xan

Interesting insight into how the betting lines for the NFC and AFC championship games have been set and movement since open.


Betting Line Movement Analysis

Note the last paragraph....

homerj07

Not an "Insider" all I got was some nonsense about the Jets & Saving Prvt Ryan.

UK_WhoDat

Help us xan aka Professor Crab. We are not "Insiders"

xan

So Sorry


From ESPN:

NFL Line Moves: Conference championships

Friday, January 22, 2010 | Print Entry

We're facing a "Saving Private Ryan" scenario.

Remember that movie? The one that should have won the Best Picture Oscar instead of "Shakespeare in Love" back in 1998? Since it's more than a decade old, I am going to ruin the ending for you by making a thoughtful, cogent, intelligent point about the Jets-Colts game this weekend. It ends with the Jets as a German soldier or Gwyneth Paltrow. Or both.

Bear with me.

In the middle of "Saving Private Ryan," the Tom Hanks character, Capt. John Miller, and his men come across some German soldiers in the middle of a green pasture. They shoot at each other over a bunch of dead cows before the good guys finally kill all the bad guys. Except for one. The Americans line the German up, consider killing him and then, at the last minute, Hanks' character gives him a reprieve. As Hanks' men watch, he lets the bad guy run away to live, and fight, another day.

So what happens at the end of the movie? Hanks and his men have saved Pvt. Ryan, but now they have some unfinished business against the enemy in some bombed-out town. As the battle wages, the camera pans the Germans' front line and, wouldn't you know it, the guy Hanks let free is there, firing his bullets as fast as he can. Naturally, Hanks ends up dead.

My point is this: In Week 16 of the season, the Colts were undefeated and leading the Jets 15-10 midway through the third quarter. A win not only takes them to 15-0, one step from football immortality, it knocks the then 7-7 Jets out of the playoffs. Instead, Peyton is pulled, a scrub named Curtis Painter is inserted in his place and the Jets win 29-15. New York wins its next two, makes the playoffs, beats up Cincy and embarrasses the Chargers. Now the Jets are lining up for another showdown with the Colts. Will they be the German who should have been wiped out only to come back and kill the biggest star on the planet? Will they be the sentimental Gwyneth Paltrow movie that gets some momentum but, when history looks back, wasn't quite as good as the epic it beat for the big prize?

Who knows? But if the Jets do beat the Colts, all of Indy is going to wonder why their team didn't finish the Jets when it could.

Anyway, there are plenty of wise guys who think that, if the Jets don't at least win outright, they will keep it close. For some perspective on the conference title games, I asked Kenny White, boss linemaker at Las Vegas Sports Consultants, and handicapper Ted Sevransky (aka Teddy Covers) to tell me how the lines were made and why they're moving.

Matchup: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
Line Moves: Opened at Colts minus-7, currently Colts minus-7.5
What that means: An initial move by the sharps on the Colts, but steady money on the Jets has kept it from getting too high.

White says: "We sent out seven and it was a very difficult game to make a line for. Three of the guys I work with had it seven. I had it at 8.5. I would have made it 10 before the Jets beat up San Diego. Their defense looked so strong. The Jets have shown confidence and they can play defense and run the ball. But it's home field for the Colts and it's Peyton Manning, so that's why it was adjusted down. We decided we would put out the seven and let the bettors decide which way it should go."

Sevransky says: "This has been the one wise guy move, which was the initial line movement on the Colts, with wise guys thinking the game would get higher as the weekend neared and buy back some Jets. But so far it's been good two-way action. There are a couple places at Colts minus-8 but think it will close around seven. The biggest opinion right now is on the total for the under. There is a fair amount of disrespect for the Colts on both sides of football. Statistically the Indy D has been mediocre at best. Its best weapon is actually Peyton Manning, who limits the other team's snaps. Last week, Baltimore had just 55. But Indy can't hold leads in the fourth quarter because it doesn't run very well. And the Jets are the best defense they will have faced all year."

Matchup: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Line moves: Opened at Saints minus-3.5, bounced up to 4, now down to 3.5
What that means: Sharps are divided on this game, playing both sides of a very tight line.

White says: "I made the game three and we had two guys in the office at 3.5 and another at four. We sent out 3.5, largely based on home-field advantage. I was more impressed with the Minnesota defense and how they played. And the old adage is if you can take a team with the better defense plus the points, you play that. You will probably see it close at minus-4."

Sevransky says: "Saints minus-3.5 is still the prevailing number, but one of the leading books is down to minus-3. I don't know that it will stay there but I think it will kick off at 3.5. The wise guys who wouldn't lay the 3.5 would probably be willing to lay the three. There has been some significant wise guy support on the Vikings. But I like the Saints large; it's my big ticket game. I think New Orleans was the better running team the second half of the season and its defense is underrated, especially after Minnesota's performance last week. The Vikes didn't have to play against the Cowboys' best players on the offensive line. Flozell Adams was out and Marc Colombo was playing on one leg. Meanwhile, their D got beat up on the road pretty good this season. The Saints are a big-play D that protected a lot of big leads, which is why their stats won't overwhelm you."

Calvin: "I wish I was a Tiger."
Hobbes: "Common lament."

Boutte

The fact that the jets are in it only because the Colts let them win at the end of the season is going to make for some very interesting discussions if they beat the Colts tomorrow.