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Falcons leaning toward Ryan
The more sources we talk to, the more we hear that the Atlanta Falcons are leaning toward taking QB Matt Ryan with the No. 3 overall pick. The Falcons had two visits with DT Glenn Dorsey in the last 10 days -- one on the LSU campus, the other in Atlanta -- and they think he is a perfect fit for what they would like to do defensively, but general manager Tom Dimitroff is apparently considering how his former employers, the New England Patriots, built their team in a somewhat unorthodox manner.

Most teams like to build from the inside out, first improving on both sides of the line of scrimmage then moving to the skill positions, but the Patriots got lucky with Tom Brady in the sixth round in 1999 and put their own spin on that system. So why not take Ryan at No. 3 if Atlanta is convinced he has the intangibles to become a Brady-like leader and passer? The chatter in recent weeks has had the Falcons taking Ryan only if Dorsey is off the board, but it is looking more and more like Ryan could be their guy. And make no mistake about it, this is a Dimitroff decision. Owner Arthur Blank is sticking to his word that he will offer only opinions and allow Dimitroff to make all the football decisions.



Jets high on Ryan, too
Call it a smoke screen or simply a leak from the draft room, but word is the New York Jets would seriously consider taking Ryan if he should fall to their spot at No. 6 overall. We've talked to three league sources who are convinced New York would snatch Ryan up at that spot even though they drafted Kellen Clemens just two years ago. That's good news for the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 5, who have seen the Jets and Patriots (No. 7) get plenty of interest in their picks from teams looking to trade up but might now hear from teams wanting to get ahead of New York in order to select Ryan.

We're also hearing that Carolina is in love with Ryan as well and is maybe the team most likely to trade into the top seven to get him.



Henne creating first-round buzz
Chad Henne continues to be the hot name as the likely second quarterback off the board. Many scouts are in love with either Brian Brohm (consistent, accurate and steady) or Joe Flacco (great size and arm strength, deceptive mobility) as that second guy, but there is widespread buzz that a mystery team picking somewhere in the teens is in love with Henne and is in a dilemma over how to get him.

No one seems to know which team it is -- perhaps Carolina (No. 13), Chicago (No. 14) or even Minnesota (No. 17). But the general feeling is that the team knows it would be reaching to take him that high in the first round and would like to trade back a bit in order to get better value with Henne and also pick up an extra pick in a later round. That would obviously be the first priority, as the options of trading up into the top of the second round or simply staying put and hoping Henne is available in the middle of the second round are not nearly as attractive.

Should Henne come off the board that early there would then be added urgency late in the first round and early in the second for those teams looking to fill a need at quarterback. That would mean some combination of Miami, Atlanta, Baltimore, Carolina, Chicago and maybe Minnesota all fighting for the right to draft Brohm or Flacco. Stay tuned, because we're digging to bring you the name of that mystery team.



Saints looking to move up
After talking to a person familiar with the New Orleans Saints' draft planning it is clear they are actively seeking a reasonable deal to move into the top five. The St. Louis Rams at No. 2 are the primary target as the Saints would like to get Dorsey, and the secondary options include trading up to No. 4 (Oakland), No. 5 (Kansas City) or No. 7 (New England) to get second-rated DT Sedrick Ellis.

If they can't get a deal done the Saints could stay home at No. 10 and hope OLB Keith Rivers falls to them, trade back and get one of the top cornerbacks later in the first round, or stay at 10 and select the top corner on their board -- we're hearing Mike Jenkins -- if Rivers is not available at that point.

RB Stewart headed to Denver?
Following up on a note from last week, RB Jonathan Stewart continues to be a hot topic in scouting circles as he moves back up the board following turf toe surgery in March. Stewart's surgery combined with several nagging injuries during his college career sent his stock sliding, but now that he has healed and tested for teams again it is clear most are comfortable that his toe is not an issue.

Denver (No. 12) and Carolina seem to have the most interest among teams in the top 20, and we're told the chances are good that the Broncos will take Stewart if their favorite offensive tackle prospect -- Chris Williams -- is off the board. Denver has always felt it could find running backs in the later rounds and turn them into 1,000-yard rushers in its zone blocking system, but that philosophy has not worked out in recent years and the Broncos obviously think Stewart would be a nice fit in their offense.




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Friday, April 18
The retirement of QB Steve McNair doesn't change the draft needs of the Baltimore Ravens, but it does add some urgency to the draft process. Baltimore was already planning on using an early-round pick on a quarterback, but the McNair news catapults that need ahead of other positions such as cornerback and offensive tackle.

Here are a few of the Ravens' potential options on Day 1:

1. Stay at No. 8 and hope that Boston College QB Matt Ryan falls that far.
2. Trade into the top five to assure themselves of getting Ryan.
3. Use the eighth pick to address a different position, then package picks to move from No. 38 overall into the late first round and secure a second-tier quarterback like Delaware's Joe Flacco, Louisville's Brian Brohm or Michigan's Chad Henne.
4. Stay put at No. 38 and take the best available quarterback on the board.

Less likely than any of the above scenarios is moving back from No. 8 if Ryan is off the board, collecting an extra pick or two and selecting the second-tier quarterback they covet the most, rumored to be Flacco. While that sounds nice in theory, Baltimore can't count on finding a trade partner willing to pay what it takes to move into the top 10.

As I mentioned on ESPN Radio, the situation is muddied even further by the possibility that the Atlanta Falcons, who already own the No. 3 overall pick, could trade back into the top seven in order to snatch up Ryan before the Ravens have a chance. The Falcons have three second-round picks (34, 37 and 38) and could package those picks in exchange for the No. 7 overall selection, a spot the New England Patriots would like to get out of.

Atlanta has an advantage where this potential trade is concerned because Falcons general manager Tom Dimitroff worked for the Patriots the last six seasons and obviously has a relationship with Pats coach Bill Belichick and general manager Scott Pioli. Dimitroff would do well to take a defensive player such as DT Glenn Dorsey or DE Chris Long, then package those second-rounders in order to get Ryan and end up spending four picks to get two of the elite players in the draft.

It doesn't help, either, that the Ravens have only nine picks in the upcoming draft and four of them are untradeable compensatory picks.

While there's obviously no guarantee that Ryan is the answer to the Ravens' problems, he is a significantly better prospect than any other signal-caller in this year's class. In fact, current Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is the only quarterback in the last five drafts who I gave a higher grade than Ryan. If Baltimore shares a similar opinion it would definitely consider the option of moving up, no matter how costly.

Using the NFL Draft Value Chart as a jumping-off point, it would cost the Ravens 1,200 points to make a deal with the Rams for the second overall selection, a spot that would, all but assure them of getting Ryan. That's the equivalent of the 12th overall pick, so the Ravens would probably need to offer up this year's second-round pick and next year's first-rounder. However, as much as I believe in Ryan, such a deal is too rich -- both financially and in terms of picks -- for even my blood.

If Ryan gets past Atlanta at No. 3, it would only cost the Ravens 300 points (equivalent to a late-second) to move up to pick No. 5 in a deal with the Chiefs. In comparison, it would cost the Ravens 280 points to trade up from No. 38 to, say, No. 21 to secure their next-best quarterback option. So if there's practically no difference in the trade value in these two scenarios, why not move in order to get the consensus top quarterback prospect? Sure, it would cost more to sign Ryan, but isn't it worth the investment?


It was five years ago that the team traded back into the late first round for a second-tier quarterback prospect in Kyle Boller, and his failure to develop is the reason the Ravens are in this mess today. It would be ignorant to believe the scenarios will be as cut-and-dry as they are laid out above, but should the opportunity present itself it would be wise for the Ravens to avoid a similar scenario this time around and make an aggressive move to land Ryan.




Jared Allen trade fallout
If a Jared Allen deal goes down as has been reported by my ESPN colleagues, the Minnesota Vikings would be huge winners.

The Vikings' biggest need is at defensive end, but Chris Long and Vernon Gholston would be long gone by the time the Vikings select at No. 17, and it's highly unlikely Derrick Harvey will be around either. In trading for Allen, though, Minnesota would get a known commodity and one of the league's best pass rushers, who would be an ideal fit in defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier's speed-oriented Cover 2 scheme.

Sure, Allen comes with some off-the-field baggage, but trading for him is less of a risk than standing pat at No. 17 and hoping for Harvey, who has very good tools, but is inconsistent and unproven.


On the flip side, the Chiefs would be left in no man's land with their own No. 5 selection and Minnesota's No. 17. Their biggest needs at that point would be offensive tackle and defensive end, followed by cornerback, but OT Jake Long would be gone before the Chiefs pick and the next-best linemen -- Ryan Clady and Branden Albert -- would both be reaches at that point.


Gholston is a possibility with the fifth pick, but that will also be a reach for a player who disappears from games far too often. And it's certainly too high for Harvey, who is rumored to be their target, but would likely be off the board at No. 17. The team should land one of the top four corners -- Leodis McKelvin, Mike Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie or Aqib Talib -- with the 17th pick, but second-tier tackles Jeff Otah and Chris Williams will likely also be gone and there likely won't be a defensive end on the board worth the selection.

Essentially, the Chiefs will get younger, rid themselves of Allen whose sure to get a monster contract after his franchise tender expires, while finding good value at No. 17. They will reach for a defensive end or offensive tackle at No. 5, but then be left with a gaping hole at the other spot.



The mess at wide receiver
Michigan State's Devin Thomas has seen his stock soar lately, and while there is no denying his physical skills he has risen to the top of the wide receiver class in part because of the pre-draft struggles of other big-name wideouts.

Malcolm Kelly has dealt with a quad injury and questions about past knee problems, and he also had a poor on-campus workout in which he complained about the setup of the workout as well as the Oklahoma training staff. Limas Sweed has struggled to overcome a wrist injury that has nagged him since before the college season. DeSean Jackson weighed in at 169 pounds at the combine and questions have come up about his work ethic, while Mario Manningham and Adarius Bowman have had issues with lying about failed drug tests and marijuana possession, respectively.

Thomas, of course, has been the beneficiary and I now have him going 11th overall to Buffalo in my latest mock draft.



Stewart rising again
Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart saw his stock drop somewhat after undergoing turf toe surgery in mid-March, but he rebounded quickly. Two NFL teams told me this week that he is potentially a top-20 pick at this point.


I still think Rashard Mendenhall will be second back taken after Darren McFadden, but Stewart might not be far behind. Teams in the middle of the first round with at least some interest in a running back include Denver (12), Carolina (13), Chicago (14), Detroit (15), Arizona (16), Houston (18) and Dallas (23).



Todd McShay is the director of college football scouting for Scouts Inc. He has been evaluating prospects for the NFL draft since 1998.

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Euphoria

Seeing smoke screen here??? So the Saints don't pull the Trigger on the trade at number 2. So the Falcons can snag Dorsey?