Saints are likely over the 2026 Salary Cap

BakoSaint · 03-12-2025, 08:34 PM

Carr lovers have been talking about how if we did need to move on from Carr, 2026 will likely be year, because we are $100 million or whatever under the salary cap. Well, so much for that.

When you follow this link and click over to 2026 it currently shows the Saints $24 million under the salary cap:

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-orleans-saints

But it does not reflect:

$17m/yr Chase Young
$10.5m/yr Justin Reid

While these numbers are averages, most contracts are structured so the first year is way below average and later years are above average, so when all the numbers are released and entered we will probably be at least $5 million over the 2026 before signing any more free agents or extensions or the results of any post-June-1 cuts that accelerate dead money to 2026.

So the Saints are likely already over the 2026 salary cap. And by the end of the 2025 season, they could be $50-100 million over with Loomis loomising himself some more eyeliner wearing boy toys.

Of course, the Saints will find a way to get under the cap in 2026. Restructures are basic middle school math and nothing complicated. But the need to get under the cap will be an excuse to extend Derek Carr again and backload more money, as well as retaining many mediocre vets like Shepherd, Saunders, Godchaux, Carr, Johnson, etc. 9-8 is the dream and Mickey Loomis is living for it.

SmashMouth · 03-13-2025, 07:01 AM

Yup... proverbial can kicked down the road.

It was revealed yesterday that KM took the gig knowing Carr was to remain QB1. So if we examine how they handled the latter years of Brees contract, they may handle Carr's latter contract years similarly. This likely means we have him for a couple of more years now. So 2026 or 2027 now becomes 2028. Will we copy what GB did with their QB situation? Meaning will the Bayou Rattler take over then? The challenge then will be that he won't be on a rookie contract anymore. Saints needs to find a QB to take over then that will be on a rookie contract for a few years to get back to a positive cap situation.

AsylumGuido · 03-13-2025, 08:40 AM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

Carr lovers have been talking about how if we did need to move on from Carr, 2026 will likely be year, because we are $100 million or whatever under the salary cap. Well, so much for that.

When you follow this link and click over to 2026 it currently shows the Saints $24 million under the salary cap:

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-orleans-saints

But it does not reflect:

$17m/yr Chase Young
$10.5m/yr Justin Reid

While these numbers are averages, most contracts are structured so the first year is way below average and later years are above average, so when all the numbers are released and entered we will probably be at least $5 million over the 2026 before signing any more free agents or extensions or the results of any post-June-1 cuts that accelerate dead money to 2026.

So the Saints are likely already over the 2026 salary cap. And by the end of the 2025 season, they could be $50-100 million over with Loomis loomising himself some more eyeliner wearing boy toys.

Of course, the Saints will find a way to get under the cap in 2026. Restructures are basic middle school math and nothing complicated. But the need to get under the cap will be an excuse to extend Derek Carr again and backload more money, as well as retaining many mediocre vets like Shepherd, Saunders, Godchaux, Carr, Johnson, etc. 9-8 is the dream and Mickey Loomis is living for it.

When it comes down to Carr as our QB it isn't a case of black and white. There are many shades of grey. It isn't simply haters and lovers. Oh, I know there are the outright haters. But, I for one definitely do not hate Carr as our QB. Nor do I necessarily love him in the position. What I do like is him there over any other option at this point. I believe he gives us the best chance of winning games now. I believe that Kellen Moore sees it the same way. I'm all for drafting a QB every year until we come across one that can be the real thing. Or at least an average NFL starter. Those are very rare and as it is there aren't 32 in the league today. Give me that 10-7 or 9-8 and the playoffs out of the NFC South until that time. You have to at least get in to win.

Sinner · 03-13-2025, 11:31 AM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

When it comes down to Carr as our QB it isn't a case of black and white. There are many shades of grey. It isn't simply haters and lovers. Oh, I know there are the outright haters. But, I for one definitely do not hate Carr as our QB. Nor do I necessarily love him in the position. What I do like is him there over any other option at this point. I believe he gives us the best chance of winning games now. I believe that Kellen Moore sees it the same way. I'm all for drafting a QB every year until we come across one that can be the real thing. Or at least an average NFL starter. Those are very rare and as it is there aren't 32 in the league today. Give me that 10-7 or 9-8 and the playoffs out of the NFC South until that time. You have to at least get in to win.

When people talk about kicking the proverbial can down the road, it has become painfully clear that YOU DAT CAN, bro.

BakoSaint · 03-21-2025, 10:03 AM

Its official. If you click over to 2026 at this page, we are now $6.4m over the 2026 cap. And Justin Reid still has not been reflected. Add his contract and we are likely about $20m over. And thats before Loomis's next brilliant move to trade for someone like CMC, Aiyuk, Ramsey, etc.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-orleans-saints

BakoSaint · 03-21-2025, 10:07 AM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

When it comes down to Carr as our QB it isn't a case of black and white. There are many shades of grey. It isn't simply haters and lovers. Oh, I know there are the outright haters. But, I for one definitely do not hate Carr as our QB. Nor do I necessarily love him in the position. What I do like is him there over any other option at this point. I believe he gives us the best chance of winning games now. I believe that Kellen Moore sees it the same way. I'm all for drafting a QB every year until we come across one that can be the real thing. Or at least an average NFL starter. Those are very rare and as it is there aren't 32 in the league today. Give me that 10-7 or 9-8 and the playoffs out of the NFC South until that time. You have to at least get in to win.

Where I disagree is I want the best chance of winning it all, not of winning 9 games, and I think the two are different. I agree to drafting a QB every year until we come across one that can be the real thing. I just think that instead of paying $40-50 million a year for a mediocre safety net in Derek Carr, it would be smarter to hoard salary cap resources at a rate of $40-50 million a year, and then when we find the real thing, we are going into the new league year already being $50 million under the salary cap without having to restructure a single deal, and we can sign top free agents for the next several years and cut dead weight at will, to build a powerhouse around that QB. Ditching the safety net could result in more losses short term, but they actually award higher draft picks to teams with more losses, so worst case scenario maybe we are in a position to draft that dark horse by the name of Manning instead of having to bet on a Milroe or Ewers every time.

papz · 03-21-2025, 11:02 AM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

When it comes down to Carr as our QB it isn't a case of black and white. There are many shades of grey. It isn't simply haters and lovers. Oh, I know there are the outright haters. But, I for one definitely do not hate Carr as our QB. Nor do I necessarily love him in the position. What I do like is him there over any other option at this point. I believe he gives us the best chance of winning games now. I believe that Kellen Moore sees it the same way. I'm all for drafting a QB every year until we come across one that can be the real thing. Or at least an average NFL starter. Those are very rare and as it is there aren't 32 in the league today. Give me that 10-7 or 9-8 and the playoffs out of the NFC South until that time. You have to at least get in to win.

Who are you and what have you done with AsylumGuido?

This type of objectivity is refreshing.

When we all accept the fact that we are not rebuilding, nor will we be, this is pretty much what we should be hoping for.

saintsfan1976 · 03-22-2025, 08:57 AM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

When it comes down to Carr as our QB it isn't a case of black and white. There are many shades of grey. It isn't simply haters and lovers. Oh, I know there are the outright haters. But, I for one definitely do not hate Carr as our QB. Nor do I necessarily love him in the position. What I do like is him there over any other option at this point. I believe he gives us the best chance of winning games now. I believe that Kellen Moore sees it the same way. I'm all for drafting a QB every year until we come across one that can be the real thing. Or at least an average NFL starter. Those are very rare and as it is there aren't 32 in the league today. Give me that 10-7 or 9-8 and the playoffs out of the NFC South until that time. You have to at least get in to win.

Agree.

iceshack149 · 03-30-2025, 10:47 AM

Admittedly, my eyes glaze over any time cap discussions come up because it's all a magic trick. The Saints have no cap space yet have $12 million available.
https://atozsports.com/nfl/new-orlea...ning-camp-nfl/
Why can't the Saints sign Asante Samuel Junior?

BakoSaint · 03-30-2025, 03:19 PM

Originally Posted by iceshack149

Admittedly, my eyes glaze over any time cap discussions come up because it's all a magic trick. The Saints have no cap space yet have $12 million available.
https://atozsports.com/nfl/new-orlea...ning-camp-nfl/
Why can't the Saints sign Asante Samuel Junior?

The Saints absolutely could sign Asante Samuel Junior. The salary cap in no way limits how many players a team can add in a current year. The Saints could more or less sign every top free agent in the league in any given offseason even if they started the offseason $100 million over the cap. If they went crazy enough it could prevent cap compliance in a future year but never in the present year.

The salary cap is a limit on how many players a team can SUBTRACT in the offseason. There is no Loomis magic for subtracting players, SUBTRACTION is Loomis kryptonite. If you think Samuel Jr gets Derek Carr and the Saints a ring in 2025, which I certainly don't, then yeah add him. But just realize that when Samuel is 33 years old and coming off a torn ACL, hasn't made the pro bowl in 4 years, and is set to earn $50 million salary plus $35 million prorated bonuses with $115 million dead cap, your going to have to pencil him in as a starter at 33yo to justify the restructure that cuts his 2033 cap hit from $85 million to $45 million but sets up a $140 million dead cap hit to cut in 2034.

At the Saints current level they can only afford one major cut per offseason or they will be broke and have to go full rebuild. If they go more all-in, they won't be able to afford any cuts. Players will be free to tell Gayle Benson to her face that the pope is the antichrist and all priests are molesters, then ignore the coaches call and run whatever plays they want, and they will be restructured with a cash advance, kept on the team, and eventually encouraged to sign extensions at an above market offer. The thing you can't do if you manage the cap like Loomis is what Sean Payton did when he came to New Orleans, reset the roster with 26 new players, change out the old guard, change the culture.

The reason that the salary cap is a limit on subtraction not addition is that you can always backload new deals and restructure old deals to continuously backload them. The contracts can be restructured over and over to prevent the full bill from ever coming due, until the player is cut, traded, or retires, thats when the full bill comes due. On a 1 year basis every deal looks like a better deal to restructure than cut even if their contribution is zero and it always looks like there will be a better time to move on from that player in a couple years, when the team has more room under the cap and the dead cap hit to cut that player is less, but in between then and now the Saints always restructure that players contract every year, and then when that year actually comes around the Saints have less room under the salary cap and the dead cap hit to cut that player is higher.

03-12-2025, 08:34 PM	#1
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,328	Saints are likely over the 2026 Salary Cap Carr lovers have been talking about how if we did need to move on from Carr, 2026 will likely be year, because we are $100 million or whatever under the salary cap. Well, so much for that. When you follow this link and click over to 2026 it currently shows the Saints $24 million under the salary cap: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-orleans-saints But it does not reflect: $17m/yr Chase Young $10.5m/yr Justin Reid While these numbers are averages, most contracts are structured so the first year is way below average and later years are above average, so when all the numbers are released and entered we will probably be at least $5 million over the 2026 before signing any more free agents or extensions or the results of any post-June-1 cuts that accelerate dead money to 2026. So the Saints are likely already over the 2026 salary cap. And by the end of the 2025 season, they could be $50-100 million over with Loomis loomising himself some more eyeliner wearing boy toys. Of course, the Saints will find a way to get under the cap in 2026. Restructures are basic middle school math and nothing complicated. But the need to get under the cap will be an excuse to extend Derek Carr again and backload more money, as well as retaining many mediocre vets like Shepherd, Saunders, Godchaux, Carr, Johnson, etc. 9-8 is the dream and Mickey Loomis is living for it.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,328

03-13-2025, 07:01 AM	#2
SmashMouth I donated, did you? Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Mandeville, LA Posts: 38,512 Blog Entries: 29	Re: Saints are likely over the 2026 Salary Cap Yup... proverbial can kicked down the road. It was revealed yesterday that KM took the gig knowing Carr was to remain QB1. So if we examine how they handled the latter years of Brees contract, they may handle Carr's latter contract years similarly. This likely means we have him for a couple of more years now. So 2026 or 2027 now becomes 2028. Will we copy what GB did with their QB situation? Meaning will the Bayou Rattler take over then? The challenge then will be that he won't be on a rookie contract anymore. Saints needs to find a QB to take over then that will be on a rookie contract for a few years to get back to a positive cap situation.

03-13-2025, 08:40 AM	#3
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,543	Re: Saints are likely over the 2026 Salary Cap Originally Posted by BakoSaint Carr lovers have been talking about how if we did need to move on from Carr, 2026 will likely be year, because we are $100 million or whatever under the salary cap. Well, so much for that. When you follow this link and click over to 2026 it currently shows the Saints $24 million under the salary cap: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-orleans-saints But it does not reflect: $17m/yr Chase Young $10.5m/yr Justin Reid While these numbers are averages, most contracts are structured so the first year is way below average and later years are above average, so when all the numbers are released and entered we will probably be at least $5 million over the 2026 before signing any more free agents or extensions or the results of any post-June-1 cuts that accelerate dead money to 2026. So the Saints are likely already over the 2026 salary cap. And by the end of the 2025 season, they could be $50-100 million over with Loomis loomising himself some more eyeliner wearing boy toys. Of course, the Saints will find a way to get under the cap in 2026. Restructures are basic middle school math and nothing complicated. But the need to get under the cap will be an excuse to extend Derek Carr again and backload more money, as well as retaining many mediocre vets like Shepherd, Saunders, Godchaux, Carr, Johnson, etc. 9-8 is the dream and Mickey Loomis is living for it. When it comes down to Carr as our QB it isn't a case of black and white. There are many shades of grey. It isn't simply haters and lovers. Oh, I know there are the outright haters. But, I for one definitely do not hate Carr as our QB. Nor do I necessarily love him in the position. What I do like is him there over any other option at this point. I believe he gives us the best chance of winning games now. I believe that Kellen Moore sees it the same way. I'm all for drafting a QB every year until we come across one that can be the real thing. Or at least an average NFL starter. Those are very rare and as it is there aren't 32 in the league today. Give me that 10-7 or 9-8 and the playoffs out of the NFC South until that time. You have to at least get in to win. Danno, papz, Crusader and 2 others like this.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

03-13-2025, 11:31 AM	#4
Sinner 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 4,059	Re: Saints are likely over the 2026 Salary Cap Originally Posted by AsylumGuido When it comes down to Carr as our QB it isn't a case of black and white. There are many shades of grey. It isn't simply haters and lovers. Oh, I know there are the outright haters. But, I for one definitely do not hate Carr as our QB. Nor do I necessarily love him in the position. What I do like is him there over any other option at this point. I believe he gives us the best chance of winning games now. I believe that Kellen Moore sees it the same way. I'm all for drafting a QB every year until we come across one that can be the real thing. Or at least an average NFL starter. Those are very rare and as it is there aren't 32 in the league today. Give me that 10-7 or 9-8 and the playoffs out of the NFC South until that time. You have to at least get in to win. When people talk about kicking the proverbial can down the road, it has become painfully clear that YOU DAT CAN, bro.
Sinner 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 4,059

03-21-2025, 10:03 AM	#5
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,328	Re: Saints are likely over the 2026 Salary Cap Its official. If you click over to 2026 at this page, we are now $6.4m over the 2026 cap. And Justin Reid still has not been reflected. Add his contract and we are likely about $20m over. And thats before Loomis's next brilliant move to trade for someone like CMC, Aiyuk, Ramsey, etc. https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-orleans-saints
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,328

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03-21-2025, 10:07 AM	#6
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,328	Re: Saints are likely over the 2026 Salary Cap Originally Posted by AsylumGuido When it comes down to Carr as our QB it isn't a case of black and white. There are many shades of grey. It isn't simply haters and lovers. Oh, I know there are the outright haters. But, I for one definitely do not hate Carr as our QB. Nor do I necessarily love him in the position. What I do like is him there over any other option at this point. I believe he gives us the best chance of winning games now. I believe that Kellen Moore sees it the same way. I'm all for drafting a QB every year until we come across one that can be the real thing. Or at least an average NFL starter. Those are very rare and as it is there aren't 32 in the league today. Give me that 10-7 or 9-8 and the playoffs out of the NFC South until that time. You have to at least get in to win. Where I disagree is I want the best chance of winning it all, not of winning 9 games, and I think the two are different. I agree to drafting a QB every year until we come across one that can be the real thing. I just think that instead of paying $40-50 million a year for a mediocre safety net in Derek Carr, it would be smarter to hoard salary cap resources at a rate of $40-50 million a year, and then when we find the real thing, we are going into the new league year already being $50 million under the salary cap without having to restructure a single deal, and we can sign top free agents for the next several years and cut dead weight at will, to build a powerhouse around that QB. Ditching the safety net could result in more losses short term, but they actually award higher draft picks to teams with more losses, so worst case scenario maybe we are in a position to draft that dark horse by the name of Manning instead of having to bet on a Milroe or Ewers every time.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,328

03-21-2025, 11:02 AM	#7
papz Problem? Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: New Orleans Posts: 11,772	Re: Saints are likely over the 2026 Salary Cap Originally Posted by AsylumGuido When it comes down to Carr as our QB it isn't a case of black and white. There are many shades of grey. It isn't simply haters and lovers. Oh, I know there are the outright haters. But, I for one definitely do not hate Carr as our QB. Nor do I necessarily love him in the position. What I do like is him there over any other option at this point. I believe he gives us the best chance of winning games now. I believe that Kellen Moore sees it the same way. I'm all for drafting a QB every year until we come across one that can be the real thing. Or at least an average NFL starter. Those are very rare and as it is there aren't 32 in the league today. Give me that 10-7 or 9-8 and the playoffs out of the NFC South until that time. You have to at least get in to win. Who are you and what have you done with AsylumGuido? This type of objectivity is refreshing. When we all accept the fact that we are not rebuilding, nor will we be, this is pretty much what we should be hoping for. neugey, Crusader and saintsfan1976 like this.

03-22-2025, 08:57 AM	#8
saintsfan1976 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Atlanta Posts: 10,991 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Saints are likely over the 2026 Salary Cap Originally Posted by AsylumGuido When it comes down to Carr as our QB it isn't a case of black and white. There are many shades of grey. It isn't simply haters and lovers. Oh, I know there are the outright haters. But, I for one definitely do not hate Carr as our QB. Nor do I necessarily love him in the position. What I do like is him there over any other option at this point. I believe he gives us the best chance of winning games now. I believe that Kellen Moore sees it the same way. I'm all for drafting a QB every year until we come across one that can be the real thing. Or at least an average NFL starter. Those are very rare and as it is there aren't 32 in the league today. Give me that 10-7 or 9-8 and the playoffs out of the NFC South until that time. You have to at least get in to win. Agree.

03-30-2025, 10:47 AM	#9
iceshack149 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Fairbanks, AK Posts: 4,355 Blog Entries: 1	Re: Saints are likely over the 2026 Salary Cap Admittedly, my eyes glaze over any time cap discussions come up because it's all a magic trick. The Saints have no cap space yet have $12 million available. https://atozsports.com/nfl/new-orlea...ning-camp-nfl/ Why can't the Saints sign Asante Samuel Junior?

03-30-2025, 03:19 PM	#10
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,328	Re: Saints are likely over the 2026 Salary Cap Originally Posted by iceshack149 Admittedly, my eyes glaze over any time cap discussions come up because it's all a magic trick. The Saints have no cap space yet have $12 million available. https://atozsports.com/nfl/new-orlea...ning-camp-nfl/ Why can't the Saints sign Asante Samuel Junior? The Saints absolutely could sign Asante Samuel Junior. The salary cap in no way limits how many players a team can add in a current year. The Saints could more or less sign every top free agent in the league in any given offseason even if they started the offseason $100 million over the cap. If they went crazy enough it could prevent cap compliance in a future year but never in the present year. The salary cap is a limit on how many players a team can SUBTRACT in the offseason. There is no Loomis magic for subtracting players, SUBTRACTION is Loomis kryptonite. If you think Samuel Jr gets Derek Carr and the Saints a ring in 2025, which I certainly don't, then yeah add him. But just realize that when Samuel is 33 years old and coming off a torn ACL, hasn't made the pro bowl in 4 years, and is set to earn $50 million salary plus $35 million prorated bonuses with $115 million dead cap, your going to have to pencil him in as a starter at 33yo to justify the restructure that cuts his 2033 cap hit from $85 million to $45 million but sets up a $140 million dead cap hit to cut in 2034. At the Saints current level they can only afford one major cut per offseason or they will be broke and have to go full rebuild. If they go more all-in, they won't be able to afford any cuts. Players will be free to tell Gayle Benson to her face that the pope is the antichrist and all priests are molesters, then ignore the coaches call and run whatever plays they want, and they will be restructured with a cash advance, kept on the team, and eventually encouraged to sign extensions at an above market offer. The thing you can't do if you manage the cap like Loomis is what Sean Payton did when he came to New Orleans, reset the roster with 26 new players, change out the old guard, change the culture. The reason that the salary cap is a limit on subtraction not addition is that you can always backload new deals and restructure old deals to continuously backload them. The contracts can be restructured over and over to prevent the full bill from ever coming due, until the player is cut, traded, or retires, thats when the full bill comes due. On a 1 year basis every deal looks like a better deal to restructure than cut even if their contribution is zero and it always looks like there will be a better time to move on from that player in a couple years, when the team has more room under the cap and the dead cap hit to cut that player is less, but in between then and now the Saints always restructure that players contract every year, and then when that year actually comes around the Saints have less room under the salary cap and the dead cap hit to cut that player is higher. iceshack149 likes this.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,328	Last edited by BakoSaint; 03-30-2025 at 03:32 PM..