1. Head-to-head
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.


We've lost to Cards and Browns, they beat both teams. We beat Pitt, who they lost to. So we lose the Common Games tiebreaker 2-1.

But, if they lose to Seattle that means the Common Games tiebreaker is 2-2 since we beat Seattle. It then goes to Conference Games, which we win.

That implies Saints and Falcons finishing with the same record so lets run that through to its conclusion
Week 15 SEA Beats Falcons. Falcons 11 -3
Saints beat Ravens Saints 11-3

Falcons play Saints Week 16 one team is 12-3 one team is 11-4
If Saints win Week 16 they have to lose to Tampa and Carolina loses to Atlanta for both to finish 12-4
Falcons own that tiebreaker and win the division

or Saints beat Ravens, lose to Falcons and beat Bucs finish 12-4
Falcons lose to Seattle beat Saints and lose to Carolina finish 12-4
Falcons own head to head.

or

Week 15 SEA Beats Falcons. Falcons 11 -3
Saints lose to Ravens Ravens Saints 10-4

Falcons play Saints Week 16 Saints win Both teams 11-4
Both teams win week 17 and finish 12-4
Atlanta owns the common games tiebreaker because they beat the Ravens

or Both Lose week 17 and finish 11-5
Atlanta owns the tiebreakers.


The Saints have to finish with a better record than the Falcons to win the division in all scenarios.

Its pretty simple. Three games left. Saints have to win them all and Falcons have to lose 2 of 3 for the Saints to win the division.