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Perception of Players vs PFF Data Reality

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; The Saints Defense is perceived by many fans as a top 5-10 unit. The reality is that the defense has 0 players with a score in the 90's. 0 players with a score in the 80's. And the only player ...

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Old 11-02-2024, 11:48 AM   #1
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Perception of Players vs PFF Data Reality

The Saints Defense is perceived by many fans as a top 5-10 unit. The reality is that the defense has 0 players with a score in the 90's. 0 players with a score in the 80's. And the only player with a score in the 70's is Carl Granderson at 73.7. The 70's is an average starter, so the vast majority of the Saints defense is below average and the defense has 0 great players. Davis and Mathieu were still very good in 2023 but their age pointed to a great risk of decline and that decline happened. Cam Jordan was poor in 2023 but fans argued that a twisted ankle was the explanation and he would be back to 100% this year, while age argued the twisted ankled would only get worse, and now Cam is playing like both ankles were twisted. Lattimore is hurt half of games and has no been above average for years, but has relied on one big game shutting down an elite receiver to cover for other games of letting no-names go off on him, and its still more of the same. Adebo was elite last year but has been inconsistent through his career, reverted to the mean, and his career is likely over with his injury. The perceived elite defense does not exist.

Bryan Bresee is perceived as a promising young asset the Saints can build around because with his long arms he picks up garbage sacks created by other players pressure, while the Saints are left with virtually 10 men on the field vs the run. The reality is Bryan Bresee's 37.3 PFF score is the worst of any player on the Saints 53 man roster. He is 186th of 198 qualifying DIs on PFF with his grade yet 10th of 198 in snaps. I don't think we should cut him, as his size and athleticism offer potential with further coaching and development, but he is a back of the roster project who would struggle to garner a 5th round pick in compensation being masqueraded as a solid hit of a 1st round pick. As a draft pick in his second year, Bresee is comparable yet slightly worse to Bryce Young who ranks 56th of 60 QBs with a 40.8 PFF score and Will Levis who ranks 54th of 60 QBs with a 44.9 PFF score. He is a bottom 5-10% range performer with more starts than his performance merits who has an off chance to turn the corner but more likely should never start again beginning tomorrow. Every backup we have is a clear significant upgrade.

Alvin Kamara is perceived as a franchise RB worth every penny of his new contract that makes him the #2 paid RB in the league. The reality is that his PFF score of 70.4, ranking 26th of 56 halfbacks, represents a quality starter on a team with poor backups, but not an elite talent. And with age 30 coming up, its likely only downhill from here. Kamara has good starts due to tons of usage but has been essentially a 4ypc if your lucky RB since 2021. Ultimately Kamara is clearly inferior to running backs earning 2/3rds or less of his salary with much less guaranteed money: Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, and Joe Mixon. We are imagining that a decent starter is truly special due to nostalgia and due to failures in the draft and free agency that have led to no real competition.

We perceive Marshon Lattimore as being still a superstar when healthy. The reality is that his PFF grade is 69.5, good for 45th among 201 corners. What that indicates is that he is an average #2 corner who has good games and bad games, not a star at this point. And as his health has deteriorated over the years, he has not had a PFF score above 70 since 2021. He is a player who should be making Tyrann Mathieu and Demario Davis money if that, and in no way is anything approaching a $20 million value player. Lattimore's PFF score is only 2-3 points above Kool Aid and Payton, and with the age gap they are likely to surpass him next year.

We perceive Tyrann Mathieu and Demario Davis as continuing to be ageless stars on an elite defensive lineup. The truth is that both have PFF scores in the low 60's indicating borderline adequate starters / good backup territory. We knew the end was coming and now its half way here. They are no unstartable and they are better than some backups, but at this point Mathieu's PFF is below Howden and Amadi and Davis's has fallen below Werner and former Saints Baun and Elliss, although he is still slightly better than the Saints truly meager backup LB corps.

Derek Carr is perceived as a major liability who if only he was a little better could win with our amazing roster, but actually through 5 games (very small sample size) this year he is having a career year and to some degree carrying our weak roster. But if you look at Carr's PFF scores over his career he is anything but consistent, starting with his second year (he was rough as a rookie) his PFF scores are 76, 85, 69, 73, 80, 85, 78, 67, 77, 88. Essentially Carr is having a good year but throughout his career he has consistently drifted from average to very good to average to very good over and over. Thats a reasonable assessment of what to expect from Carr.

There is no question that Carr is a starter in this league but its his previous 10 years experience already prove he is not taking a mediocre to poor roster to the big game, he is an average to streaky good QB who needs an elite team around him that we dont have. He is best in a Shannahan style offense that relies on physicality from his targets, whereas we have some of the most finesse receivers in the league, no decent TE, and a converted 3rd down RB used to a light load of carries. This is a mediocre to poor roster that is not suited to Carr's style of offense. There are 3 players with an 80 or above PFF score on this roster: Carr, McCoy, and Olave. The highest PFF score on the defense is Granderson with We have the same number of non-QBs with an 80+ PFF score on the roster as the Raiders, who Carr could never achieve success with. By contract so our 2 non-QB players with 80+ PFF the Eagles have 7. They also have Zach Baun whose 73.8 PFF tops anyone on our defense.

The fact is we are paying $30 million this year, $40 million next year, and $50 million the following year for a league average QB who has an entire career of being streaky so sometimes he is a 80 PFF above average QB 5-10 and sometimes he is a 60 PFF below average QB 20-25 but overall he is just an average starting QB with 11 years of data that says he won't be consistently elite and needs an elite roster to win. Meanwhile we clearly have a below average roster and a defense with zero present day stars, all relying on name recognition from the past. We won't get to the playoffs with this roster but if we did, we would get there with Carr, who has only appeared in one playoff game, a loss, where he committed two turnovers to one passing TD. So while Carr may possibly be a valuable QB to a team that has a complete roster except for the QB and is desperate to just make the playoffs to show its possible, he makes no sense for a broke team with a lousy QB and a recent history of making the playoffs but facing great disappointment in playoff games. By the time we rebuilt the roster to be elite enough around Carr to get him to the playoffs, Carr would be in his late 30's playing his second playoff game of his career, and we might find out, over $250 million in, that he just doesnt have what it takes for the big stage.

Veterans can be useful leading a locker room. But they can also be a problem because as their talents fade, their names still allow them to 'set the standard' for what success looks like. With the Saints, all the veterans have faded except Erik McCoy and Derek Carr, who play Center and QB, positions there is only one of on the field. So when our young players look at Jordan, Davis, Mathieu, Lattimore, Kamara, etc, they are seeing what the Saints have held out as the gold standard, and that standard is mediocrity. We are trotting out the senior tour and telling rookies this is what excellence looks like. In the end, we can keep this delusion and lose more and more, or we can rebuild. There is no more core that we can win around.
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Old 11-02-2024, 11:55 AM   #2
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Re: Perception of Players vs PFF Data Reality

Originally Posted by BakoSaint View Post
The Saints Defense is perceived by many fans as a top 5-10 unit. The reality is that the defense has 0 players with a score in the 90's. 0 players with a score in the 80's. And the only player with a score in the 70's is Carl Granderson at 73.7. The 70's is an average starter, so the vast majority of the Saints defense is below average and the defense has 0 great players. Davis and Mathieu were still very good in 2023 but their age pointed to a great risk of decline and that decline happened. Cam Jordan was poor in 2023 but fans argued that a twisted ankle was the explanation and he would be back to 100% this year, while age argued the twisted ankled would only get worse, and now Cam is playing like both ankles were twisted. Lattimore is hurt half of games and has no been above average for years, but has relied on one big game shutting down an elite receiver to cover for other games of letting no-names go off on him, and its still more of the same. Adebo was elite last year but has been inconsistent through his career, reverted to the mean, and his career is likely over with his injury. The perceived elite defense does not exist.

Bryan Bresee is perceived as a promising young asset the Saints can build around because with his long arms he picks up garbage sacks created by other players pressure, while the Saints are left with virtually 10 men on the field vs the run. The reality is Bryan Bresee's 37.3 PFF score is the worst of any player on the Saints 53 man roster. He is 186th of 198 qualifying DIs on PFF with his grade yet 10th of 198 in snaps. I don't think we should cut him, as his size and athleticism offer potential with further coaching and development, but he is a back of the roster project who would struggle to garner a 5th round pick in compensation being masqueraded as a solid hit of a 1st round pick. As a draft pick in his second year, Bresee is comparable yet slightly worse to Bryce Young who ranks 56th of 60 QBs with a 40.8 PFF score and Will Levis who ranks 54th of 60 QBs with a 44.9 PFF score. He is a bottom 5-10% range performer with more starts than his performance merits who has an off chance to turn the corner but more likely should never start again beginning tomorrow. Every backup we have is a clear significant upgrade.

Alvin Kamara is perceived as a franchise RB worth every penny of his new contract that makes him the #2 paid RB in the league. The reality is that his PFF score of 70.4, ranking 26th of 56 halfbacks, represents a quality starter on a team with poor backups, but not an elite talent. And with age 30 coming up, its likely only downhill from here. Kamara has good starts due to tons of usage but has been essentially a 4ypc if your lucky RB since 2021. Ultimately Kamara is clearly inferior to running backs earning 2/3rds or less of his salary with much less guaranteed money: Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, and Joe Mixon. We are imagining that a decent starter is truly special due to nostalgia and due to failures in the draft and free agency that have led to no real competition.

We perceive Marshon Lattimore as being still a superstar when healthy. The reality is that his PFF grade is 69.5, good for 45th among 201 corners. What that indicates is that he is an average #2 corner who has good games and bad games, not a star at this point. And as his health has deteriorated over the years, he has not had a PFF score above 70 since 2021. He is a player who should be making Tyrann Mathieu and Demario Davis money if that, and in no way is anything approaching a $20 million value player. Lattimore's PFF score is only 2-3 points above Kool Aid and Payton, and with the age gap they are likely to surpass him next year.

We perceive Tyrann Mathieu and Demario Davis as continuing to be ageless stars on an elite defensive lineup. The truth is that both have PFF scores in the low 60's indicating borderline adequate starters / good backup territory. We knew the end was coming and now its half way here. They are no unstartable and they are better than some backups, but at this point Mathieu's PFF is below Howden and Amadi and Davis's has fallen below Werner and former Saints Baun and Elliss, although he is still slightly better than the Saints truly meager backup LB corps.

Derek Carr is perceived as a major liability who if only he was a little better could win with our amazing roster, but actually through 5 games (very small sample size) this year he is having a career year and to some degree carrying our weak roster. But if you look at Carr's PFF scores over his career he is anything but consistent, starting with his second year (he was rough as a rookie) his PFF scores are 76, 85, 69, 73, 80, 85, 78, 67, 77, 88. Essentially Carr is having a good year but throughout his career he has consistently drifted from average to very good to average to very good over and over. Thats a reasonable assessment of what to expect from Carr.

There is no question that Carr is a starter in this league but its his previous 10 years experience already prove he is not taking a mediocre to poor roster to the big game, he is an average to streaky good QB who needs an elite team around him that we dont have. He is best in a Shannahan style offense that relies on physicality from his targets, whereas we have some of the most finesse receivers in the league, no decent TE, and a converted 3rd down RB used to a light load of carries. This is a mediocre to poor roster that is not suited to Carr's style of offense. There are 3 players with an 80 or above PFF score on this roster: Carr, McCoy, and Olave. The highest PFF score on the defense is Granderson with We have the same number of non-QBs with an 80+ PFF score on the roster as the Raiders, who Carr could never achieve success with. By contract so our 2 non-QB players with 80+ PFF the Eagles have 7. They also have Zach Baun whose 73.8 PFF tops anyone on our defense.

The fact is we are paying $30 million this year, $40 million next year, and $50 million the following year for a league average QB who has an entire career of being streaky so sometimes he is a 80 PFF above average QB 5-10 and sometimes he is a 60 PFF below average QB 20-25 but overall he is just an average starting QB with 11 years of data that says he won't be consistently elite and needs an elite roster to win. Meanwhile we clearly have a below average roster and a defense with zero present day stars, all relying on name recognition from the past. We won't get to the playoffs with this roster but if we did, we would get there with Carr, who has only appeared in one playoff game, a loss, where he committed two turnovers to one passing TD. So while Carr may possibly be a valuable QB to a team that has a complete roster except for the QB and is desperate to just make the playoffs to show its possible, he makes no sense for a broke team with a lousy QB and a recent history of making the playoffs but facing great disappointment in playoff games. By the time we rebuilt the roster to be elite enough around Carr to get him to the playoffs, Carr would be in his late 30's playing his second playoff game of his career, and we might find out, over $250 million in, that he just doesnt have what it takes for the big stage.

Veterans can be useful leading a locker room. But they can also be a problem because as their talents fate, their names still allow them to 'set the standard' for what success looks like. With the Saints, all the veterans have faded except Erik McCoy and Derek Carr, who play Center and QB, positions there is only one of on the field. So when our young players look at Jordan, Davis, Mathieu, Lattimore, Kamara, etc, they are seeing what the Saints have held out as the gold standard, and that standard is mediocrity. We are trotting out the senior tour and telling rookies this is what excellence looks like. In the end, we can keep this delusion and lose more and more, or we can rebuild. There is no more core that we can win around.
Also, no matter how much some fans tend to poo poo it, the fact remains that we have a weak presence at the position of HEAD COACH, and no matter how many flies we try to swat around the room, that significant bit of poo, stinks up the whole building.
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Old 11-02-2024, 12:13 PM   #3
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Re: Perception of Players vs PFF Data Reality

Originally Posted by Sinner View Post
Also, no matter how much some fans tend to poo poo it, the fact remains that we have a weak presence at the position of HEAD COACH, and no matter how many flies we try to swat around the room, that significant bit of poo, stinks up the whole building.
Yeah ultimately DA is such a bad coach he is not respectable as a leader and every day he remains degrades the team. Veteran players support him because he writes them big checks after they are washed, not because they have any level of respect for his abilities. They says the pay is great, the job is low pressure, and they get January off to spend with family so they can't complain. Even if we can't find a good permanent replacement it would be better to dump DA than to continue with Senior Citizen Santa Claus as our head coach. We would be better off with even a mediocre bridge head coach.
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Old 11-02-2024, 12:51 PM   #4
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Re: Perception of Players vs PFF Data Reality

Originally Posted by BakoSaint View Post
Yeah ultimately DA is such a bad coach he is not respectable as a leader and every day he remains degrades the team. Veteran players support him because he writes them big checks after they are washed, not because they have any level of respect for his abilities. They says the pay is great, the job is low pressure, and they get January off to spend with family so they can't complain. Even if we can't find a good permanent replacement it would be better to dump DA than to continue with Senior Citizen Santa Claus as our head coach. We would be better off with even a mediocre bridge head coach.
Dennis Allen has nothing to do with paying the players nor with what they may get paid. Sorry, Bako, you went full bull**** with this. And I'm talking about this comment. Not wasting my time reading your latest novella.
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Old 11-02-2024, 01:04 PM   #5
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Re: Perception of Players vs PFF Data Reality

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
Dennis Allen has nothing to do with paying the players nor with what they may get paid. Sorry, Bako, you went full bull**** with this. And I'm talking about this comment. Not wasting my time reading your latest novella.
Hey Bako.. He rolled his eyes and went straight to your latest novella.
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Old 11-02-2024, 01:22 PM   #6
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Re: Perception of Players vs PFF Data Reality

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
Dennis Allen has nothing to do with paying the players nor with what they may get paid. Sorry, Bako, you went full bull**** with this. And I'm talking about this comment. Not wasting my time reading your latest novella.
That's right, with Mickey Loomis' extensive football background from the Intuit university of hard knocks, I am sure Dennis Allen has 'nothing' to do with the teams football decisions.

Also, even if say he didnt and the contracts were 100% guided by Mickey Loomis, Jose Cuervo, Johnny Walker, and Jim Beam, nonetheless Dennis Allen is still basically the chosen godson of Loomis. If Loomis is the goose that lays the golden eggs for washed players, paying them double their market value or more, and Loomis has publicly backed DA, do you really expect the players to publicly challenge DA which would in effect be a challenge to Loomis?

If you were struggling at work, knew your performance and sales had been downhill for awhile and due to various circumstances would likely remain that way, and you were coasting to retirement in a couple years, yet the boss writing your checks kept giving you giant raises and bonuses that made no sense, would you publicly challenge your boss for also giving similar treatment to middle management who weren't performing, or would you shut your mouth and cash the checks and say that the boss and middle management are all fine?
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Old 11-02-2024, 02:06 PM   #7
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Re: Perception of Players vs PFF Data Reality

Originally Posted by BakoSaint View Post
That's right, with Mickey Loomis' extensive football background from the Intuit university of hard knocks, I am sure Dennis Allen has 'nothing' to do with the teams football decisions.

Also, even if say he didnt and the contracts were 100% guided by Mickey Loomis, Jose Cuervo, Johnny Walker, and Jim Beam, nonetheless Dennis Allen is still basically the chosen godson of Loomis. If Loomis is the goose that lays the golden eggs for washed players, paying them double their market value or more, and Loomis has publicly backed DA, do you really expect the players to publicly challenge DA which would in effect be a challenge to Loomis?

If you were struggling at work, knew your performance and sales had been downhill for awhile and due to various circumstances would likely remain that way, and you were coasting to retirement in a couple years, yet the boss writing your checks kept giving you giant raises and bonuses that made no sense, would you publicly challenge your boss for also giving similar treatment to middle management who weren't performing, or would you shut your mouth and cash the checks and say that the boss and middle management are all fine?
I wouldn't struggling at work so none of that crap matters.

Dennis Allen has had limited input from what I have been told on player acquisition. As head coach he would have no input on how they are acquired, how much they are paid, or how long they are under contract. Only a very limited number of head coaches have ever had that type of power. You can slam him for leadership or coaching deficiencies, but when it comes to the financial end of things you are talking out of your ass.
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