Defense wins games?

thib82 · 01-18-2007, 10:32 AM

This will be the 11th time since the merger that a conference's top-ranked offense (New Orleans) is facing the top-ranked defense (Chicago). In the first 10 such matchups, the top offense has defeated the top defense seven times. In two of those games, the top offense shut out the top defense (Cowboys over Rams in 1978; 49ers over Bears in 1984).

Given this stat, why to experts still pick the team with the better Defense to win, over the team with the good offense?

http://www.superbowl.com/news/story/9937316

xan · 01-18-2007, 11:24 AM

Because of the myth that Defense wins championships. Defense is a big factor, but the object is to score.

ESPN did an article about the myths of Championship football two or so years ago, and it was determined that more often, the offense was the critical factor in determining the outcome of championship games. There are always going to be radical outliers, of course, like the Ravens, but the overwhelming evidence was that offense wins a vast majority of the games.

I'm searching for that link.

xan · 01-18-2007, 11:28 AM

Wall Street Journal, sorry. Here's the link:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1156...ys_us_pursuits

wheelman · 01-18-2007, 11:31 AM

No team has won a Super Bowl without a top ten defense. But that's going to change this year when we win it.

thib82 · 01-18-2007, 11:59 AM

Originally Posted by wheelman

No team has won a Super Bowl without a top ten defense. But that's going to change this year when we win it.

Did the Rams have a top ten defense when they won it with " The greatest show on turf"?

xan · 01-18-2007, 12:00 PM

The difference between the Saints' 11th ranked defense and the Bears' 5th ranked defense is 13 yards. The Saints played 5 of the top ten offenses this season while the Bears played 2 (Green Bay and Seattle) and the Saints were the best in the league, so they could only have played 9.

Conversely, the Saints played 3 (Balt, CAR, PIT) of the top 10 defenses while the Bears played 2 (MN, NE)

The Saints may have a bit of an advantage.

thib82 · 01-18-2007, 12:08 PM

Unfortunatley we were 0-3 against top ten defenses, and the Bears were 1-1. BUT, we did score a decent amount of points on all three of them.

Bobaganoosh · 01-18-2007, 12:29 PM

technically, we were 0-4 since we lost to Carolina twice...but, we know that game doesnt really count...but if you wanna get technical...

01-18-2007, 10:32 AM	#1
thib82 100th Post Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Carencro, LA Posts: 211	Defense wins games? This will be the 11th time since the merger that a conference's top-ranked offense (New Orleans) is facing the top-ranked defense (Chicago). In the first 10 such matchups, the top offense has defeated the top defense seven times. In two of those games, the top offense shut out the top defense (Cowboys over Rams in 1978; 49ers over Bears in 1984). Given this stat, why to experts still pick the team with the better Defense to win, over the team with the good offense? http://www.superbowl.com/news/story/9937316

01-18-2007, 11:24 AM	#2
xan Professor Crab and Site Donor 2014 Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Princeton Posts: 3,369 Blog Entries: 34	RE: Defense wins games? Because of the myth that Defense wins championships. Defense is a big factor, but the object is to score. ESPN did an article about the myths of Championship football two or so years ago, and it was determined that more often, the offense was the critical factor in determining the outcome of championship games. There are always going to be radical outliers, of course, like the Ravens, but the overwhelming evidence was that offense wins a vast majority of the games. I'm searching for that link.

01-18-2007, 11:28 AM	#3
xan Professor Crab and Site Donor 2014 Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Princeton Posts: 3,369 Blog Entries: 34	RE: Defense wins games? Wall Street Journal, sorry. Here's the link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1156...ys_us_pursuits

01-18-2007, 11:31 AM	#4
wheelman Sammich Lover Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 682	RE: Defense wins games? No team has won a Super Bowl without a top ten defense. But that's going to change this year when we win it.
wheelman Sammich Lover Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 682

01-18-2007, 11:59 AM	#5
thib82 100th Post Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Carencro, LA Posts: 211	Re: RE: Defense wins games? Originally Posted by wheelman No team has won a Super Bowl without a top ten defense. But that's going to change this year when we win it. Did the Rams have a top ten defense when they won it with " The greatest show on turf"?

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01-18-2007, 12:00 PM	#6
xan Professor Crab and Site Donor 2014 Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Princeton Posts: 3,369 Blog Entries: 34	RE: Defense wins games? The difference between the Saints' 11th ranked defense and the Bears' 5th ranked defense is 13 yards. The Saints played 5 of the top ten offenses this season while the Bears played 2 (Green Bay and Seattle) and the Saints were the best in the league, so they could only have played 9. Conversely, the Saints played 3 (Balt, CAR, PIT) of the top 10 defenses while the Bears played 2 (MN, NE) The Saints may have a bit of an advantage.

01-18-2007, 12:08 PM	#7
thib82 100th Post Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Carencro, LA Posts: 211	RE: Defense wins games? Unfortunatley we were 0-3 against top ten defenses, and the Bears were 1-1. BUT, we did score a decent amount of points on all three of them.

01-18-2007, 12:29 PM	#8
Bobaganoosh PorkchopExpress Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 608 Blog Entries: 2	technically, we were 0-4 since we lost to Carolina twice...but, we know that game doesnt really count...but if you wanna get technical...