BakoSaint

Lets predict the Saints record. Apologies if this thread exists, the search function is not working well for me and claims there is only one post in forum history with the word predict in the title.

I will say 4-13. I get that we play 12 teams that had losing records who we could beat, but when I look at those 12 teams I only see one (Jets) with as meager and unproven of a QB situation as us. So I think we still lose to most of those teams because even the likes of Cam Ward, Russell Wilson, Bryce Young, Michael Penix, Sam Darnold, etc give our opponents an edge at QB for now.

I know that we signed free agents and selected draft picks at some areas of need and have players returning from injury, but that is literally every team every offseason. I don't know that we did it better. Our front offices track record says we wouldn't have.

I am glad Carr is gone, and its good for the team long term because it makes no sense to pay $40 million to get to 7-8 wins, but as we try to see what sticks for a replacement before building up the high draft pick or salary cap resources for a high end replacement, our low end replacements are less likely to get us to even 7-8 wins.

I know we signed a young OC coming off a successful season as our new HC but almost every losing team does that, and until we see results on the field we have no idea if he is the next McVay or Hackett. He could be great but last year most agreed Klint Kubiak was the messiah and was guaranteed to triple our wins. I hope our new staff works out, but there are also concerns that Staley was only a good DC when he had Donald and Ramsey. The upside is these new coaches are good. The downside is we have found a new Kubiak and DA except with the Kubiak being the HC and the DA being the DC.

As usual I would say our bad luck with injuries will most likely happen again, because when you retain the aging and injured players due to lack of cap flexibility to move on, you make your own bad luck. Olave and Shaheed are injury magnets. Cooks is old. Kamara is old with a fragile backup. Hill is 35 coming off an ACL with the most physical style of play of any offensive player in the league and is virtually impossible to stay healthy with significant usage. Jordan and Davis are 36. It is good that we moved on from Adebo, Ram, and that Mathieu retired but we will still likely have more than our share of injuries until we are making moves to stay ahead of it by moving on from more of these types of players. We also spent our 2nd round pick on a QB with a ton of injury issues so we can't blame bad luck if that goes wrong. I also have concerns that McCoy is starting to break down, and a top tier franchise would have stayed ahead of it and made a long term succession plan in case. But I am hopeful that improved talent around McCoy can keep him healthier if it materializes. Some competition for Ruiz would help with that though.

I hope our oline is better but with players changed at 3 positions, none of whom have previously played that position at the pro level, we have no idea.

Our best case to approach .500 is if our QBs develop, our coach is good, and the Falcons and Panthers regress. I could see them regressing because Penix has a strong change to get injured or bust, the Falcons coach is a 3 time loser very similar to DA, people are too excited about Bryce being a #20-25 QB and he is still undersized and may regress with scouting or injury, and overall I don't think either team has a good roster or coaching. I see the Bucs as the widest favorite in any division and likely to go 6-0 in the division.

But despite my pessimism, I am still more excited about this season than any in recent years. We have our 1st round pick and it could be high enough to add a real impact player. Although we still have a few aging holdovers, we have a younger roster than in recent years with more upside to discover new stars for the future. Our cap situation, instead of the worst in the league, is not only about the 6th worst, and can improve rapidly if we don't do anything stupid. We did some stupid things this offseason like add Cooks, pay Johnson so much, and keep Hill, but overall we avoided the bigger stupid things like still paying Carr, trading high future picks, etc. The improved cap could allow us to finish getting younger and hungrier next offseason and building around whichever young players develop. For once we aren't mortgaging the future for an impossibility of winning now, we are in a position to build for the long term. I hope to see our younger team lay the building blocks for that this year.