BakoSaint

I wrote an article for my site and how the Saints actually hold all cards on Derek Carr's contract now that they gave him every guarantee and no more are left. In theory, the Saints could retain Carr on the roster until August 2026 with no further guarantees triggering and cut him then when no starting jobs are available. If we need Carr to consider a trade or paycut, that leverage could be meaningful now, because if he just 'honors his contract' until then we can do the same, and his contract pays him no significant new money or guarantees for the next 17 months.

https://www.firemickeyloomis.com/the...erek-carr-a-po

After Derek Carr's full money restructure, everyone who's anyone is suggesting the Saints could move on by designating Derek Carr a post-June-1 cut in 2026. Not only is this not the Saints best option, but it would provide absolutely no benefit to the team. The best option for the Saints in the 2026 offseason would be threatening to actually cut Derek Carr after June 1, 2026.

The misunderstanding stems from a key difference in the Saints upcoming contract situation with Derek Carr in the 2026 offseason as opposed to the 2024 and 2025 offseasons. In the 2024 and 2025 offseasons Derek Carr's contract contained language that would trigger guarantees if he was still on the roster on a certain date in March of those offseasons. During the 2024 offseason, Derek Carr's 2024 base salary was already guaranteed, but there was a trigger to guarantee his 2025 roster bonus if he was not cut early. During the 2025 offseason, Derek Carr's 2025 roster bonus was thus already guaranteed, but his 2025 base salary was not yet guaranteed until that trigger date, though the choice to restructure his contract effectively guaranteed it early. During the 2026 offseason, there are no triggers in Derek Carr's contract. He has a $50 million base salary for 2026, but it is not guaranteed, and contains no trigger to guarantee it until Week 1 of 2026. A post-June-1 cut designation does not result in any cap savings prior to June 1, but allows a player to move on to a new team immediately. As such, a post-June-1 cut designation only has two possible benefits:

Although for cap purposes a player cut with a post-June-1 designation is treated as if they are still on the roster until June 1, for trigger purposes they are not. Also, if the immediate cap cost of a regular cut is HIGHER than keeping that player on the roster, a post-June-1 cut designation avoids that higher cost until June 1, then after June 1 it spreads that cost over the current cap year and the next cap year. The reason many proposed that the Saints could have used a post-June-1 designation on Derek Carr during the 2024 or 2025 offseason is that they could avoid further guarantees triggering, while avoiding an immediate dead cap hit in the current year that would exceed the cost of even leaving the current contract alone without a restructure and leave no money for even signing draft picks in June. A post-June-1 cut designation in March before guarantees triggered was the most realistic way to avoid those guarantees and not put good money after bad in in the long term multi-year cap hits associated with the failed Derek Carr experiment.

The second reason to utilize a post-June-1 cut designation is purely for goodwill to a player. In some cases the immediate dead cap hit to cut a player exceeds their current year cap cost and the team cannot afford to cut the player prior to June 1, but no triggers are in play during the offseason to rush a cut. Once it is after June 1 most of the dead cap hit to cut that player will hit the following years cap, and that players regular season base salary is not guaranteed, so the team can then cut the player on June 2 and realize a big savings both to the current years salary cap to sign draft picks, and long term by avoiding ever paying out that players base salary. They can cut the player any time after June 1 and before week 1, and all they pay extra is like $3,000 a week stipend during training camp and preseason. This can be a great option for the team but very bad for the player, as free agents looking for a new team in June usually garner only about half the salary on the open market because teams have already spent their free agent budgets. So the second reason to utilize a post-June-1 cut designation is in this situation, where the team can achieve the same result of cap-neutrality until June 1 and major cap benefit after June 1, without harming the players prospects in free agency, and retaining good will from a player who always did right by the team but just didn't fit in their plans going forward.

There is no reason to use a post-June-1 cut designation on Derek Carr in the 2026 offseason because neither of these situations apply. Derek Carr, in refusing to consider a pay cut, using his injury as leverage, and abandoning New Orleans during the Super Bowl did not always do right by the team and has earned no good will. He has said he would honor his contract and has made business decisions, so the Saints should do the same. He has no triggers to guarantee any money during the 2026 offseason if the Saints delay their decision to cut him until sometime during June-August.

The Saints several options for the 2026 offseason that could make sense with Derek Carr:

Make Derek Carr a regular traditional pre-June-1 cut. This would result in a $59.7 million dead cap hit. However, Carr's cap charge for 2026 is set to be $69.2 million if he remains on the team in 2026 under his current contract so this would actually be an immediate cap savings of $9.5 million in the current cap year, while reducing the Saints cap hits by $40.5 million over future years for the total of $50 million saved due to avoiding Carr's $50 million base salary. Carr could sign with another team immediately. And you don't need to use a Post-June-1 tag which you only get 2 of per offseason. This sounds like a nice option but really it may provide very little benefit because the immediate savings is only $9.5 million and you need about that to sign draft picks in June, so unless you have some other cap savings coming in June, there is really no benefit to having that money in your pocket now that you can't spend now. Yes, it helps you get under the cap by the March deadline, but unless you have more cap savings coming before June, it doesn't matter if you are $1 under the cap in March and $10 million under in June, or $10 million under from March to June, because either way you need to sign those draft picks around June, and there is no real benefit to being able to sign them in May. Then again, maybe you do have more savings coming in June if you used the Post-June-1 cut designation on other players, such as Cam Jordan, Taysom Hill, or a recent signing that turns out to be a bust.

Wait until after June 1 to cut Carr. This does not require using one of 2 tags/designations that are a scarce quantity. There is no savings until June-1 and big savings after June 1, just like with the tag. It is no different for the Saints than using the tag. It is only very costly to Derek Carr if he hopes to get a big contract elsewhere, as June free agents typically sign at a 50% discount. The Saints would save $50 million off their cap on June 2 which they could use to sign draft picks, extend players, sign off cycle free agents, make trades for players made redundant for other teams after the draft, etc. The Saints could even wait until July or August to cut Carr, though playing him in preseason or camp would not make sense with the risk of injury. They could keep him around in case a desperate team has an injury and seeks a trade, or in case they draft a QB who gets hurt. The Saints hold all the costs, Carr makes nothing during the offseason until training camp and then makes $3,000 a week during training camp and preseason. This is the contract he signed and we would be honoring it.

Ask Carr to take a substantial pay cut, for example from $50 million to $20 million, and waive his no trade clause. Carr refused to consider a pay cut in this 2025 offseason but thats because he held all the cards. Either the Saints cut him and barely get under the cap with no free agent budget for their new coach or wait for mid-March and his salary guaranteed with no cut or they restructure him and essentially guaranteed that full salary even earlier. But in the 2026 offseason there is no such trigger to guarantee Carr's salary so the Saints hold all the cards, as long as they can get under the cap without needing to restructure Carr like they felt they needed to in 2025. The Saints can propose that Carr reduce his base salary from $50 million without guarantee to $20 million with guarantee and some incentives and waive his no trade clause, where the Saints would realize an immediate cap savings of $30 million and could perhaps trade Carr, and if Carr refuses the Saints can inform him that he is free to seek a trade with his current $50 million salary but if he cannot find a team willing to trade for him at his current salary, the Saints will red shirt him in training camp and preseason and cut him in July or August after all trade possibilities have been exhausted, at which point Carr would have a very hard time finding a starting gig and would likely make less than $20 million. This strategy could make Derek Carr tradeable if a team has an injury or need, the reduced salary for $20 million could be restructured for further cap savings and tradability, and this could also allow Carr to 'play out his contract' as a caretaker QB for a rookie who is not quite ready, and potentially garner the Saints a comp pick if Carr gets a decent contract elsewhere in 2027.

Ask Carr to reduce his base salary to $1 million in return for the ability to opt out of his contract on June 2. This might not be ideal for Carr, but June 2 is better than August for continuing his career. This would give the Saints $49 million of immediate cap relief. It would also signal to teams that Carr would definitely be available on June 2 since he would definitely opt out of playing for $1 million, so perhaps a needy team would save their free agent budget and pay him closer to market. This would also save the Saints from having to use one of their post-June-1 designation tags and provide the best of both worlds in immediate cap relief and deferring dead money to 2026.

Ask Carr to waive his no trade clause during the 2025 offseason or 2025 season prior to the trade deadline and trade him then. Carr would have high trade value because in the restructure the Saints pre-paid all but $1 million of his salary. If a QB falls to the Saints in the draft, this could make sense. If Carr declines, the Saints could inform him that has from now until August 2026 to find a trade partner and if he doesn't, he will be cut in August 2026. Its actually the same long term cost, and less short term cost, for the Saints to cut or trade Carr in August 2026 than now, because he negotiated a contract with no guarantee triggers in this time to protect him, so if Carr wants to refuse a legitimate trade offer that would land him with a new team then great, he can find a new team in August 2026 when there are no starting gigs open and be can become a backup or compete with other journeymen.

Ask Derek Carr to consider retiring if he has an injury or poor year. He would finish with a longer career than his brother, and playing for only two teams might avoid the journeyman tag. This would have the same effect as a pre-June-1 cut except it would allow the Saints to retain Carr's rights if he decides to come out of retirement and wants to be traded. This could also be a way for Carr to 'save face' if he realizes that a good starting gig may not be available to him. I am not fully sure of the cap ramifications if Carr came out of retirement after his prorate bonuses have been been accelerated to the current year, as this might double the cap hit and force the Saints to cut him and lose his rights. If Carr would reduce his salary and retire post-June-1 2026 this could also help repair his reputation with fans if he does decide to hang up his cleats, and would not cost him any actual money if he was going to retire anyway.

All these options could make sense. One option makes no sense. The option everyone seems to be suggesting of using a post-June-1 designation to cut Carr in March 2026. That move would provide no immediate cap benefit at that time, avoid no triggers or guarantees, provide no more post-June-1 benefit that waiting until its actually post-June-1, and waste a scarce resource of post-June-1 designation slots. The only one who would benefit from the Saints designating Carr a post-June-1 cut in March, 2026 would be to Derek Carr, whose free agent value would be maximized by hitting the market in March while the Saints get no benefit until June. Derek Carr always put himself first, and there is no reason for the Saints to make more bad business decisions to benefit Carr who would never do the same for them.

But there are two even worse decisions the Saints could make:

Restructure Derek Carr's full $50 million contract in the 2026 offseason. This could produce an immediate $40 million cap savings in 2026 but would leave the Saints with a staggering $80.5 million dead cap hit in 2027.

Extend Derek Carr at full money as part of a restructure. For example Carr, refusing to take a pay cut and feeling the leverage was back in his corner with the Saints afraid to move on, could secure $50 million salaries in 2027 and 2028 to match 2026. The Saints could save $40 million 2026, restructure Carr again in 2027 and pay him $40 million of mostly prorated money from past restructures, restructure again in 2028 and pay $43.5 million cap charge, then face a staggering $98 million cap dead cap hit in 2029, $40 million from the 2028 restructure, $30 million from the 2027 restructure, $20 million from the 2026 restructure, and $8 million from the 2025 restructure, as restructures essentially divide current salary evenly over the next 5 years with the remaining balance due at void, so 80% of $50 million 2028 salary + 60% of $50 million 2027 salary + 40% of $50 million 2026 salary + 20% of 40 million 2025 salary.

If the Saints have a new GM in 2026, hopefully they will not make these two mistakes. The Saints choosing to restructure Carr and guarantee his bloated 2025 salary was a mistake, but once that check was cashed the cards are in the Saints hands for any future decisions. If Derek Carr refuses to take a pay cut, refuses to consider trades, and puts only Derek Carr first, the Saints can put the Saints first too. The Saints hold all the power to keep Derek Carr on the roster through August without guaranteeing him anything but a $3,000 a week training camp and preseason stipend, and then to cut him loose at the last second, announcing that Jake Haener beat him out for a roster spot after he red-shirted camp and preseason. That leverage means power. Finally, Derek Carr can be the one making the hard decisions in the offseason.