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DRAFT ORDER WILL CREATE INTRIGUE

With the Texans at 2-14 and the Saints at 3-13, Houston and New Orleans sit 1-2 atop the draft board.

After that, a cluster of 4-12 teams were separated by the won-loss percentage of their 2005 opponents. The lower the won-loss percentage, the higher the spot.

So the Titans are at No. 3, the Jets are at No. 4, the Packers are at No. 5.

A coin flip will determine whether the 49ers or Raiders will pick sixth; the loser will select seventh.

The most obvious (and, in our view, most likely) results is that the Texans take USC tailback Reggie Bush at No. 1 and the Saints select USC quarterback Matt Leinart at No. 2.

But the presence of the Titans, whose offensive coordinator is former USC offensive coordinator Norm Chow, at No. 3 could make things interesting.

Apart from a straight trade with either the Texans or the Saints to get either Bush or Leinart, the Titans and the Texans could try to work together in an effort to allow each franchise to get one of them.

How so? Let's say that the Texans and Titans strike a secret deal to flip flop in round one, with the express understanding that the Titans would draft Leinart at No. 1. If the franchises can keep the thing under wraps until the moment that the Texans are on the clock, the Saints would then have fifteen minutes to figure out what to do.

And with Deuce McAllister on the roster, the Saints don't need Bush. But they'll need to have a plan in place with the Jets or the Packers to drop out of No. 2 if Leinart ends up being the first pick.

Such a plan entails plenty of risk for the Texans, who easily could be shut out from getting either guy. Also, the fact that the Texans and Titans are in the same division could make such an arrangement less likely.

With the Packers and Jets also in the top five, the Texans could simply hold an auction for the top pick, without worrying about whether there's a way to sneak Bush in from the three spot. The Texans would still be guaranteed a high pick -- plus whatever else they can finagle from the team that decides it's willing to give up plenty (a la Mike Ditka seven years ago for Ricky Williams) to get Bush. And if part of the price tag is a first-round pick in 2007, the Texans also would need to do some advance prognostication as to the projected value of that pick, based on the expected finish of the team that coughs up its No. 1 for next year.


We also think that the Raiders, who desperately need a quality quarterback, could try to spring to No. 2 on draft day, if Bush is indeed the No. 1 pick. Much of that depends on who the new coach of the Raiders will be, and on whether a starting quarterback can otherwise be obtained on the open market before the draft.

The only sure thing for now is that there will be plenty of rumors and speculation and innuendo over the next three months as all of the various permutations of the next destination of Bush and Leinart are laid out.

http://www.profootballtalk.com/rumormill.htm