I absolutely love Leinart... I'm a USC junkie. But, I'm tired of losing and I'd like to see us win now. Realistically with drafting a rookie qb, we're not going to become instant contenders. After the 5 6 years, however long our drought of missing the playoffs has been, I'd like to see some wins around here. If signing Brees will get us closer to the playoffs and Leinart having to wait in the wings, I'm all for it. Carson Palmer had to pay his dues while Kitna was starting, I don't see why letting Leinart learn would be such a bad idea... if we decided to go in that direction of course which once again, I'm all for.

The Miami Dolphins ended the 2005 season on a six-game winning streak and are viewed by many as being only a player or two away from becoming a strong playoff contender. One of those players most certainly will be a quarterback, and one of the quarterbacks the Dolphins reportedly have a strong interest in is Drew Brees.

Brees' 2005 standard passing statistics compare quite favorably with the Dolphins' combination of Gus Frerotte and Sage Rosenfels. Brees completed 64.6 percent of his passes and posted a rating of 89.2, averaging 7.15 yards per passing attempt. Frerotte and Rosenfels combined to complete 52.3 percent of their passes for a rating of 72.8, averaging 6.22 yards per attempt.

These numbers certainly suggest that Brees would be a considerable upgrade for Miami, but how does Brees measure up in a passing metrics analysis?

First, let's take a look at the metrics for Brees for the 2005 season (excluding his Week 17 against the Broncos when he was knocked out with an injury):

Brees
Depth Attempts Completions Yards TD INT Pen Yds/Att
Short 304 223 1742 5 8 15 5.8
Medium 98 58 916 8 3 25 9.6
Deep 65 30 795 11 3 78 13.4
Total 467 311 3453 24 14 118 7.6


These are certainly very solid metrics. It has been said that Brees has trouble throwing deep passes, but he completed 46 percent of his deep passes in 2005. This percentage wasn't an anomaly, as Brees also completed 42 percent of his deep passes in 2004. To put that percentage in perspective, Brees finished the 2004 season with the fifth highest deep-pass completion percentage in the league, and I expect him to finish at least that high in 2005.

Now let's compare these numbers against the Dolphins' tandem:

Frerotte/Rosenfels
Depth Attempts Completions Yards TD INT Pen Yds/Att
Short 329 222 1769 6 3 8 5.4
Medium 99 45 816 7 5 3 8.3
Deep 93 24 871 9 5 47 9.9
Total 521 291 3456 22 13 58 6.7


The first thing to notice about this comparison is the similarity in the short and medium pass numbers. The attempt and completion totals are nearly identical in some cases, and the other numbers are also extremely close.

Brees did toss 11 interceptions in short or medium passing attempts, while Frerotte and Rosenfels combined for eight, but the Dolphins' duo had three other interceptions on passes that were either tipped by opposing linemen at the line of scrimmage or thrown as the quarterback was being hit by a defender. Since the depth of these passes isn't clear, I put them in a separate category. If those three interceptions were included in the short and medium pass comparison, the Dolphins' total would equal that of Brees.

The deep-pass category is where the Dolphins struggled last year. Rosenfels and Frerotte attempted 28 more deep passes than Brees yet had six fewer completions. Frerotte and Rosenfels completed only 26 percent of their deep-passing attempts, a number that will place them near the bottom of the league for 2005.

The one aspect of the comparison that surprised me was the inaccurate pass metric. On each passing attempt, I track whether the quarterback threw an accurate or inaccurate pass. When an inaccurate pass leads to an incompletion , I track the number of yards the play would have gained if the receiver had caught the pass at that point (I don't factor in any potential yards after catch). This includes inaccurate passes that were dropped, and inaccurate passes that were so far off the mark the receiver had no chance to catch the pass.

The Dolphins' quarterbacks were widely criticized for being extremely inaccurate last season (especially Frerotte). When I ran a metric comparison, I found the difference wasn't as great as expected, largely because Brees had accuracy issues of his own.

Brees had 38 total inaccurate passes that cost his team yards (15 were dropped and 23 were simply off the mark). These passes would have gained a combined 422 yards.

The Dolphins' quarterback duo had 66 total inaccurate passes (28 were dropped and 38 were off the mark). These passes cost the Dolphins a total of 597 yards.

The Dolphins certainly want to upgrade their quarterback position, but the difference between Brees and the Dolphins' current stable of quarterbacks isn't as great as it might seem. Their short and medium metrics are almost identical. Brees is certainly more accurate, but the Dolphins only lost 175 more yards on inaccurate passes last year. Brees had a much higher quarterback rating, but a lot of that was due to the Dolphins' heavy reliance on the deep passing game.

The real question for the Dolphins is how much they want to pay for Brees, who is coming off major shoulder surgery and might improve their team only incrementally. If the price is too high, the Dolphins might do better investing in other areas of the team.

With the sides some $6 million apart on guaranteed money for the first year of what is essentially a one-year contract with an option for five additional years, the Chargers reiterated their concern over Brees' surgically repaired right shoulder.

Brees acknowledged yesterday the “worst-case scenario� is that he does not throw a pass this season, but he repeated his belief he will play in 2006 and said he expects to be ready in time for the opener. But he also wants more of a guarantee from the Chargers.

While the potential total value of the Chargers' contract proposal is $50 million over the six years – in line with other top quarterbacks – the only guaranteed money is $2 million, well below what stars such as Tom Brady and Carson Palmer have received in recent deals.

Brees could earn an additional $8 million the first year of the contract should he play 75 percent of the team's snaps.

Said Brees: “Tom (his agent) has no reason to lie. I told Tom from the beginning of negotiations I want to do everything we can to be in San Diego. We attempted to make that happen. And the numbers are so much more elsewhere than they are with the Chargers I'd be stupid not to take an offer elsewhere.�