I did a cap outlook article on January 7th and at that time the expectation from overthecap was 276m. So the median here of 279.5m is only 3.5 million higher. Perhaps this could allow us to extend willie gay or foster moreau. I wouldn’t call this an explosion compared to recent cap projections or breaking news when its within 1.5% of the number 2 months ago so it doesnt change articles you read in the past month or two. Probably its better than what we though in August or something, but since then we spent money extending Kamara and making the smart move to trade Lattimore and eat the dead cap. 3.5m is good but no relevation.

https://www.firemickeyloomis.com/202...nts-salary-cap

There were no wild extensions last year. AK obviously earned an extension though. Loomis is headed away from this crippling cap scenario in just a couple of years. We are especially fortunate with the increases in the cap the last two years.

It's going to keep increasing at an even greater pace for the forseeable future. It should be past $400 million as soon as 2030.

Your expectation of 'an even greater pace' is not supported by long term data. $400 million by 2030 is possible but 5 years is a long time and that does not require such a great pace. This is the cap history going back to 1994:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cba

It is using an estimate of 275k for 2025 so thats a little out of date but if you use 280k that will be just under 10% increase still.

As you can see, a 5-8% increase per year is the norm. There has only been one decrease, 2021 due to the pandemic, and that decrease created a unique one time 'catch up' opportunity, also driven by historic inflation immediately following it.

Overall, the salary cap increase is not expected to exceed 10% this year. It has only exceeded 10% four time in 30 years: 98, 06, 22, and 24. There have been more years with less than 2.5% increase than above 10% increase. The increases from 22-24 are unsustainable long term based on existing data.

Essentially your argument is the same as every bull market stock trader in a boom right before a crash like the late 90's, mid 2000's, 1920's, etc: 'This time its different, this time it can go up forever, or at least for so long you can say the forseeable future.' The truth is that tomorrow is unforseeable.

Here are some events that could lead an end of the salary cap boom:

1. Recession, which many economist expect. When the economy crashed in 2009 there were 3 straight years with essentially no cap increase (0.19% total), followed by a 2.5% increase the fourth year, followed by increases averaging only about 7% the next 7 years, with no catch up, and then a decrease. Everyone knows that a recessions is a significant possibility now and imaginee what that would do to the Saints if they go 'all in' expecting massive increase and get zero.
2. The streaming wars, where rivals are overbidding as loss leaders, being replaced with consolidation and profit taking, typical of the tech industry as big companies push their suppliers when growth is exhausted.
3. A simple return to the norm after catching up from the pandemic year.

$400 million by 2030 would require 7.5% increase per year from 280k in 2025. This is possible but on the high end. Still, I don't like Derek Carr, and would prefer to try to find a winner before 2030.

Whatever. I'm sure you know everything.