Wanna bet?

ScottF · 08-26-2007, 03:27 PM

The line for Saints/Indy game has dropped to 5 1/2. It was 7 points a couple of weeks ago. Unlike power ratings and other preseason BS, this number actually means something.

The over/under? A whopping 51 points

Euphoria · 08-26-2007, 05:48 PM

Actually point spread is BS to if you know how they come up with it. They raise and lower it based on who and how much money is being put on the game.

If that is the Over/Under I and going to put some money of the over. I am thinking upper 70's on that score. Could be the highest scoring game of the year! in 2-3 years even.

WhoDat205 · 08-27-2007, 09:54 AM

Agreed Euph, if the o/u is 51, I'm loading the wagons on the over...metaphorically of course because gambling isn't legal.

LongTimeFan · 08-27-2007, 07:33 PM

Originally Posted by Euphoria

Actually point spread is BS to if you know how they come up with it. They raise and lower it based on who and how much money is being put on the game.

If that is the Over/Under I and going to put some money of the over. I am thinking upper 70's on that score. Could be the highest scoring game of the year! in 2-3 years even.

I agree with you Euphoria, the point spread is BS...

Did I just agree with you?

ScottF · 08-27-2007, 09:01 PM

How exactly can a point spread be BS?

There will be several million dollars bet on this game. Bookmakers set a number that will yield an equal amount of bettors on both sides, and then they make 10% of the lbets that are lost. If there is more money bet on the Saints, the line goes down to entice more bets on the Colts. It is even more exact than the stock market.

It is not some arbitrary number, it is simple supply and demand economics.

WhoDat205 · 08-28-2007, 09:13 AM

That's exactly why it's BS. It is an arbitrary number. Vegas is not concerned with being correct on the spread. They are concerning with having even money on both sides.

sarge06 · 08-28-2007, 10:16 AM

In order to have even money on both sides it has to be a somewhat accurate number.

WhoDat205 · 08-28-2007, 10:22 AM

Originally Posted by sarge06

In order to have even money on both sides it has to be a somewhat accurate number.

I would say that those betting on the game have to think it's somewhat accurate.

08-26-2007, 03:27 PM	#1
ScottF 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Atlanta Posts: 6,324	Wanna bet? The line for Saints/Indy game has dropped to 5 1/2. It was 7 points a couple of weeks ago. Unlike power ratings and other preseason BS, this number actually means something. The over/under? A whopping 51 points

08-26-2007, 05:48 PM	#2
Euphoria 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Hollywood, CA Posts: 7,601 Blog Entries: 5	Re: Wanna bet? Actually point spread is BS to if you know how they come up with it. They raise and lower it based on who and how much money is being put on the game. If that is the Over/Under I and going to put some money of the over. I am thinking upper 70's on that score. Could be the highest scoring game of the year! in 2-3 years even.

08-27-2007, 09:54 AM	#3
WhoDat205 Prediction Pain Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Birmingham, AL Posts: 1,082 Blog Entries: 2	Re: Wanna bet? Agreed Euph, if the o/u is 51, I'm loading the wagons on the over...metaphorically of course because gambling isn't legal.

08-27-2007, 07:33 PM	#4
LongTimeFan Moderator Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Louisiana Posts: 2,403	Re: Wanna bet? Originally Posted by Euphoria Actually point spread is BS to if you know how they come up with it. They raise and lower it based on who and how much money is being put on the game. If that is the Over/Under I and going to put some money of the over. I am thinking upper 70's on that score. Could be the highest scoring game of the year! in 2-3 years even. I agree with you Euphoria, the point spread is BS... Did I just agree with you?

08-27-2007, 09:01 PM	#5
ScottF 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Atlanta Posts: 6,324	Re: Wanna bet? How exactly can a point spread be BS? There will be several million dollars bet on this game. Bookmakers set a number that will yield an equal amount of bettors on both sides, and then they make 10% of the lbets that are lost. If there is more money bet on the Saints, the line goes down to entice more bets on the Colts. It is even more exact than the stock market. It is not some arbitrary number, it is simple supply and demand economics.

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08-28-2007, 09:13 AM	#6
WhoDat205 Prediction Pain Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Birmingham, AL Posts: 1,082 Blog Entries: 2	Re: Wanna bet? That's exactly why it's BS. It is an arbitrary number. Vegas is not concerned with being correct on the spread. They are concerning with having even money on both sides.

08-28-2007, 10:16 AM	#7
sarge06 100th Post Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Denham Springs, LA Posts: 212	Re: Wanna bet? In order to have even money on both sides it has to be a somewhat accurate number.

08-28-2007, 10:22 AM	#8
WhoDat205 Prediction Pain Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Birmingham, AL Posts: 1,082 Blog Entries: 2	Re: Wanna bet? Originally Posted by sarge06 In order to have even money on both sides it has to be a somewhat accurate number. I would say that those betting on the game have to think it's somewhat accurate.