pakowitz

Todd McShay: Thanks for your patience... lots to talk about with the draft less than two weeks away... let's get after it...




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Paul (Detroit): It's 12:14pm....

Todd McShay: Thanks, Paul. Punctuality is your thing, huh? We probably wouldn't get along well...


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john,syosset,ny: how can mcfadden go so high when every time someone hits him he goes right down!!!!skinniest legs i have ever seen on a running back...the jets should trade down!!!!!!!

Todd McShay: Skinny legs, yes. But he doesn't go down as easily as everyone seems to think. He won't churn out yards like A.D., but he is big and powerful enough to break far more tackles than a Reggie Bush type. If the Jets have a chance to draft him they should cash in... McFadden and Thomas Jones would complement one another extremely well and McFadden could add some explosiveness to an offense that lacks any spark right now.


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Wes (Griggsville,il): We all know that da Bears will probably take an OT in Rd 1. Who is the best OT for their run game and what will they address in Rd 2

Todd McShay: I think Pitt's Jeff Otah is a good fit. He's a big mauling type ROT that plays around 325 pounds and can dominate the line of scrimmage. He only played one year of organized HS football and is still learning the game. His best ball should still be ahead of him.


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Josh (Baltimore): Does McNair's retirement make drafting Matt Ryan a must for the Ravens and do you see them moving up to draft him if need be?

Todd McShay: I don't think it changes much for the Ravens. They wanted Ryan even when they thought McNair was returning. I don't think it adds enough urgency for them to mortgage away their draft to move up for Ryan. They are high on Joe Flacco, so maybe they trade back into Round 1 to secure him. That's more likely than Baltimore trading up from No. 8 to get Ryan.


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Kevin (NYC): With all the talk of Jake Long, if he doesn't go to the Fish, is it possible Chris Long could fall to the Jets?

Todd McShay: No. St. Louis would consider him at No. 2, as would Atlanta at 3 and Oakland at 4. Absolute worst case for Jake Long is falling to No. 5 -- and that's best case scenario for all you Chiefs' fans.


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John T (Eagan): Is there anything dumber than a mock draft that tries to project trades?

Todd McShay: Ha ha... Right on.


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Matt (Lubbock, Texas): Is Devin Thomas just benefitting from a Wide Receiver class that has been swamped by injuries, is he the real deal, or are all the wide-outs in this class just mediocre?

Todd McShay: He's very talented, but the point is valid. I think Limas Sweed and Malcolm Kelly will be better pros, but they will be selected after Thomas because of injuries and Kelly's slow 40 time. I know it's not cool to like Mario Manningham right now but if he ever gets his act together he could be the best WR from this class when we look back on it 10 years from now... He's so similar to Chad Johnson; very talented but attitude/40 time will cause Manningham to slip at least a round.


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Lane (Kukuihaele, HI): Do you think Pat Sims is a better fit for Atlanta's defensive scheme over Glenn Dorsey?

Todd McShay: No. Not even close. Similar styles but that's like comparing a porsche to a mazda miata... Plus, Sims is slipping due to character concerns. He will probably slide to Day 2.


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Chris (New Orleans, LA): Todd, Great work as always. Was dissapointed there was no ESPN draft mag. this year. But to a question: The Saint's Front Office is tough to figure out in terms of their ability to evaluate talent. Any chance they pass on Rivers or one of the CB's and go Offensive Line? Thanks.

Todd McShay: Thanks, man. Me too. It was a business decision and apparently I have no pull in those circles... makes sense though; print is becoming a dinosaur.
Anyway, I think the Saints understand their needs and the value where they pick. CB is obviously a need but it's not the ideal value. I think the Saints will consider trading up for DT Dorsey first, and then DT Ellis. If they can't find a trade partner, they want LB Rivers. And if all else fails, they will take a CB at that point -- maybe South Florida's Mike Jenkins.

Todd McShay: The Saints also need help at TE, which I think they will address in the second or third round -- assuming they can't get a draft-day trade done for Jeremy Shockey.

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Zac (MN): Hey Todd, great podcast yesterday. It was surprising to see you and Mel get along for the most part. Are the Vikings just going to take the best player available or would they possibly look at trading down to pick up a DE who doesn't have the value at 17 (that's assuming Harvey is off the board). Is there any team that is looking to trade up to 17? That seems a little high for a team jumping back into the 1st for a QB.

Todd McShay: Thanks, Zac. Mel and I actually do get along very well. We're just very passionate about our opinions. The only time you all see us is on tv, when we're obviusly debating our opinions... anyway, I'm convinced the Vikings will take best available player. If it happens to be a DE, great. But the only value pick with a chance of falling to 17 is Derrick Harvey (FLA). Otherwise, Rick Spielman will simply take the best player on the board... the way things are laying out it could be a cornerback like Aqib Talib (Kansas) or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Tenn. State).


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Dave(Charlotte, NC): Are the skins at #21 a good spot for a team to trade back into 1st for a qb, or is this too early?

Todd McShay: I think that's where the bidding could begin. And if WR Devin Thomas is off the board, I'm hearing Washington wants to deal back and get more picks to take advantage of this deep class. Strange but true for a Skins organization that historically has done its drafting via free agency.


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Bob (Phoenix, AZ): Todd - if the Bolts can trade down from 27 to acquire more picks like a 2nd and 3rd - what OT and NT are there in those rounds for them to draft? Thanks!

Todd McShay: I think that's a strong possibility, Bob. OT's like Sam Baker and Anthony Collins would be good values in Round 2, but there isn't much to be excited about at NT to be honest -- that's why the Browns made the moves they did for Williams and Rodgers. ILB is a possibility in the wake of Cooper's 4 game suspension. PSU's Dan Connor and Oklahoma's Curtis Lofton are possibilities early in Round 2.


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Greg, Waterloo, Canada: Hi Todd, if a marquee corner is not on the board can Buffalo trade down and still get a WR that can compliment Evans?

Todd McShay: They could try -- and I think that will be their best option -- but I'm not sure they can find a trading partner. I'm hearing they could reach for WR Devin Thomas, but that would be a REACH. Taking a CB is a better value. Also, don't be shocked if they go with a value pick in DE Derrick Harvey... think about it... it makes some sense if they're stuck at No. 11 considering how thin they are at the position.


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dukie: where you think packers will go todd

Todd McShay: Probably best available DB. Va. Tech's Brandon Flowers makes sense, as does Miami DS Kenny Phillips.


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Joe (Indianapolis, IN): Who do you think the Colts should draft? I am thinking a TE. Maybe John Carleson from ND might be there. RB is an option. If Chris Johnson from East Carolina is there we should take him. thoughts...

Todd McShay: By the time the Colts pick it will be midnight. I'm guessing best available DL with speed. If not, TE is a possibility, but Keller and Davis should be long gone and Carlson doesn't have the speed they want at the position. A&M's Martellus Bennett is not as polished but he's faster and more naturally athletic.


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Daniel, Rocky Mount, NC: Do you think the raiders will really take DMac? Who should they take?

Todd McShay: They should take McFadden if he's available, unless Chris Long is still on the board. If both are available, I think they should go with Long -- but who knows what Al Davis thinks?

Todd McShay: Wow. Lots of great questions squeezed into 45 minutes. Thanks, everyone. And sorry I was running a few minutes late, Paul from Detroit. Looking forward to our final pre-draft chat next week. Until then, be well.

I Live In Beastmode!

pakowitz

ESPN Football Scientest KC Joyner


KC Joyner: Good afternoon! I'm looking forward to a great chat.




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Clint G. (Midland, TX): With the D. Hall signing there are rumors that the Raiders are shopping Fabian Washington. He seemed to have a darn good year in 2006, but regressed last year. What are his metrics those two years?

KC Joyner: Clint, I don't have the metrics right in front of me but I also remember Washington having a good 2006. He was terrible in 2007, with a YPA near 10 yards. Stanford Routt outplayed him big time and with the addition of Hall, that's why Washington is the odd man out.


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Majeed: KC, Ireland slipped today and said they want to build the defense with the 1st pick. Does that mean Chris Long is back in the fold or maybe Gholston?

KC Joyner: I'd bet it would be Long over Gholston, as he seems more consistent.


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Mike (az): KC, Have you seen the cardinals schedule? RIDICULOUS!!!! 3 games in 15 days and another part features back to back weeks of cross country travel (DC then NYJ). Is this a joke? Does the league just wanna keep the cardinals down forever? I mean seriously back to back cross country games is bad enough to the point where the coach is actually considering just keeping the team back east(almost unheard of) but 3 games in a 15 day span! that is just too much!

KC Joyner: Excellent point, Mike. This kind of thing has happened to the Texans the past couple of years and it was so bad I wrote an essay in Scientific Football 2007 that suggested they get the schedule maker some Outback gift certificates for Christmas. Maybe Arizona needs to put him/her on their Christmas list to!


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BJ (New York): Is Jared Allen worth the contract he would demand and the 1st and 2nd rnd picks it will take for the Vikes to acquire him? for a team like them, with a glaring weakness at DE, but no where else on the D, is the perfect fit? or would the picks and huge contract be too much? would drafting a DE make more sense?

KC Joyner: Allen is as good as advertised. In past years he had something of an issue with conditioning and would wear down in the latter half of the season but that issue has been corrected with a strong workout regimen. Having said that, the only time to put out high draft picks for a player is if you are trying to make a Super Bowl run. The Vikes aren't in that position right now and, besides, the first time they make a draft picks for player trade, whoever makes it will risk being seen as the next Mike Lynn.


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Rob RI: The Cardinals shouldn't complain. The Pats have 2 back to back trips West.

KC Joyner: Every team's got a beef!


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Lane (Kukuihaele, HI): Chris Long played for Al Groh and Groh coached for Parcells. I'm sure Parcells knows Long can play and will make him #1.

KC Joyner: Excellent point, Lane. Parcells will certainly know if Long can be "one of his guys" as he likes to put it.


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Broad Street Brian (Philly): The Eagles really need a receiver and Chad Johnson really wants to leave. I know the cap hit would be huge for Cincy to trade him and for any teams that signs him. (Due to contract demands) My question is this: Could Chad be an effective west coast receiver, He doesn't seem to like the middle of the field. What does your scout eyes tell us!!

KC Joyner: Johnson ranked well in a lot of the route types I tracked in Scientific Football 2007, so that would indicate he could be the all-around receiver Philly needs. I don't think they'll go for him because they don't want another potential WR headache case.


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George (Denver): KC, I'm a big fan. First, when will SF 2008 be available online/in stores (as opposed to pre-order)? Second, what measurables does Jay Cutler need to improve on to be considered a top flight QB (aside from WINS)? Third, do you think YAC/reception or Total Receiving Yards is a more accurate indication of a receiver's yardage totals?

KC Joyner: SF 2008 should be available around late June or so. Regarding Cutler, his metric play last year was pretty solid. He does have some bad decision work to do but the Broncos issues right now aren't much due to Cutler. For receivers, YAC is important for certain types of receivers but I would still put success percentage and YPA at the top of my list when grading them.


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Sam (Chicago): KC, pretend if you were GM Jerry Angelo and had to deal with Devin Hester wanting a new contract. What exactly are you going to pay him as? What are returners worth, especially when Hester claims that the game is changed everytime he is on the field. Do you pay him top WR money, somewhere between, or do you make up some type of deal that is loaded with incentives?

KC Joyner: Loaded with incentives. I did an article on Hester a few weeks ago that looked at his WR metrics and, although some were good, he still has a ways to go before he can be considered a true #2 WR, much less a #1 or a bona fide dominant WR. I'd make him put up at least one year's worth of starting WR numbers before paying out big money due to that part of his game.


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Chris (Jersey City): What about the idea of the Jets bringing in Chad Johnson? They've been spending like crazy this offseason and this is their best chance to bring a top-tier WR at eighty cents on the dollar. This would make even more sense if they were to trade down and then parlay on the picks they receive in return for Ocho Cinco. Thoughts?

KC Joyner: Ocho Cinco in New York? Now that's an interesting and scary thought all at the same time. He could help put their offense over the top but given the other holes NY has, I don't know that they are in a good position to be paying out too many high draft picks for #85.


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Zac (MN): Remember KC, The Vikings have cap space to sign Allen to a big deal and they haven't ever had success drafting DEs. Underwood, Udeze, James. And a 17 overall pick isn't that high. The Vikings would love to have Jared Allen. Do you think a trade of our 1 and 3rd round picks this year and maybe a 2 or 3 next year gets the deal done?

KC Joyner: Zac, from what I understand Kansas City is going to drive a hard bargain on this one. I would be surprised if a #1 and a #3 alone do it for them.


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KJ (New York): Do you think its a good idea for pacman to wait and be traded before he gets reinstated?? because as a cowboy fan I would like to have him but I would feel alot safer if he was reinstated before we trade for him not that im expecting for him to screw up

KC Joyner: I'd have to think that the Cowboys could get some kind of an answer from the league office before closing this thing out. At some level it would solve a league headache (or at least move it to the next phase), so they'd want to work with the Boys on this one.


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Keith (MD): How will the Ravens star quarterback retiring affect them this season and in the draft?

KC Joyner: I think they were in a rebuilding mode in any event, as they have a ton of older players on their roster. Even so, they certainly have to be thankful it happened before the draft and not after it.


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Steven (tulsa): the Jared allen reports also mention a visit to Tampa. Would tampa give up a 1 & 3 and maybe one of their many QB's (Chris Simms)?

KC Joyner: Now that's an intriguing thought. Simms was showing himself to be a solid starting QB before the injury. If he's over the injury (and that's a big if), the Chiefs might be able to pick up some picks and possibly solve their QB issue all at once. I like this prospect.


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Raymond (Baltimore): KC long time no chat.. Have you had a chance to watch/scout Matt Ryan, what do the metrics and your eye say? I personally think he is overrated and benefiting from the lack of a elite level QB prospect..

KC Joyner: Good to have you back in the chat! I did run some metrics on Ryan in my ESPN Insider article this week. They said a lot of what the experts are saying. He had a great YPA at all depth levels, which is especially impressive given the lack of quality WRs BC had last year. His bad decision percentages were really high, though, and that's going to be his big problem. I still think he can overcome them and be the next Matt Hasselbeck.


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Ryan: (Nampa ID): Hey KC, you are the best chat guy at ESPN. The rest are late, slow and finish early. So I was wondering who you got the Raiders taking and why? Please don't say McFadden...

KC Joyner: I appreciate that, but I do have to take up for the rest of the crew. A lot of them have some crazy schedules to work around and they still find a way to fit in as much time as possible for these chats. Regarding the Raiders, I mentioned in this week's Insider article that history suggests they are unlikely to take McFadden. They simply don't go for RBs that high in any draft.


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Sam (Chicago): KC, I understand Parcells is really driving the Miami Dolphins decision "bus" but when does Tony Sporano get to chime in on who he likes/dislikes going into the draft? It seems like Parcells is the only authority at all when the Dolphins offseason plans are discussed...

KC Joyner: Sam, the one thing Parcells left Dallas with was a roster with an incredible amount of talent. When someone is on that hot of a player acquisition streak, if I'm the coach I don't want to do anything to get in his way. Sparano will get his say eventually but right now he should be happy with whoever Parcells gives him. Miami needs as many good players as they can get.


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Vincent (Chicago): With a deep draft but a large dropoff after the first six players, shouldn't the Pats try to trade completely out of the first round - maybe a #2 this year and a #1 next year from a team that wants Ryan or another sliding player? Then take a CB and a LB in round 2 so not to overpay/overdraft?

KC Joyner: Vincent, you are preaching the choir on this one. The Pats probably do want to trade out but it's hard to get proper value when everyone knows you want to do so. One overlooked part of this is that all it will take is one of those first six teams to make an unexpected move and that #7 pick is then worth a whole lot more. Don't be surprised if they don't make a trade until the day of the draft if at all.


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Ryan: (Nampa ID): So who do you have the Raiders taking then?

KC Joyner: It depends on how the first three picks work out but I'm betting D line.


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Jay (Balto): You're the Ravens head coach. Kyle Boller or Troy Smith? I have to go Troy Smith; he can do no worse than what Boller's done.

KC Joyner: I'd agree with you on that one. Boller has already shown what his upside is. Smith isn't as good as Boller right now but there were enough solid plays in his repertoire last year to make me think he has plenty of upside.


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Justin (LA, CA): Come on KC - You know you want to tell us your mock draft. What does the top 5-10 look like in your mind?

KC Joyner: Justin, my top picks in the mock would look very close to what Kiper and McShay have as their top picks. The only place I differ is Oakland.


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Jay (Balto): What do you think of Football Outsiders' rookie QB projection system (starts and completion percentage)?

KC Joyner: What I like about the FO rookie QB projection system is that they have been able to show that more starts tends to equal more success. They back up the claim with hard evidence and I'm always a fan of that.


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Ed (Fond du Lac, WI): KC, where do the Packers go at 30. Conventional wisdom would say the Packers need a nickel CB, but TT never goes the way everyone predicts. What would you say if they drafted a RB like Stewart from Oregon, or WR Desean Jackson from Cal (if he falls because of his size)? You can never have too many playmakers, especially for a young QB.

KC Joyner: Ed, this is only somewhat related to your question but I ran some of the Packers CB numbers last night and found that Jarrett Bush wasn't nearly as bad from a metric standpoint as he was from a scouting eye standpoint (6.5 YPA). He's young and could get better, so that's one reason GB may not go with a CB with their first pick.


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Eric (Sioux City): Have you seen the new draft pick value chart? Did they subtract too much value for the early picks?

KC Joyner: I did see the new chart in ESPN The Magazine and thought they did a great job with it.


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Eric (Sioux City): Does their lack of a replacement preclude the Vikes from including Mt.McKinnie in a package for Allen?

KC Joyner: Yeah, that's part of it. I also wouldn't break up a very good O line to pick up a D lineman, even one as good as Allen.


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Mikey(Lackawanna,NY): Do you think the QB class of 2004 consisting of Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger will go down as one of the best classes in NFL history?

KC Joyner: I know this is going to be seen as Rivers bashing, but it all depends on him. If Rivers does live up to the hype and can take SD to a Super Bowl, I'd have to list it as possibly the best QB draft in history.


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Waky (Chicago): Wut??? U guys r crazy??? y r u talkin bout this instead of Steve McNair??? Hes a hall of Famer!

KC Joyner: Waky, I've been a big fan of McNair's over the years and am glad you brought him up. Having said that, I can't quite check off the Hall of Fame marker on him.


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Matt Tone (West Palm): KC- Of all the rumored trades out there right now, which player do you see as the most likely to be moved by draft day? Thanks!

KC Joyner: I'd say Lito Sheppard. Good CBs are hard to come by and Sheppard still has some gas left in the tank.


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Johnny(Queens): KC, True of False: JP Losman will get traded on draft day?

KC Joyner: I'd say false. They just aren't going to get enough value for him.


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Mitch (Gainesville, FL): How do you see Carolina's offense doing next season, assuming Delhomme is healthy?

KC Joyner: That's a big if but I'd say they will be a great offense. Just remember how well they did with Delhomme last year before adding a quality WR like Hackett. Carolina would be a top 10 offense at the very least if Delhomme's arm holds up.


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Mac (Tampa): If the Buccs acquire Allen, would they have a top five D? Gaines and Allen on the edges. Phillips and TJack in the deep patrol.

KC Joyner: Their D would once again be the dominant Bucs D, assuming Adams can remain consistent in his play. And don't forget Ruud and June at LB are pretty good, too.


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Albi (Manhattan): Any truth to the Shockey-Saints rumors? Do you think he could finally put up some amazing number with a change of scenery and the right offense? He has never lived up to his potential in New York.

KC Joyner: I haven't heard any inside info on this one but NO does need more talent on O. They've been getting by with the smoke and mirrors approach but that only works for so long. NY might take what they can get for Shockey given how Boss played in his place last year.


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Albi (Manhattan): Doesn't this retirement make the Ravens desperate to get Matt Ryan? I don't think a 2nd round QB could come in and play this year, so this leaves them hanging high.

KC Joyner: I think they would have been likely to make this move either way. McNair probably only had a year or two left max in their minds anyway.


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Randy (Wyoming): What do you think of the Broncos signing Darrell Jackson?

KC Joyner: Jackson is an aging player coming off one of his worst seasons, so at one level it's a risky move. I also question his chops as a blocker, and Denver doesn't work well with WRs that don't excel in that department.


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Lane (Kukuihaele, HI): Whoa!!! The 1983 QB Class is the best ever. Elway-2 Super Bowl wins in 5 starts. HOF Kelly- 4 Super Bowls starts. HOF Marino- 1 Super Bowl start. HOF Tony Eason- 1 Super Bowl start.

KC Joyner: The 2004 class wouldn't be in front of that class just yet, that's for sure. If Rivers does win a Super Bowl, though, that class would have one more championship win and they still have a lot of career time left to go.


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Tony (TX): Is this the year the Texans finish above 500? Besides AJ, Mario, Dunta, and DeMeco, do they have any near pro-bowl level players?

KC Joyner: Remember the name Fred Bennett. His YPA last year was under five yards. That was only for a partial season but it's still a dominant number. I'm predicting he'll be better than Dunta in 2008.


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Steve-O(B-LO): I thought the class of 2005 of Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, and Jason Campbell is the best ever?

KC Joyner: Ouch!


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Anthony (NYC): KC I think the QB class of 2004 has good players, yet the key seems to be that those guys were lucky to be picked by good teams that have talented players around them. The QBs didn't have to carry a whole franchise.

KC Joyner: Anthony, let's give credit where it's due. Eli took over a volatile offense and did a superb job with it this past postseason. And Ben is a better QB today than he was in his Super Bowl winning year.


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Eric (Sioux City): Lane couldn't be any more correct. Marino carried a perrenially terrible team on his back, Elway is the only reason Shannahan still has a job, and Kelly led his team to four SBs. Eli had a nice four game stretch, but the Giants pass rush won the SB. Rivers hasn't done anything to prove his anything more than average.

KC Joyner: Don't get me wrong, I'm still firmly in the 1983 class is best column. I just think the argument is a bit closer than many would think, especially with the 2004 guys being as early in their careers as they are.


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Hunter (Dallas): If the Cowboys do end up with Pacman Jones, how badly do they need to add another CB? They're very shallow at that position, but Pacman has great potential and they really like Alan Ball (of course they liked Reeves as well). Some people say even if the Cowboys get Pacman they should go CB in the first, I tend to disagree. Your thoughts?

KC Joyner: The Boys are in a position where they can make a Super Bowl run right now. If Jones plays to his potential (which is an elite 5 YPA range CB), he could be the Deion Sanders like pickup of this generation for the Cowboys. He's that good and could put them over the top for the Super Bowl. I'd take the chance if I were them.


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George (PA): Don't forget class of 83 Ken O'Brien. Rivers is looking like his clone


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Andrew(Florida): Jim Kelly, John Elway, and Dan Marino are all great QB's! But their records in SuperBowls 2-8 is not to good! Manning and Big Ben 2-0!

KC Joyner: OK, I'll end this one on that note! Before I go, I do want to pass along that you can find the chapter listing for Blindsided (my new book coming out in August 2008) on Wiley.com. I'll also have the listing on my site, The Football Scientist, in the next day or so. Hope to see you all next week!

I Live In Beastmode!

thesaintsfan

That was a great read, thanks pak. I think that one of the rumored trades will do down and we'll either trade for Shockey of go up and get Dorsey.

foreverfan

Great find. You are to be commended again.