DonCanabis

2009 SEASON
WEEK 11 PICKS

Well, apparently we’re back to weird ’09 season, it seems that this is the years of the underdog; for the past two weeks 17 out of 28 games have been either Won or cover by the underdog that’s completely unheard of and with Miami beating Carolina this past Thursday it seems that the trend continues… The second half of the season starts this week and every team knows they have to give it all if they want to play in January… For 21 of the past 22 Season at least 1 team with a 5-5 record has reached the Playoffs so to at least be at .500 at this point it’s crucial.

Quick Hits

•Well to continue my own trend I started the week with a loss … Like I said losing Brown would hurt Miami use of the WildCat and was right from my count they only use it twice… But as it turns out they didn’t need the trick plays as much as the thought with Williams destroying the Panther’s defense… Miami will try to use this long week to teach pat White more so they can keep using a form of WildCat... But if they continue to play like they did Thursday I don’t see way they need it.

• I’m with the group that opposes a 18 game season, yes I want as much football as I can get and I can do without at least 1 Preseason game, but every year we see players go down with season ending injuries and it has become a league of the team that can remain the healthiest or has most depth will make the playoffs… If we add two more games specially being one in another country we will have a season of backups.

•I played Football for 12 years all the way to College as a DE and was fortunate enough to never have a concussion, I do believe something has to be down about it so players can be more protected and at least teams are taking more time in putting the players back in but, I also believe is the players own fault.. I saw and still see player’s use bigger helmets so they can fit their 20 pounds of hair and players not putting their chin straps all the way through… Helmets are made to fit tight so it doesn’t move and not pop out… A lot of players are more focus in looking good that being safe.

• I don’t get why the NFL doesn’t make every play reviewable at least before the 2mintues when coaches can challenge, they only have 2 challenges per game so why not let them use them as they want… every week we see calls that change the outcome of a game that fall in the category of unreviewable and it’s stupid if you have the technology to see the play than why not use it, Referees can always say that it wasn’t enough evidence to overturn the call if the case but when there’s clear evidence why not use it… I don’t get it.

•Ralph Wilson did two things this week I’ve never thought he would do; especially at 90. He fired a coach in midseason and has said that he will go for experience Head Coach… what better way to say you’re never too old to change. I hope Dan Snyder and Jerry Jones learn this from the 90 year old owner.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City 10 Ovr/Und 40
What can say about this game other than with Bowe suspended, Chambers injured and L.J in Cincinnati the only way I can see this game going over is if Pittsburgh scores 41 points. If Haley screamed at Cassel last week in a win, man he might assault him after this one.
Straight: Pit
Spread: Pit
Ovr/Und: Und


San Francisco at Green Bay -6.5 Ovr/Und 42.5

Finally Green Bay played (at least their defense) as I expected my NFC Champion preseason prediction to do. Now the question is can they continue to do it in a consistent way. I’m worried about their offense even if they won they needed a huge game by their defense to do so Rodgers still gets sacked a lot and this week they face another though defense. San Francisco hasn’t impress me since week 4, even in last week win it wasn’t like they beat Chicago more like they beat themselves… they have a great defense and they’re going to the right way I just don’t know if they have enough for this year. One thing is sure they should stop trying to be a passing team when you have Gore there.
Straight: GB
Spread: SF
Ovr/Und:Und

Cleveland at Detroit -3.5 Ovr/Und 38
The Clash of the Titans I know everyone mark this game on their calendar when the Schedule came out in March…Both teams are dealing with injuries but only one is having front office Issues.. Also, at least Detroit has some playmakers in their team… The Lions know this, when Shaun Rogers is the best player in your team you don’t have many good players.

Straight: Det
Spread: Det
Ovr/Und: Ovr

Indianapolis at Baltimore 1 Ovr/Und 44

Indianapolis might not be playing great and have had to come from behind too many times this season but at the end they find ways to win even if it takes a weird call from the opposition, their defense have huge problems in the secondary and if Flacco can get some big plays they can be in trouble… Baltimore started red hot but teams have figured them out and their defense it’s just a glimpse of what it used to. I didn’t liked how they played last week against Cleveland right now I don’t see it.

Straight: Ind
Spread: Ind
Ovr/Und: Ovr

Seattle at Minnesota -11 Ovr/Und 46.5
Should Favre receive a percentage of Children’s new contract? We all knew he was in the hot seat this season with all the talent that team has… how much difference a good QB does to a team. This is going to be a tough game even if at paper it doesn’t look like it… Both teams have great defense and Seattle can score take the points and the under for this one.

Straight: Min
Spread: Sea
Ovr/Und: Und

Washington at Dallas -11 Ovr/Und 41.5
Yes, we have a pulse the Redskins are still alive. I swear Vegas does things like this just to torture me an 11 point spread for a division game after Washington played a great game against Denver and Dallas did nothing against GB… And with my luck Dallas will cover. Both teams have great passrush and are hurt at the Oline. Washington has been able to score consistent points since Sherman took over not a lot but enough to take the Over on this game.

Straight: Dal
Spread: Was
Ovr/Und: Ovr

Jacksonville at Buffalo 9 Ovr/Und 42.5
Buffalo did what it had to and sometimes this midseason changes help push the team but this team has to many problems in the offense for the Defensive Coordinator to fix in a Week… Jacksonville has decided to be a big tease the whole season every time you expect them to start being contenders they fold… let’s hope it doesn’t happen this week.

Straight:Jac
Spread: Jac
Ovr/Und: Und

Atlanta at New York Giants -6.5 Ovr/Und 46
New York got their bye at the best moment if not I don’t know if they would be able to stop the bleeding.... not only they got time to heal but they woke up Monday knowing they still have a chance to get the division and if history serves me well when you have a chance to kill the beast and you don’t do it, it ends up biting you in the ass. Atlanta without Turner will have a tough time against the NY defense that even without Pierce it’s the healthiest it has been this whole year.

Straight: NYG
Spread: NYG
Ovr/Und: Ovr

New Orleans at Tampa Bay 11.5 Ovr/Und 51

The Saints might be undefeated but it’s not the same team it was 5 weeks ago, every week they have had to come from behind even against lesser teams to win their games, they have problems in the secondary …. Tampa Bay has had a second air with the rookie QB and could had won last week I expect NO to still be undefeated at least for 1 more week but I don’t see them cover this one.

Straight: NO
Spread: TB
Ovr/Und: Und

Arizona at St. Louis 9 Ovr/Und 47

Warner’s probable last chance to shine in St. Louis and I expect him to do it.. St. Louis shown some promise last week going head 2 head against the Saints Bulger look comfortable for the first time in like 2 years if he can do it again we might have a ball game.

Straight: Ari
Spread: Ari
Ovr/Und: Ovr

New York Jets at New England -10.5 Ovr/Und 45
Who had a worst week the Jets players after the Jacksonville loss or the New England players after theirs? The patriots should take this game but an 11 point line is to big this late in the season with every team trying to fight to get in the playoffs.
Straight: NE
Spread: NYJ
Ovr/Und: Ovr

Cincinnati at Oakland 9.5 Ovr/Und 36

What a best week to rest your work horse after two hard division games and put to practice your new toy against the Oakland Raiders and their 4th worst defense against the run. So finally Al I mean Cable did the smart thing and sit Russell and to think they cut Garcia because they didn’t want Russell to feel like his job was in jeopardy, this move was 10 weeks late.

Straight: Cin
Spread: Cin
Ovr/Und: Und

San Diego at Denver 3 Ovr/Und 44.5
And for the third year in a row San Diego has come from the Ashes and take their division.. With no Kyle Orton and the level the Chargers have been playing lately I expect them to take this game and with that the division. So if nothing changes this will be my first mistake from my midseason predictions.
Straight: SD
Spread: SD
Ovr/Und: Ovr

Philadelphia at Chicago : -3 Ovr/Und 45
Man I love that all the Cutler Hype has wash over I couldn’t understand why everyone was calling this ***** a franchise QB last year I thought it would hurt Denver but I didn’t expect it would save the Bears.. This guy thinks he’s above everyone else and reminds me so much of Jeff George it makes me want to throw up… The News that Westbrook’s career might be over really got me if it was a player that I’ve respected and admire the past few years it has been him he was a more explosive version of Marshall Faulk that just couldn’t stay healthy.
Straight:Phi
Spread: Phi
Ovr/Und: Und

Tennessee at Houston : -5 Ovr/Und 48
The Titans are running high and talking about a 10-0 streak to reach the playoffs they’ve been playing great and Young is playing solid… I still don’t like the kid and don’t think he has a long future in the NFL but he looks better than the past 2 years. I do believe Tennessee run will end this week but it will be a close one.
Straight: Hou
Spread: Ten
Ovr/Und: Und



The Back to Reality Picks (29-33) 46%
Pittsburgh (League)
Cincinnati (League)
San Diego (League)
Washington
Tampa Bay
Philadelphia

bobad

If a little bit of BAL's former great defense shows up, they could give IND
a nasty surprise.

Rugby Saint II

Come on Don...11.5? We may be playing pretty sloppy but, we should be able to force those points off of turnovers alone.

DonCanabis

You can say the same about last week against St. louis and the past other 3 weeks agains atlanta, Carolina and Miami. Your team has needed the forthQuarter to win the past 4 games and in jus 1 of those 4 games they won by more than 11

Frederick Smith

I also think Indy may have a surprise here if they can get Manning out of sorts.
What would be a surprise more than to see the Vik's falter my pick for an upset If A. P. does not have a good day..
I also do not have the Saints the Saints covering this spread but winning . I hope I am wrong on this one.

DonCanabis

Well peyton is 6-0 in his career against the Ravens including the Playoffs and that's against the good Baltimore Defense... If they can't stop Manning I on't see them winning

D_it_up

Looks like that 11.5 was covered....and then some.

DonCanabis

finally they beta a bad team like they're soupoused to