BakoSaint

People who say the Saints cannot cut Derek Carr because it would trigger a $50 million dead cap hit are wrong. It would trigger that dead cap hit but it can be done.

Keeping Derek Carr and not restructuring his contract would also trigger a $51.5 million cap hit, so a standard cut actually saves $1.5 million on the cap. And designating Carr a Post-June-1 cut could actually save $30 million, very similar to the $31 million saved with a restructure.

The Saints are projected to be $63.8 million over the 2025 salary cap and restructuring Carr with no true pay cut, ie converting his $30 million base salary and $10 million roster bonus to restructuring bonuses, could save $31 million, but this is NOT the only way for the Saints to get under the cap.

The Saints can save $70 million on the cap while not touching the contracts of Carr, Jordan, and Hill by designating Ram a Post-June-1 cut, cutting Jamaal Williams, and restructuring LITERALLY EVERYONE ELSE whose contract can be restructured to save $0.5 million or more (ie we would not restructure players like Hayball and Tipton whose restructure potential is pennies).

The Saints also have even more potential to get under the cap without restructuring Carr if certain other players voluntarily cooperate in creative contract arrangements. For example if Jordan, Ram, Davis, Mathieu, Olave, Hill, or others decided to retire and get on the Saints good side for post-career opportunities, they could restructure their contracts in March to change their base salary to $1 million with no guaranteed bonus attached, then they could wait until June 1 to officially retire or be cut. This would give the most favorable cap benefit possible, reducing the 2025 cap hit even more than a restructure or post-June-1 designation, for various salary cap rule reasons that would be a longer discussion. Basically by reducing their salary there would immediately be cap savings just like a restructure and unlike a post-June-1 designation. But by retiring or agreeing to a cut in June, there would be no dead cap hit against the 2025 cap in June, it would all hit the 2026 cap, and there would be an additional $1 million cap savings in June removing their minimum base salary.

Then if the Saints did use their other post-June-1 cut tag on Carr, they could actually save $30 million off the 2025 cap, but they dont have to do that, they may just have to threaten it.

Derek Carr is set to earn $40 million in 2025 with $50 million due in 2026. Rose colored glasses homer fans may consider this a bargain but realistically it is not. While it may be a bargain on paper for Carr's regular season statistics and some nothing that Carr may be the 15th-20th best QB earning the 15-20th best salary, there are a few red flags that would cause any other team to hesitate to offer Derek Carr $40-50 million per year. Derek Carr will be going into his 12th season as a starting QB in 2025 and will be 34 years old, entering an age window when many QBs historically began to decline rapidly with the exception of a few recent anomalies. More troubling, Carr has never won a playoff game, and had a QB rating under 70 in his only playoff appearance, so a team acquiring Carr at 34yo would not neccessarily win the transaction if he had a great regular season, because he would essentially be the 40yo virgin in the playoffs, potentially competing against 20-something with multiple playoff wins under their belts. Finally, Carr has had 3 concussions and 4 significant injuries in the past 2 years, and even if he toughed it out in the past, he is getting to be an age where he misses games when he gets hurt now. So essentially Carr has red flags on concussions, other injuries, lack of playoff experience, consistency, and losing, but at times has great regular season stats. After failing with 2 teams, he would be seen as a sort of Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Kirk Cousins, Drew Bledsoe, Andy Dalton, etc type reclamation project, but with much less playoff experience at age 34 than most of them. Russel Wilson could be seen as the upside, but Russell Wilson came with massive playoff experience for league minimum salary. The market for Derek Carr if he was a free agent or available in trade might be very limited.

Looking at Derek Carr's 2025 compensation, he has a $10 million roster bonus that is guaranteed, but a $30 million base salary that does not become guaranteed until March (if he cannot pass a physical in March we are screwed, but at this time his injuries dont look that serious). And for 2026 he has a $50 million base salary that you can argue is a fake number and place filler, but actually does matter in extreme upside and downside scenarios. For example if Carr were to play in 2025 and was great and won playoff games, his $50 million base salary for 2026 would become a starting place for negotiations with his agent talking in terms of 'new money' beyond that, and him potentially having to play for that number in 2026 after a holdout if no terms could be agreed, since he could hardly risk sitting out his age 35 season with the recent record of rusty older QBs like Watson and Rodgers. Meanwhile, in the opposite extreme if Carr played in 2025 and was mediorce, then sustained a horrific concussion or multiple ligament tear that prevented him from passing a physical by the start of the 2026 season, he could collect that $50 million base salary by default. In either case it is better for the Saints if Carr's $50 million 2026 base salary was lower, but not more guaranteed. It could also be useful for the Saints if Carr had some 2027 and beyond years on the books at reasonable salaries to protect them in case he succeeds.

Since Carr's 2025 $10 million roster bonus is already guaranteed, its a sunk cost. So the question is, if Carr was a free agent this offseason, could he do better than a $30 million guaranteed salary for 2025 and a $50 million base salary for 2026 that was not guaranteed, but could become so in the event of a severe injury? I am not sure what team would offer Carr that? Darnold may be available. Wilson may be available. Kirk Cousins may be available and the Falcons may be persuaded to pay some of his salary. Jameis Winston could be an option for some teams. Aaron Rodgers could be available. There will be QBs in the draft. Some young backups have looked good like Malik Willis and Justin Fields. Some teams could think Daniel Jones deserves a 2nd chance based on his playoff win and youth more than Carr deserves a 3rd chance based on his better regular season stats. Why break the bank for a 34yo journeyman on his 3rd team who has never won or even played well in a playoff game and has 3 concussions in the past 2 years and could be one big hit from retirement? I don't think any team would offer Carr a 2 year $80 million contract with $30 million guaranteed even if he might seem worth it on paper from regular season stats. I think he might be the odd man out considering he has more recent concussions and less playoff wins than many of the other journeyman options.

So Carr is not worth $30 million what is he worth? Maybe some team might offer him $25 million but its likely to compete or be caretaker for a young QB on a bad team with little future guarantees, much like his situation with the Saints, and he has to move, and he further reinforces his reputation as a journeyman. And I am not sure that any team would even offer that. $20 million I think it is very likely someone would offer, though no guarantees.

So if we don't straight up designate Carr a post-June-1 cut, I think it would be financially irresponsible not to pressure him to take a true pay cut. For example, what that could look like is converting his $10 million roster bonus and $30 million base salary into a $29 million restructuring bonus and $1 million base salary for a net pay cut of $10 million, reducing his 2026 base salary to $30 million plus performance bonuses with no guarantees, and adding a 2027 base salary of $30 million plus performance bonuses with no guarantees. This would protect the Saints better both if he continues to struggle or gets injured more and they need to move on, or in the unlikely scenario he finally gets his break and wins in the playoffs and they need to extend him. For Carr, it would offer the opportunity to not be cut, not risk an even lower offer or humiliation of no offers, and not cement his reputation as a journeyman bouncing between teams.

It still might make more sense to me to straight up move on with the post-June-1 cut, but I think talking Carr into a true pay cut is a good plan 1b. If Carr took such a pay cut, it would help the Saints get under the cap even better than a regular restructure, and that would free up money and an extra Post-June-1 cut designation to do the right thing with other players. The Saints could use the same money that would have been used to move on from Carr, and move on from other washed vets, perhaps rebuilding even more efficiently. Then they could revisit Carr from a better position the following offseason with more flexibility. Carr is not the worst player on the Saints team who it is most urgent to cut, but he is also not worth his current contract or the Saints best player. A compromise could be reasonable.

mapcow

50 MILLION --- just let that sink in.

SmashMouth

Sinner

Oh it’s sinking…

BakoSaint

Derek Carr is set to earn the same salary as Aaron Judge in 2025 and the same salary as LeBron James in 2026. What a bargain considering all of Carrs MVP awards and championship rings and all the times he led the league in any categories. Not to mention all the incredible upside historically from QBs who didn't win a single playoff game before age 34 going to on to win lots.