BakoSaint

There has been some discussion that the Saints should extend Juwon Johnson's expiring contract. Johnson's case was bolstered by his late season resurgence, finishing the year with his two biggest games in weeks 16 and 17.

However, with the Saints decision to retain Derek Carr as the starter, it may not make sense to retain Johnson when you look closely at the numbers.

After a strong 2022 season with 508 yards receiving over 16 games for 32yds/game, Johnson regressed in 2023 when Derek Carr started every game, going for 368 yards in 13 games for 28 yards per game. Then in 2024 Johnson once against struggled under Carr with 249 yards receiving in 10 games for 24.9 yards/game. Conversely under Rattler, Johnson produced 299 yards in only 7 games, good for 43 yards per game, including 4 of his 5 highest yardage games of the season. This despite the Saints facing stronger opponents with more oline injuries in Rattlers starts.

Clearly, Carr and Johnson lack chemistry. With the decision to retain Carr, it could make since to save cap long term and move on from Johnson. Some team will pay for 22,24 Johnson. With Carr starting, we will get 23 Johnson. And by the time Carr is gone, Johnson will be on the wrong side of 30.

Meanwhile much of the same can be said of Foster Moreau. Of his 413 receiving yards in 2024, 242 came in the 7 games Carr missed, only 171 in the 10 games Carr played. Moreu was good for 35 yards a game with Rattler (projected over a full season this would be Moreau's career high by far) and 17 yards a game with Carr. Moreau 3 highest yardage games on 2024 all came under Rattler. In 2023 when Carr played all year, Moreau had only 193 yards, down over 50% from his 2022 numbers. Oh but yes, Derek Carr was also Moreau's QB in 2022 with the Raiders. But guess when Moreau had his season high yardardage in 2022? Yep, in one of the two games Derek Carr was benched. Moreau totalled 65 yards in the two games Carr missed in 2022, which on a 17 games pace would again be a career high.

Essentially, Johnson and Moreau are both 50-100% better with anyone but Derek Carr since 2022, and their 2024 stats were both substantially bolstered by Carr missing 7 games. Giving either a new contract / extension while planning on Carr to start would be a mistake, because we won't get what we are paying for as long as Carr is under center.

The last time that Derek Carr was able to bring the most out of a TE was 2020 with Darren Waller, but once Waller lost a step in 2021 Carr could not get production out of him. Even Waller averaged more yards per game in the two 2022 games Carr was benched vs those Carr played (54yds/game vs 40 yds/game) and as hobbled New York Giant in 2023 (46 yards/game)

Ever since the chapter closed on elite beast 2019-2020 Darren Waller, Derek Carr has gotten less out of every TE than every other QB including Jared Stidham, Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, and Spencer Rattler. Only Tommy Devito got less with 36yds/game from from Waller in 2023. For all we know, prime Darren Waller would have rewrote the record books if he had a half way decent QB in 2019-2020.

This also brings a lot of question to the idea of drafting a TE in the first round, which I am against anyway. Every data point from the past 4 seasons says Carr gets less out of the same TE's than other QBs. He also seems to get them hurt a lot, as TE is most subject to hospital balls. Carr likes to gamble on deep balls, check down to Kamara, and make heroic QB runs where he gets injured. The Saints may be better off spending on cheap blocking TEs, or taking a chance on multiple mid round picks at TE hoping for rare chemistry.

rezburna

Let them both walk. Draft a TE in the later rounds to compete with Holker.

neugey

I'd like to see Holker get more of a look too and keep our fingers crossed.

K Major

The Raiders are currently shopping Michael Myers. At least make a call …

Juwan & Foster don’t move the needle at TE.

Oh, and there is always the upcoming draft.

SmashMouth

March 17th will be the tell tale date on Carr. It'll be a domino effect thereafter. I'm with Rez on this one. Time for fresh legs and fresh brains.

I could see Holker and LSU's Taylor at TE for the Saints. Foster might come back cheap for depth. Juwan won't. Don't forget we have Taysom at TE.