pakowitz

Mel Kiper: We have some new projections and some new ratings that are coming out soon. We can get to the speculation, rumors and evaluations that's been out there this week.




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Andrew (Indianapolis): Mel, Branden Albert seems to be the hot topic around the league right now. Will he be available for the Redskins at #21 and if he is, should they pick him?

Mel Kiper: I would say two words to that - no chance. Back when we first did an original projection, maybe Pittsburgh. But those days are long gone. Washington is looking for a versatilve OL, but he will be gone. He could go as high as 5. He could go from 5-14. He has shot up because people have evaluated him as a LT in the workouts. He has LT skills and has some developing.


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Pat (atl): Mel, would Matt Ryan be viewed differently if he had better skill position players around him in college? After watching him a lot in college i thought he would have been fantastic if he had better players to throw to. I don't think people would be doubting his top of the draft status if he had played at USC or some place like that.

Mel Kiper: Yeah, he's highly rated regardless. We can defend some things about Ryan by saying that he had to force the issue because his team wasn't stellar. This was a team that was raised to this level by Matt Ryan. That's the bottom line. At one point in time, they were 8-0. After that miraculous comeback against VT. This team was considered a possible national championship contender and he was a leading candidate for Heisman and yet they didn't have good talent around him. That's where that team was on Oct. 25 when they beat Virginia Tech. Froma team standpoint, the wheels came off a bit. For Matt Ryan, in the clutch, he devlievered. I think he'll go 5th or 8th. He's not going to get past 8 and be this year's Brady Quinn.


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Colin (New orleans): What has happened to Frank Okam this past season because I remember him being considered one of the top DTs preseason? When do you think he will get drafted?

Mel Kiper: I'd say he could go anywhere from the 4th to 6th rounds. He wasn't productive enough. He wasn't physical enough. He's a big guy that can clog the interior. If I had to say the earliest, I would say 4th round.


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Ed (PA): Mel... what's with latest buzz about PGH taking Quentin Groves at #23? is that a real possibility?

Mel Kiper: Groves, had he had a senior year to equal his junior year, you'd be talking about this kid in the middle of the first round. He was banged up with multiple toe injuries. In a 3-4 defense, he would be a guy that would make a lot of sense. It wouldn't shock me if he was a late first rounder.


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Bobby (Toledo, OH): Is Kenny Philips simply benefiting from past Miami safeties? Is he even close to Ed Reed or Sean Taylor or Bennie Blades?

Mel Kiper: No. You thought he could have been in that mold based on how he played as a sophomore. But this past year, he didn't play to that level. He showed signs of being that player, but he didn't. The coaching change and instability, a number of players didn't play up to their abilities. Tavares Gooden was one of the few who played up to their abilities. I think Phillips will be a second round pick. The Broncos could be a team that looks at him. The Giants could look at him. I think he goes in the second round.


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Daniel (Glendale): What are the chances that Devin Thomas falls to the Eagles at 19 and they actually pull the trigger on him.

Mel Kiper: In the latest projection I did, I have Thomas going to Philly. I see that as a viable possibility. I thought about Tampa at 20. From Philadelphia at 19, Tampa, Washington, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Seattle, every one of those teams should consider a WR. I thought Philly might look at Jeff Otah, but I have him gone in this projection and I think they could easily look at Thomas. Had he gone back, Thomas would be a top 10 pick in the 09 draft. But he is a one-year wonder. That's why instead of being at top 10 pick right now, he's in the Philadelphia area.


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Chris (Santa Barbara): Mel you've made some great comparisons like Troy P. would be the best safety to come out of USC since Ronnie Lott, and A. Cromartie would be the best natural athelete to come out of FSU since Deion Sanders, who out there reminds you of another great player?

Mel Kiper: That's a good question. Keith Rivers, I've thought about him to New England. And when you think of him in New England, you think about him as the heir apparent to Junior Seau. But he doesn't have the same ''wow!'' factor as Seau. But Rivers, in New England at No. 7, could be the next in line. That would be the comparison there. I think Vernon Gholston, you hope, will be this year's Merriman or Ware. You hope he's the kind of player he is. Rodgers-Cromartie, you hope he produces like Mathis out of Jacksonville. You hope he can move smoothly from the I-AA ranks to the NFL. I see a lot of Reggie Bush in Felix Jones. DeSean Jackson and Ted Ginn. Joe Flacco is a little bit like Derek Anderson. Jordy Nelson like a Dwight Clark. Gary Barnidge is a Jay Novacek-type. John David Booty is a Chad Pennington-type. Jacob Hester is a Brian Leonard-type.


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Eric, Fremont, Nebraska: Mel, doesn't Jake Long make sense to Miami at No. 1 because it gives them more flexibility with their second round picks?

Mel Kiper: In terms of Jake Long, it fits Parcells. You can talk about this in two ways - what would I do and what would you do if you were Bill Parcells? Parcells sees Jumbo Elliot in Jake Long. He has a tremendously tenacious approach. His pass protection skills are still a concern. I thought he would take Chris Long. I thought he would be the perfect Parcells guy. But that doesn't look like that's what's going to happen now.

Mel Kiper: I think he can get a DL with the first pick in the second round.


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Lucas (Las Vegas): If Joe Flacco had played at a bigger school, would he be the #1 rated QB? It seems as though physically he is a better prospect than Matt Ryan.

Mel Kiper: I think if he had played at a Michigan or at a USC or one of those high profile programs, he would have been the No. 1 pick overall. Think about Vinny Testaverde. He had the hype, good arm, he was the No. 1 pick overall. Tim Couch was the No. 1 pick overall - he played at SEC. If I think he would have even stayed at Pitt, I really believe he could have been the No. 1 pick overall or certainly in the top 8.


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JR (Kalamazoo): Mel, how does Manningham's two positive marijuana tests affect his draft status?

Mel Kiper: I think it affects it because he did not have the good combine. Where do you put him? Some teams will probably view him as a second round guy. He did not run well at the combine. But still, there will be a lot of mixed opinions. But it only takes one of 32 teams to like him. I think someone in the second round will take him.

Mel Kiper: And do you know who I gave him to in the projection report? Cincinnati with the 46th pick overall.


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Shawn (Bay Area, CA): Mel, how come Kevin Smith from UCF isn't getting more attention. I know he played weaker competition but when I watch film on this guy he is awesome. Where do you think he will land? He looks better than Forte, Rice, Charles or Slaton. I would love to see the Bears pick him up in round 3.

Mel Kiper: That's who I have them taking in the third round. That's the 70th pick, from San Francisco. The guy that he reminds me of is Lawrence McCutchuen. He's smooth, gliding. He's not very explosive. He's going to be productive and consistent.


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Eric (sioux city): What do you think of IA's Charles Godfrey? He seems like one of the safest prospects of the entire draft because if he fails at CB, he can switch to FS.

Mel Kiper: I like the kid a lot. When Todd McShay and I flip flopped picks on our radio show on Monday night, I picked him for the Packers. I think he's worthy of some late first round consideration. I have him going to Baltimore at 38. You could make the argument that he's the second or third best safety in the draft. You could also make the argument that he's the 5th or 6th best corner. He's a big kid, sturdy. He has big speed. The thing that he has problems with is balls over the top. I'd think he goes early second round.


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Josh McCloud: Iowa City, Ia: Will the bears take Rashard Mendenhall if he is available?

Mel Kiper: I don't think so. I don't see them taking Mendenhall at 14. I think they're going to look at OT. I think RB is an area. There's another RB that I like a lot and it's Felix Jones. Whether it's to Chicago, Arizona, Houston, Dallas, I think he'll be in that mix for a lot of teams in that first round.


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Brad (AL): Mel, any chance Jerod Mayo goes to Detroit?

Mel Kiper: I think that early, that's a possibility for Detroit. What I would say to that is I think MLB is the pressing area for them. Some people view him as an OLB, because he played well in their bowl game. They could take him, but they're changing their whole philosophy. They're going to run the ball more.


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Jared ( Denver CO): Mel who will be the better NFL LT, WIllimas, Clady or Albert? Thanks.

Mel Kiper: Put them in a hat and pick one. That's what I would say. They're too close to call. The thing that Albert gives you is he gives you the versatility to play guard. If he doesn't get done at LT, he can slide inside. Clady has to get a bit stronger and get a mean streak. Williams, the same. But they're both pass blocking LTs. Clady and Williams are athletically gifted and they have quick feet. Now, Clady hasn't been as tested as much as Williams. But all three of those guys should be excellent LTs in this league.


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Jay (Balto): How much would it cost the Ravens to move up from 8th to 5th (Chiefs)? Given their QB troubles, would you make that move to select Matt Ryan?

Mel Kiper: Well, you have to think about this. Do you have another option? Is there another QB that you can get where you can stay where you are? How much do you like Flacco or Henne or Brohm? You need to have a backup plan. Flacco is red hot right now. If you feel there's a huge separation between the two then you move up. They do have a high hopes for Jarred Gaither, who they took in the supplemental draft this summer.


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Matt (Louisville): Brian Brohm did everything that the NFL urges a player to do. Come back for his senior year to gain experience with a new coaching staff, put up better numbers than the previous season. Then how does he go from a projected top ten pick to a second round pick?

Mel Kiper: The more you play, the more your weaknesses are exposed. But the NFL isn't encouraging them. They have a rule in place that you have to stay three years. My point is always you have to pick your spots. If you're hot, you have to come out. Look at what happened to Louisville, they lost their RB, their OL had some losses, a new coaching staff came in. Brohm had to deal with a lot of changes. New OC, different players on the OL, different RBs, players not playing up to what they needed. Brohm is not a guy that can carry the team. He's very cerebral, he's a good decision maker. When things break down, he's not a guy that's going to wow you over. He doesn't have the physical prowess that guys like Flacco, Ryan and those guys. I have him third behind Ryan and Flacco.


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Mike (Philly): Mel - be honest here - you secretly flip out when teams draft outside your big board right? you probably make an excuse to use the bathroom and just stand there in front of the mirror saying to yourself - they're so stupid.

Mel Kiper: Sometimes you're right and sometimes you're wrong on this. There are instances where you are thinking what are they doing and the pick ends up being a good one. But you have to react that way. We're paid to be on that set and to react how the pick goes to your ratings. You can't sit there and say every pick is great. It's like Christmas, you aren't going to say that you don't like something. We know that about half of the first rounders every year aren't going to live up to their potential. Let's look at the 2004 draft and how many didn't live up to their potential - 14 of the 32 in the first round did not live up to their potential. Let's go back to 2003 - 17 of 32. Let's go back to 2002 - 16 of the 32. Let's go to 2000 - 13 of the 31.

Mel Kiper: It averages to about 50% of the first rounders do not live up to their potential. You have to look at it from the standpoint that every pick is not a home run. Obviously, every pick makes sense to the team at the time.


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Tom (Putnam Valley, NY): Mel, Do you think this is RB class is the best you have ever seen?

Mel Kiper: You go back to 2000, in that draft we had Jamal Lewis, Ron Dayne, Thomas Jones, Shaun Alexander all in the first round. Rueben Droughns, Sammy Morris, Mike Anderson. You go back to '06 and you had Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, D'Angelo Williams, Joseph Addai, Lendale White, Maurice-Jones Drew, Jarius Norwood, Leon Washington. Last year we had Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch and not a whole lot else. This group is much better than last year.

Mel Kiper: When Kevin Smith is going to be the 8th RB drafted, that tells you all you need to know.


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John, Tucson, AZ: Antoine Cason had the 2nd best overall combine and wins the Thorpe, why aren't you a fan?

Mel Kiper: I've never had a problem with him. I just don't think he's a first round pick. You have to like the fact that he's battled tested. He has good technique. I don't know about the best combine. I don't agree with that. He ran 4.52. He doesn't have great catchup speed. I think he'll be a heckuva second round pick for someone.


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Doug (NY): In your 4/1 mock, you have the Giants taking Tyrell Johnson. Has he supplanted Phillips as the top safety?

Mel Kiper: He has. I can't speak for all of the teams in the NFL, but he is one of the hottest prospects in the draft right now. Who are the hottest prospects? In no order, Branden Albert, Keith Rivers, Jeff Otah, Mike Jenkins, Tyrell Johnson, Joe Flacco, Jeremy Zuttah.


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Nick (Missoula, MT): Mel, given that anyone's draft board seems to be only 50% accurate in predicting first round value in the NFL, what is the evaluation process missing? What attributes or characteristics are we not evaluating that become relevant for success in the NFL? Has anyone come close to identifying those mysterious intangibles that account for the difference between fulfilled potential versus unfulfilled? Thanks!

Mel Kiper: You'll never be better than that. I'll just go back quickly to the '05 draft, 16 of the 32 have not played up to the level expected. Why is that the case? It's the transition from college to pro is always going to be a difficult part of the process. You're going to the best. In the entire world, the best guys playing football are in the NFL. If you can manhandle and overmatch the guy you're up against in college and you get into the NFL and that's not working anymore, how do you deal with it? Are you willing to put the time in necessary. A lot of these kids don't know what it takes to play in the NFL. Just because you're a great college player doesn't mean you're going to be a success in the NFL. First of all you need a lot of luck. I can tell you a number of people that were saved by their players taken by someone else and turned into a bust. I have a lot of good friends in the league that will tell you that.

Mel Kiper: It's a lot of things that go into it. The biggest thing is a huge jump in competition. People don't realize how big that jump is.


Mel Kiper: We had a lot of fun today. We got more comparisons to other players. We'll be back next week to do it all over again. Instead of 1 next week, we'll be going at noon ET.

I Live In Beastmode!

FireVenturi

What is up with Kiper's man crush with Talib?

hagan714

Talib versatility and upside.

papz

He's been pumping Talib non-stop all offseason... there's no doubt about his man crush. He's been riding Albert pretty hard too. I can't wait to see where each are picked... I'll gladly bow down if he's right about how high these two will go.

pakowitz

i think albert is going to make some team really happy.. he is just a road grader.. he will open holes.. he does have Tackle ability but i think he would be better suited for guard so he can pull and really blow someone off the ball...

papz

...which is exactly why I can't see Albert going as high as 5. Guards just don't go that high. And as a LT, he's still going to be a project.

TheDeuce

Yeah I agree that I can't see a guard going in the top 5, not when there would still be a guy like Clady on the board. Guards just don't go before potential star LTs.

hagan714

But the last to years the OG position have changed so much in the NFL. Look at the FA #s. It has to effect the draft sooner than later. Albert is a rare OG in the draft. We have not had a OG this good in a while. I wont be surprised to see him in the top 10. He is one of the safer picks in the round. besides Kiper is not the only person to wake up to how good this kid is.

papz

That's one thing I can agree with... he's a very safe pick and I have no doubt he'll be an excellent guard. Still, not at 5 where Kiper is projecting him to go in his mock. As much as I've bashed Kiper throughout the years, if Albert even goes in the top 10 much less at 5, I'll start singing a different tune about him. I'm more inline with McShay's projection on the guy... maybe a little higher.

hagan714

Nah do not give kipper to much credit. he just jumped on the band wagon

10 to 15 would not be a reach