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-   -   Ryan better than Brees? WTF? (https://blackandgold.com/saints/31446-ryan-better-than-brees-wtf.html)

saintsfan601 12-26-2010 03:50 PM

Ryan better than Brees? WTF?
 
ESPN.COM has this insider articel that you have to pay to see.So I can't read it.But the headline says that Matt Ryan is better then Drew Brees.WTF?!?!

jnormand 12-26-2010 06:22 PM

Ha ha. Ryan will get his ass kicked. Drew will prove them wrong tomorrow!!!!!

Halo 12-26-2010 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saintsfan601 (Post 273125)
ESPN.COM has this insider articel that you have to pay to see.So I can't read it.But the headline says that Matt Ryan is better then Drew Brees.WTF?!?!


I saw this. Here's my thoery... THEY'LL WRITE ANYTHING TO GET RATINGS AND ATTENTION!

The lead in sounds like "Matt Ryan is on NO ONE's list of top QB's"... Am I mistaken or have they been talking about Matt Ryan all season long????

saintfan 12-26-2010 06:41 PM

Yasinkas or whatever his name is -- the NFC South Blogger -- has been pushing this for weeks now. I cannot imagine a sane and knowledgable person trying to insinuate Ryan is better than Brees, all homerism aside.

This is just the media trying to stir **** if you ask me.

QBREES9 12-26-2010 07:08 PM

ESPN Morons

pakowitz 12-26-2010 07:14 PM

here is the garbage u wanted to read....


Matt Ryan has surpassed Drew Brees
Best QB in the NFC South? Look to Atlanta, as Brees' decision-making has waned

By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider

As high a profile as quarterbacks command in the NFL, it is a still a position where very good players can end up overlooked.

History affords multiple examples of this. Ken Anderson, Cincinnati's superb quarterback from the 1970s and '80s, placed eighth in the league in passer rating in 1973 and led the league in that category in 1974. Neither of those were enough to get him Pro Bowl recognition. He didn't achieve that status until he repeated his league leading status in passer rating in 1975.

Dan Fouts went through much of the same when he was overlooked for Pro Bowl status in 1978 despite placing in the top five in the league in passer rating, touchdowns, completion percentage and yards per pass attempt. It wasn't until he became only the second quarterback in league history to throw for more than 4,000 yards in a season in 1979 that he finally started receiving the recognition he deserved as one of pro football's elite passers.

The NFL has a similar situation today in the case of Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. Despite his team being en route (potentially) to the No. 1 seed in the NFC, he would probably have trouble making the top-10 quarterbacks list of many, if not most, fans and media types. In fact, the vast majority of pundits might not even place him as the top quarterback in his division. The perception is that Drew Brees has that honor locked down.

At first glance it looks to be an accurate viewpoint, but after taking a closer look at the game tape and metrics for Ryan and Brees, it is clear there is a strong case to be made for considering Ryan the best NFC South quarterback of 2010.

Let's break this down by category. We'll start with passing productivity by route depth.


On short passes (aerials thrown up to 10 yards downfield), Brees has tallied a 5.8 yards per attempt (YPA) total this season versus Ryan's 5.6 mark. Brees gets a slight edge on this one. (Note: For all route depth comparisons, penalties such as pass interference, defensive holding, illegal contact, etc., are all included in the metrics.)

For medium passes (balls thrown 11-19 yards), Brees and Ryan both have posted 9.6 YPA totals in 2010.

Brees does have a significant edge on deep (20-29 yards) and bomb (30 or more yards) throws. His 14.9 YPA mark on deeps and 20.3 YPA mark on bombs easily top Ryan's 8.4 YPA on deeps and 14.5 YPA on bombs.

That final category gives Brees an edge in overall YPA as well, as his 7.3 mark is nearly one yard better than Ryan's 6.5 total.

Brees will have an error about once per game -- and Ryan one in every two games.
The YPA totals show Brees has been more productive in one sense, but he gives up a lot of that lead because of his much higher interception rate. Brees (19) has 10 more picks than Ryan.

Many football statisticians say that the yardage cost of an interception is somewhere in the range of 40-50 yards. Including penalties, my charts have Brees as having gained exactly 4,200 yards in the air this year on 578 throws. Take away 400 yards (the 10 additional interceptions Brees has thrown, multiplied by the 40-yard penalty) and it would drop his YPA to 6.5. Take away 500 yards and it drops to 6.4. In either event, his YPA would then be identical to or slightly below Ryan's.

The biggest potential caveat to this? Interceptions are not always the fault of the quarterback. A tipped or dropped pass can also lead to picks that can make a field general's statistics look worse than they should.

The issue in applying that train of thought here is that it doesn't work in Brees' case. By my count, seven of Brees' picks have been the direct result of a bad decision on his part. That accounts for 41 percent of his interceptions. Ryan, on the other hand, has had four of his passes picked off due to bad decisions. That accounts for 44 percent of his picks, so they are essentially even here. (Note: A bad decision is defined as when a quarterback makes a mistake with a pass that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover such as a dropped interception. Common instances of this include locking in on receivers and forcing passes into coverage.)

Where they aren't even is in overall bad decision percentage. Brees has made 17 of these this season for a 2.9 percent bad decision rate; by contrast, Ryan has made only seven bad decisions and has a 1.3 percent bad decision rate. At these rates, Brees is making a mistake with the ball once every 33 passes versus Ryan's rate of once every 77 passes.

In other words, Brees will have an error about once per game -- and Ryan one in every two games. That extra risk-taking isn't paying off with enough additional productivity to offset the damage it causes, and it makes Ryan's passing game more valuable heading into the postseason, where one additional mistake can cost a team its season.


KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."

c4jun 12-26-2010 07:18 PM

If you put Matt Ryan on the Saints we wouldn't be ****!! Matt needs a running game to be a QB. Put Brees on a team with a running game. He's unstoppable!!! Plus Brees can win games without a running game!!

Pete 12-26-2010 07:23 PM

Tipped passes accounted for the bulk of Drews picks this yr!

Danno 12-26-2010 07:36 PM

So he's basing these metrics on a season where we lost our top 3 RB's for a majority of games forcing us to pick up 2 scrubs off the street and throw an UDFA rookie with fumbling issues into the starting line-up.

And on the other side, Atlanta is built to run run run then play action. Ryan is rarely forced to win games by himself. Brees has had to carry the team on his shoulders in almost every game this season.

Teams sit back and play safe to limit Brees' success. Every team that plays the Falcons tries to stack the line and stop Turner and Snelling.

His stats are woefully flawed.

breesfan27 12-26-2010 07:37 PM

Anyone who seriously thinks Matt Ryan is a better QB than Drew Brees needs to get off the crack pipe.

hitta 12-26-2010 07:58 PM

The majority of interceptions that Brees has thrown have been on long passes that were on third down. They've worked out as an equivalent of a punt. The INT column is just a number. I've love to see the average yardage change on Brees interceptions. I bet hes averaging close to a a punter.

The interceptions aside, Matt Ryan hasn't proved anything yet.

GeauxForMore 12-26-2010 08:01 PM

That statement belongs on "World's Dumbest"

pherein 12-26-2010 08:09 PM

Evans conferred in the boston globe Friday that Brees suffered a severe MCL injury early in the season. He was quoted as saying it is the reason for many of the interceptions because Brees was throwing on one leg. Apparently he has been battling threw it without telling anyone.


For up-and-down Saints, a super finish still possible - The Boston Globe


Saints fullback Heath Evans has told The Boston Globe that quarterback Drew Brees might have coped with a more serious injury than he or the franchise let on earlier this year.
In a story scheduled to be published Sunday, Evans said Brees gutted through an injury that would have sidelined a lesser player.
"Everyone knew he had some type of injury going on, but it was probably an MCL injury that no one else would have dared to play with and he didn't miss a beat," Evans is quoted as saying. "He was out there warring through for his teammates the betterment of our team. Lord knows we're nowhere near as good without (No.) 9 suited up for us. So I think the majority of some of those interceptions came during that span when he was really fighting through injuries that a lesser man would have shut it down and said, 'Forget the team, I'm worried about me and I don't want to get myself hurt worse.' He said, 'No, I'm not going to miss a practice snap much less a game snap.' I thought that those interceptions, at least some of them, came from throwing off one leg for six weeks."

example of how bad this can be:
Troy Polamalu sprained his MCL in the season opener, missing three games

Beastmode 12-26-2010 08:10 PM

"That extra risk-taking isn't paying off with enough additional productivity to offset the damage it causes, and it makes Ryan's passing game more valuable heading into the postseason, where one additional mistake can cost a team its season".

Brees has been to 1 NFC title match, won a SB, and on pace to repeat with the Saints. His risk taking is a problem alright, for OTHER TEAMS.

Rusty 12-26-2010 08:19 PM

does Matt hace a ring for his team Drew Bress does DUH!!!!!!!! Remeber the one lost at home was against us when we went 13-0 last season:doh::doh::doh::doh::doh::doh::doh:

saintfan 12-26-2010 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danno (Post 273171)
So he's basing these metrics on a season where we lost our top 3 RB's for a majority of games forcing us to pick up 2 scrubs off the street and throw an UDFA rookie with fumbling issues into the starting line-up.

And on the other side, Atlanta is built to run run run then play action. Ryan is rarely forced to win games by himself. Brees has had to carry the team on his shoulders in almost every game this season.

Teams sit back and play safe to limit Brees' success. Every team that plays the Falcons tries to stack the line and stop Turner and Snelling.

His stats are woefully flawed.

So simple like the boogaloo it plum evades 'em.

jnormand 12-26-2010 10:53 PM

If Drew played with an mcl injury early in the season.......what a badass SOB!!!! The heart of a true warrior. I hope Drew lights them up on MNF for everyone to see!!!

TheOak 12-27-2010 07:17 AM

The title is designed to be a "Membership drive", since that is in a paid area.

On Drews interceptions. There are the tip-balls that "should" negate a large % of them. There is also the area that "hitta" touched on. The "pass/punt", I believe these are done intentionally. No he does not throw an interception intentionally, but they are low % plays, long bombs/hail mary's.... Essentially, we are 3rd and very long, on our side of the field, with one of three out comes.

Pass Completed: First down, we are on the other side of the field, possibly TD after caught. (a win)

Pass Incompleted: We punt. (Nothing hurt)

Pass Intercepted: This is actually not a bad outcome. Brees throws a 50 yarder, it is intercepted on their 30 and the D-Back is tackled there (usually). Most of our team is back on our 40ish, rarely a pick-6 opportunity. This removes the potential for a bad punt, punt returned for 6...... (not a bad outcome)

Pass Interference: This has been done to us, and a few teams use it... Atlanta loves to use it... Chunck the Hail Mary and try to get the D-Back to get called for PI. (nothing to loose)


It makes Brees stats look like crap but I like it. It is actually a safer choice.I am trying to find out how many of his Ints were on 3rd down.

Breaking his Int's down by quarter is interesting. And sheds some light on the situations where he throws them.

1st Quarter: 2
2nd Quarter: 8
3rd Quarter: 2
4th Quarter: 7

saintsfan1976 12-27-2010 08:27 AM

NFL Stats: by Player Category


Suck it Trebeck

TheOak 12-27-2010 08:30 AM

Found it!

Brees Interceptions by Down:

1st Down 9
2nd Down 8
3rd Down 14
4th Down 0

Interceptions by Yardline

OPP 19-1 4
OPP 49-20 4

Own 1-20 8
Own 21-50 3

SaintsBro 12-27-2010 11:50 AM

The article's premise is basically, "Drew has better numbers in almost every category than Ryan, but he throws more interceptions and makes more mistakes per game. So let's arbitrarily use that as a reason to change Drew's numbers around, subtracting stuff from Drew's totals, in order to make Ryan's numbers magically appear better than Drew's, after we subtract a bunch of yardage from Drew."

In some categories and percentages, the two QB's are close this year. In other categories, they are not even remotely similar numbers. Long 30+ yard touchdown passes being one of them, and I'll take that number over Ryan's high percentages on 5 yard dink and dunks, which are absolutely the same as Drew's. Who is "better," who would you rather have on your team -- the guy who can throw 5 yard dink and dunks consistently all day long, or the guy who can do that same thing, AND throw a bomb or a quick strike for a lightning TD every now and then?

neugey 12-27-2010 12:24 PM

Ice is good, maybe a top 10 NFL QB, but has to rank below Brees and is definitely not top 5.

TheDeuce 12-27-2010 01:28 PM

This jackass, self-proclaimed "football scientist", arbitrarily picks two stats to make a case for labeling the reigning Super Bowl MVP as worse than another QB? Interesting. Ryan is a very good quarterback, but anybody who thinks he is better than Drew Brees is either trying to stir **** up, doesn't actually watch the NFL, or is high as a kite.

Danno 12-27-2010 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDeuce (Post 273347)
This jackass, self-proclaimed "football scientist", arbitrarily picks two stats to make a case for labeling the reigning Super Bowl MVP as worse than another QB? Interesting. Ryan is a very good quarterback, but anybody who thinks he is better than Drew Brees is either trying to stir **** up, doesn't actually watch the NFL, or is high as a kite.

True, using his "one stat" conclusions I can probably state a case for Chad Henne being a better QB than Tom Brady.

saintfan 12-27-2010 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by neugey (Post 273327)
Ice is good, maybe a top 10 NFL QB, but has to rank below Brees and is definitely not top 5.

I mean, he doesn't suck, but to call him top 10...

Manning
Brady
Brees
Rivers
Rogers
Rothlesburger

Without looking these are the names that come up immediately for me. These are the guys who can win a game for you almost by themselves. I'm going to add Vick too, because, while he's not a great QB, he is much better than his pre-prison days and is certainly dynamic...

Vick

So now who? I've got 7. The other Manning? Cutler? Shaub? Freeman even? Maybe? Where do the bus drivers like Matt Ryan land in the list? And let's be real. He's a bus driver at this point in his career...albeit a decent one...but still. Without Turner-the-human-bowling-ball running back, where the hell is Matt Ryan?

I gotta tell ya. I'd take Josh Freeman LONG before I'd take Matt Ryan. Now that's just me...

TheDeuce 12-27-2010 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danno (Post 273357)
True, using his "one stat" conclusions I can probably state a case for Chad Henne being a better QB than Tom Brady.

False, according to ESPN, nobody has ever or will ever be as good as "Tom Terrific" at anything.

Danno 12-27-2010 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saintfan (Post 273360)
I gotta tell ya. I'd take Josh Freeman LONG before I'd take Matt Ryan. Now that's just me...

He is gonna give us serious trouble for the next 10 years. That kids gonna be a star.

Rugby Saint II 12-27-2010 02:39 PM

The most important aspect of the article is that Drew is dramatically better at throwing the deep ball. Heck, even I can throw dink and dunk passes........but that doesn't make me better than Drew. What a bunch of morons!

QBREES9 12-27-2010 03:42 PM

Do the Sports writer smoke weed at ESPN ?

saintsfan601 12-28-2010 12:37 AM

I want to thank Pakowitz for posting the article.It was good for a laugh anyway.I'll throw some rep your way.

Beastmode 12-28-2010 12:45 AM

Check the tape. Brees don't blink.

CashAndFlash 12-28-2010 03:56 AM

Matty-ogre!
At best...

Choupique 12-28-2010 07:31 AM

Matty Douche is more like it.

Put that on ice, Atlanta.

I must admit there is something that Matty Douche is better at than Brees.

Collecting dingleberries.

QBREES9 12-28-2010 08:06 AM

Drew Brees Vs Matt Ryan = Drew Brees winner

saintsfan1976 12-28-2010 08:21 AM

15 completions last night Matt Ryan? Really??

Let's change your nickname to Matty "Game-Manager"

niteadept 12-28-2010 10:36 AM

To quote Mrs. Brees
Drew Brees>>>>>>>>>>>>>Matty WHO?

lumm0x 12-28-2010 10:50 AM

Ryan is a good young QB. He's borderline top 10 right now and not top 5 yet. He could get there. Or he could continue to be a 17-30 200 yard passer game in and out. He rarely has a huge game. He doesn't go out and flat out abuse any defense...ever. He is the beneficiary of a very solid run game and o-line who gets lots of pressure removed with their balance and protection. He's the kind of guy who will always give you a chance to win by being fairly effective and not taking risks.

Freeman scares me much more long term. This kid can just go get it himself. He doesn't need a run game. He doesn't need great protection. He can be elusive, prolong the play and just has killer instincts. Shove him into the Falcons run game and o-line and suddenly I am terrified. Freeman is Roethlisberger with better athleticism. When the surrounding talent catches up to him in his prime I will not like seeing Tampa twice a season.

CashAndFlash 12-28-2010 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lumm0x (Post 273963)
Ryan is a good young QB. He's borderline top 10 right now and not top 5 yet. He could get there. Or he could continue to be a 17-30 200 yard passer game in and out. He rarely has a huge game. He doesn't go out and flat out abuse any defense...ever. He is the beneficiary of a very solid run game and o-line who gets lots of pressure removed with their balance and protection. He's the kind of guy who will always give you a chance to win by being fairly effective and not taking risks.

Freeman scares me much more long term. This kid can just go get it himself. He doesn't need a run game. He doesn't need great protection. He can be elusive, prolong the play and just has killer instincts. Shove him into the Falcons run game and o-line and suddenly I am terrified. Freeman is Roethlisberger with better athleticism. When the surrounding talent catches up to him in his prime I will not like seeing Tampa twice a season.

I agree. He could easily be atop 5 qb a few years from now.

Sinner 12-28-2010 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by c4jun (Post 273161)
If you put Matt Ryan on the Saints we wouldn't be ****!! Matt needs a running game to be a QB. Put Brees on a team with a running game. He's unstoppable!!! Plus Brees can win games without a running game!!

What Mr. Brees did last night... after a few plays that would have sent many men running for their mamas, PROVES who the better QB is. If Matty is ice, Brees is the ICE SCULPTOR.

jnormand 12-28-2010 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Choupique (Post 273820)
Matty Douche is more like it.

Put that on ice, Atlanta.

I must admit there is something that Matty Douche is better at than Brees.

Collecting dingleberries.

LMFAO!!! Hilarious!


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