BakoSaint

Just before the season I started drafting a message about my pre-season outlook and why I predicted an 8-9 record. After starting to detail all my concerns, I had something else come up and moved the post to a word file so i could save it, then continued there. As the start of the season was approaching I realized it was getting too long and nobody would want to read it preseason, so I posted a much shorter summary with the 8-9 prediction. Still, with how the season has gone, I think the prediction is more interesting now, as many, but not all aspects of it have come true. I never quite finished it, for instance I never got around to including my concerns about Taysoms Hill's durability in a Kittle Jurczyk type roll that I have expressed in many other threads.

Still, here it is. You have my word that I have not edited this since pre-season.

My prediction for the Saints 2024 record is 8-9. I know to some this impossibly pessimistic, basically can’t happen, I am blind to the dramatic improvements that will mean the Saints cannot possibly do worse than last year and overall are Super Bowl contenders. But the fact is the same people have been saying the same things the last 3 years, predicting at least 12 wins each year, and each year the Saints have won 7-9 games. My view is that the addition of a young unproven offensive coordinator, a defensive end on a prove-it one year contract who has had mixed results in the past, and the usual story of players injured last year who could be healthier and an NFL draft that the team participated in that could be logic for all 32 teams to have better records in 2024, cannot necessarily be counted on as major improvements, and although an easier than average schedule, the Saints 2024 schedule will be much more challenging than 2023.
Here is my analysis and prediction for the Saints 2024 Record. I will separate this into three parts: Team Factors Pluses and Minuses and Schedule Factors.

Team Factors / Pluses:

Klint Kubiak. The biggest talking point for the Saints 2024 season is that a new offensive coordinator will save the day. I am skeptical of this point. Change had to be tried, but whether it makes any difference remains a toss-up in my view. The idea is that because Kubiak spent 1 season last year in a relatively secondary role of ‘passing games coordinator’, which amounts to co-assistant-offensive-coordinator a Kyle Shannahan 49ers offense, that Kubiak is now Kyle Shannahan 2.0. I made a whole separate thread about the legend of Klint Kubiak. I hope he is an improvement. The fact is that even when Kyle Shannan 1.0 came to the 49ers as head coach, not merely coordinator, in 2017, his records the first two years were 6-10 and 4-12. Before that, he was 8-8 his first year as Falcons OC, and in his second year the Falcons went 11-5. Kyle Shannahan himself has never turned around a team in 1 year, so I think its reasonable to be skeptical that some assistant who spent one year two levels below Shannahan on the chain of command has now surpassed the master. This could also mean the offense takes time to find the right personnel. We can’t tell from vanilla preseason games if Derek Carr will be able to execute the offense well. We can’t tell if Olave and Shaheed, two speedy vertical and sometimes injury prone receivers will be able to heavily target the middle of the field and stay on the field. Juwon Johnson is not George Kittle. Beyond this, the prior year Kubiak worked with Nathaniel Hackett in Denver, which definitely shows the downside of his skills if the 49ers year shows the upside. Kubiak has bounced around a lot. If he felt the 49ers loved him, he might have stuck around there are heir apparent to their OC position which has been a reliable springboard to HC, but he did not do that. Dennis Allen has not been a very successful head coach for his 5 year head coaching career, and there is not a lot of precedent of a young offensive coordinator savings a struggling head coach and bringing championships and glory. Also, Pete Carmichael was a proven Super Bowl winning offensive coordinator and despite bumbling plays, his offense finished strong at the end of the year. Kubiak is worth a try but its not clear he is better. One remark Loomis made in an interview was that Kubiak was a very “quiet” guy, could be that Kubiak is an intelligent technician but not a charistmatic leader, and will struggle from some of the same issues as Dennis Allen. Overall I think we had to make a change at OC, and we got who we could get without the most attractive opening, but I think that in the short term a big improvement is very unlikely, I would value Kubiak more like adding a mid-tier veteran starter not like adding Peyton Manning or Drew Brees. Its possible Kubiak adds no more than say Justin Simmons, Johan Dotson, or Hollywood Brown add to their respective new teams, but still it could be some addition.

Chase Young. The Saints lacked an elite pass rush in 2023. Young is coming off an injury and has been criticized on work ethic and was dumped by 2 teams, but he has the talent and potential to provide more than the medium-level pass rush skills of Granderson and the fading pass rush skills of Cam Jordan did last year. Its not definite he will provide that, but it’s an upside, and if he struggles we still have Jordan and Granderson so he is unlikely to be a downgrade if he rides the bench. Its also conceivable that Turner could get healthy or Breese could take over a starting role and get a lot of sacks.

Minuses:

Oline. Yes we drafted a 1st round tackle. We also lost Ram for the year, and lost Hurst and Peat, so 3 starters gone replaced with one rookie. The rookie tackle is looking good, but is likely a downgrade from Ram in the short term, as few Tackles will dominate their first year. Even though Ram played RT, I will swap the positions on tackle to compare the closest offsets in skill. At our second best Tackle starter, we go from Peat, who was serviceable if unspectacular, to Penning, who has been a disaster except for an 8 day stretch in preseason where he got away with holding in a vanilla offense against the second string and looked OK. I don’t trust 8 days of improvement versus 3 years of struggle and consider Penning a major risk. And we foolishly gave up the guy who beat Penning for his job at the end of last season, Cam Irving, over $1.2 million salary, probably to anoint Penning to justify the draft investment. Then at LG we lost James Hurst who was serviceable, and have only totally unproven scrubs. Basically our oline was a problem last year, got Carr hurt multiple times last year. Last year we had two stars in Ram and McCoy and 3 servicable oline in Ruiz, Peat, and Hurst, then a bunch of scrubs. This year we have McCoy, a rookie we hope can replace Ram but who may likely go through some growing pains, Ruiz who remains serviceable, and a bunch of scrubs, 2 of which will start. I consider our oline problems to possibly outweigh or equal out the Kubiak addition.

Risk of Internal Dissent. Its easy to forget with how quickly media narratives change, but the Saints 2023 season ended with the last play being the Saints team on the field openly defying head coach Dennis Allen by running a TD play from the victory formation. After the incident Allen seemed angryin his press conference, but in the coming days the incident was quickly swept under the rug. But in my opinion, the team had no option other than to try to sweep the incident under the rug, because if it was an open mutiny, the Saints salary cap situation did not allow the team the option of cutting or trading all the offenders and their open supporters on the team. The team needed to extend and restructure most of their contracts to get under the salary cap when they were over the cap, and cutting or trading them would have accelerated not delayed cap hits involving prorated money and resulted in a salary cap violation. The team moved on from some dissidents whose contracts they were already preparing to let go, but I believe players like McCoy, Ruiz, Olave, etc were also on the field for that play, and some other veteran defenders supported it, and the team had no power to discipline those players who they had to restructure and extend to get under the cap. Williams had a guaranteed contract for 2024. Some of the players who did move on, such as Jameis Winston, may also have been leaders in the locker room, and much more charismatic leaders than Dennis Allen, filling the void in his leadership through the 2023 season. This offseason, the team has seen holdouts and grievances from Kamara (who we shouldn’t give more money) and some critical social media posts on who made the roster (I forget who that was, maybe Mathieu?) My point is that the way last season ended may be the tip of the iceberg. Its possible the team tested Allen, most faced no repercussions, and they will be emboldened and do what they want all year . Its also possible they will be rudderless without the veteran leaders who were dismissed. I think there is more risk of DA ‘losing the locker room’ in 2024. As we saw with the 2022 Broncos and Nathaniel Hackett, when an ineffective head coach loses the locker rooms, Klint Kubiak calling plays won’t put humpty dumpty back together again.

Backup QB. Carr got injured multiple times last year. He missed parts of a couple games. It is amazing he never missed a full game, and likely the second time it was only because of lucky timing with a bye that he didn’t. He had two concussions. This year Carr is 1 year older, with probably a worse oline, with more rookies and scrubs, learning a very new offense, with 2 more concussions under his belt. And the only counter argument to all these negative factors is that the new scheme will magically cover for them all. Because you know it’s the SF scheme and its not likely any SF QBs have ever been injured in the season, except for example every QB on their roster at any point during the 2022 season. Even if the scheme just magically covers for some, maybe Carr just has the same number of concussions and takes the same number of big hits as last year. Well with being a year older and having two more past concussions in his history, I think Carr misses more time with the same hits. Now, I think we have a lot more upside long term with Rattler and Haener than we did with Winston. But Winston was a proven QB who had thrown for 5000 yards, and Rattler and Haener are mid rounders with no regular season experience. So I think you have to factor in Rattler or Haener playing some, maybe just a couple games, and having some growing pains. We got to face a lot of backup QBs last year with our QB1 starting every game, but that luck may not continue.

Aging of core players. The Saints were among the oldest rosters in the league, but depending on the source this year it varies from one of the oldest to middle of the range. But for the Saints it is especially a lot of the core starters and top paid players who are older. We have young special teams and backups. Demario Davis was a beast in 2023, but father time always wins, and a player that age has a much higher risk of sudden decline. Same goes for Mathieu. Cam Jordan suddenly declined last year and had 2 sacks blamed on an unreported ankle. At that age ankles usually get worse. Lattimore missed half the season the last two years, and it might be more likely he missed more than half, not less, this year, the way age trends. We saw age hit Ram and Jordan last year. We saw Kamara and Lattimore becoming less reliable. It could continue to hit those players and Davis and Mathieu this year, even harder as they are all a year older. Also while some expect Carr to remain at his best until 40 because that’s what players like Brees, Manning, Brady, and Favre did, other top QBs like Ryan, Culpepper, McNabb, Wilson, etc have declined a lot in their mid-30’s. Carr could easily lose a step, especially learning a new system and taking a beating behind a bad oline.

Wide Receiver. Olave/Thomas/Shaheed were 1a/1b/1c last year. Probably I would consider Olave a WR1 and Thomas and Shaheed WR2’s but their performances and abilities were close. Thomas did play 10 games. Now Thomas is gone, and for the salary cap that’s good, but the Saints did not replace him with anyone but late round rookies and UDFA and journeymen who are not even WR3 level. So the receiving core is probably a little worse. Shaheed has seemed to be banged up. We may be going to a system that suits our WRs less even if it’s a good system. Olave and Shaheed both reliably miss games. WR could be a bit of a problem, not a major thing, but a risk to cost us a game or two. The Saints will probably be a bit worse at WR in 2024 than 2023 because Michael Thomas did unexpectedly contribute for 10 games at a starting caliber level, and although it was smart to move on, no receiver has been added who would be projected to contribute on that level.

Financial disadvantage in free agency. The Saints headed toward the new league year more over the 2024 salary cap than any other team in the league. They got under the cap by restructuring most of their veteran contracts, but this still put them with less ‘real’ room under the cap than the other 31 teams, that did not have to restructure so many contracts, and thus had that extra card in their back pocket to add cap space as needed. The Saints biggest plunge in free agency was a 1 year $13 million deal with Chase Young. Some useful depth pieces were allowed to walk away. Some cap was finally spent eating the dead cap to move on from a couple aging veterans for the long term good like Michael Thomas, Andrus Peat, Marcus Maye, Jameis Winston, etc even though extending and restructuring and adding void years would always cost less on a one year basis. A few other players were added but not much. Unlikely previous years, the team did not go all in and restructure every contract to make a bigger splash, and in the long term I think that’s good and hope Loomis is seeing the light for long term planning, but in the short term even a ‘soft rebuild’ could cost some games.

Inflated 2023 Results. The Saints were 9-8 in 2023 but only against a historically easy schedule. The schedule looked easy from the start, but usually teams surprise and its never as easy as it looked. This time it was. Not only that, but it was even easier than the final math looked. In addition to facing weak teams the Saints faced many weak backup QBs. And the final two weeks of the season, the Saints faced opponents with little to play for, the Bucs who could afford to look past the Saints because all they had to do the next week was beat the worst team in the league, the Panthers, to win the division, and the Falcons who had nothing to play for, unless the Panthers beat the Bucs which was not happening. The 2023 Saints did not spit their games against playoff teams and come up just short, they lost to ever playoff team they played except the second matchup against the Bucs, who ‘could clinch’ against the Saints but knew they didn’t really have to with the Panthers up next. In reality, I think considering the historically easy schedule it is better to look at the Saints as a 7-10 to 8-9 type team gifted 1-2 wins by schedule.

Overall with these Team Factors I am not convinced the Saints will be a much better in 2024 than 2023. It seems most likely to me that they will be similar.

Schedule Factors:
The Saints had a historically easy schedule in 2023, one of the easiest since 2000, whereas in 2024 they have one of the easier schedules of the year, but nothing of note on a decade type scale for ease. Also in a typical season few schedules end up being as hard or easy as predicted, teams revert to the mean, teams that were exceptionally healthy and high performing with stars in their prime see injuries return and stars pass their prime or leave in free agency, while teams that struggled get new draft picks, new coaches, new free agents, and see young players enter their primes. The Saints 2023 schedule was unique in that it really was about as super easy as advertised, whereas in 2024 its quite possible the Saints schedule wont be so easy as advertised, due to teams like the Falcons who added 3 veteran pro bowlers, the Panthers who were as bad as could be in 2023 and might bounce back, and teams like the Raiders with a much better head coach and the Redskins with a high upside rookie QB. If the team stayed the same and only the schedule changed, you might expect the Saints to go from 9-8 with a historically easy schedule in 2023 to 8-9 with a leading easy schedule for the year in 2024. But if the Saints schedule turns out to be league average with teams like the Panthers, Falcons, Redskins, and even Chiefs (11-5 was not their ceiling) improving, 7-10 could be a risk.

Overall, I really have to weight Kubiak and Young as fairly meaningful improvements to even break even with these very real minuses.

Breaking down the Saints Schedule, I see 4 groups of games:

Tough 6: 6 games against playoff teams, excluding the division rival Bucs: Dallas, Philly, KC, Cleveland, LA Rams, Green Bay. Last year the Saints did not beat any current year playoff teams outside their division. They did beat two 2022 playoff teams that lost their starting QBs and greatly regressed, but its hard to price opponents losing starting QBs into the record again because its just as likely the Saints will lose their starting QB. Although Carr has a history of not missing games, he is now getting older and had 2 concussions this year and plays behind a poor oline. If the Tough 6 all return to 2023 form, Dennis Allen could easily lose all 6 of these games. These are the games he lost last year. But could the scrappy Packers with their suddenly mid becomes star QB, be the 2023 Giants? Could be. And will the Browns defense be able to cover if DeShaun Watson struggles again, or if Amari Cooper starts to show rust from age? Maybe, maybe not. The Rams lost Aaron Donald and if Stafford goes down the Rams could be weak, but would still have a big edge at head coach. A lot of these opponents, I need the QB to go down or struggle a lot to see a path to victory, and Derek Carr is mortal too. I see a range of outcomes from 3-3 to 0-6 in these games, but 2-4 seems about right to me, even a little optimistic, since Dennis Allen has always tended to lose more than win against these kind of teams.

Division Rival 4: 4 games against tough division opponents. I think the additions of Cousins, Judon, Simmons, and a potentially dangerous backup QB (though the pick was a stupid move) make Atlanta a much better opponent than last year. And the Bucs are reigning division champs returning a similar, but also older, team. The Bucs edged out the Saints last year. Yes they had the same record and the Bucs just won a tiebreaker. But the Bucs played a much tougher schedule facing Philly, Detroit, Buffalo, Houston, SF, etc. The Falcons meanwhile added a questionable coach but tons of new weapons and a slightly better QB than Carr. I see both as slightly better than the Saints. So against better teams I think 1-3 is the most likely scenario although 2-2 is definitely a similar probability and 0-4 could also be possible against teams the Saints 0-2 against last year. Atlanta definitely upgraded and the Bucs QB doesn’t need to learn a new offense.

Dangerous 4: 4 games against non-playoff 2023 teams made more dangerous by improvements at head coach and/or QB. The Broncos have Sean Payton in his return to New Orleans, and played at a similar level to the Saints in 2023, losing one more game, in a much tougher division, but getting more high quality wins, including wins over playoff teams KC, GB, Buf, and Cleveland. No doubt Sean Payton has at least a 50/50 chance to win in his return to New Orleans. Those playoff wins show Sean has something as a HC that DA has not shown, and give Denver an edge in coaching that gives them a punchers chance. The Chargers struggled in 2023 but have a franchise QB in Justin Hebert and now a proven winner in head coach Jim Harbaugh. Again I have to give Harbaugh at least a 50% chance, especially paired with Hebert and Bosa, to beat Dennis Allen. The Raiders have an unproven, but so far charismatic and winning head coach, in Antonio Pierce. The Raiders were 5-4 after Pierce took over. If an unproven but exciting young OC makes the Saints automatically 12-5, the same upgrade at head coach to a young exciting leader makes the Raiders 17-0. But realistically I give the Raiders at least a 50% chance with Pierce. After he took over they had a higher win percentage than the Saints, beat KC, and laid 63 on San Diego. Finally, the Redskins added Jayden Daniels, a mobile QB who the Saints could have trouble with, and upgraded their head coach to Dan Quinn, who is at least as good as Dennis Allen, likely much better since he has shown he could actually work together with a Kyle Shannahan style OC (the OG himself) to get to a Super Bowl, something that is just theory for DA. The Redskins are the weakest of these teams, but I still see them as dangerous. I see each game as a tossup. 2-2 is the natural result though 3-1 or 1-3 could be equally probable. I see all of these teams with an edge at HC, but the Saints have some roster edges but also some big weaknesses like oline. The Saints lost to two essentially rookie mobile QBs last year in Love and Stroud, so I can easily see them losing to Daniels.

Easy 3: 3 games against very bad teams. 2 games against the Panthers who return a very similar lineup in 2024 to 2023 due to trading away their #1 pick. Its possible their new head coach makes a difference. Its possible Bryce Young improves in year 2. But overall they have a weak oline, a QB who looked overmatched, very limited weapons on offense, and have continued to trade away assets like Burns. Probably they remain a very bad team. 1 game against the New York Giants, who have a lame duck QB on a rip off contract, lost their best offensive weapon, and may be in rebuild mode. They were a playoff team in 2022 so you never know, but probably they remain a bad team, and maybe they are so bad they get a top pick to take a new QB. I think the most likely result is 3-0 but one of these teams improve somewhat or the Saints having an off week is possible so maybe 2-1 is realistic too on the ‘any given Sunday’ basis.

So assuming the Saints are a somewhat similar team, or even slightly improved on a 2023 season when they might have been 7-10 with a normal schedule but were 9-8 with a historically weak schedule, essentially a .500 type team, how do I see them doing against their 2024 schedule?

My prediction is 8-9.

Range: Tough 6: 3-3 to 0-6. Division Rival 4: 3-1 to 0-4. Dangerous 4: 3-1 to 1-3. Easy 3: 3-0 to 2-1.
Best Guess: Tough 6: 2-4, Division Rival 4: 1-3, Dangerous 4: 2-2, Easy 3: 3-0. Total record: 8-9
Best Case: 12-5, Worst Case: 3-14. Taken from limits of range.

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Update for season to date.

My best guess was that the Saints would go 2-4 against their out of division opponents who made the playoffs in 2023. Currently they are 2-3 and face the Packers next week in Green Bay with Haener or Rattler likely to start, so it looks like that will be accurate.

My best guess was that the Saints would go 2-2 against the Bucs and Falcons. Currently they are 1-2 with the Bucs in Tampa remaining in Week 18 and skepticism that Carr will be back. So 1-3 looks more likely.

My best guess was that the Saints would go 2-2 against the Broncos, Chargers, Redskins, and Raiders, who all looked to me like dangerous teams despite their 2023 struggles. In reality 3 have turned out to be very dangerous while the Raiders have completely flopped. The Saints are 0-2 against these teams currently, looking to go 0-3 versus the Commanders, but will be favored to beat the Raiders in the dome going to 1-3 against this group.

My best guess was that the Saints could go 3-0 against the Panthers and Giants because these teams are so bad. They are indeed the two worst teams in the NFC but the Saints managed to drop a game to the Panthers going 2-1 against this group.