DonCanabis

WEEK 4 PICKS

CONGRATS TO THE 2010 DON’S PREDICTION LEAGUE CHAMPIONS

Like I said, week 3 is the most unpredictable of all every year with the highest amount of upsets every season. We had awesome matchups, we had cry baby call out the refs, we had others not owning up to their own mistakes and we saw what could have been the #1 highlight reel of 2011 get called back by a player not having his head on the game.

Quick Hits

• It’s funny how quick and unpredictable the NFL is. The only three undefeated teams in the NFL are Buffalo Green Bay and Detroit. Atlanta an early favorite is learning the hard way that you don’t trade your whole draft for 1 player - should have asked Ditka before pulling that trade. The dream appears to be over for the Eagles and his conspiracy theory QB. Isn’t it fun?
• I love when players come out of nowhere and completely take over 1 week, Torrey Smith the 2nd round pick out of Maryland had caught zero passes before week 3 and in just one game completely destroyed the Rams and made a huge contribution to his team. If Lee Evans doesn’t come back from injury soon he might not get his spot back
• I’m really impressed how 4 young teams are playing against adversity. The Lions didn’t look frustrated even after being behind 20-0; you always felt that they will find a way to come back. Oakland and Buffalo weren’t scared of the BIG teams they were playing and were back and forward the whole game and at the end when bad team’s fold they stood up, took the lead, and came away with the W. The other is the Browns: they might look bad at times but they have won back 2 back and that final drive by McCoy to take the lead against the Dolphins was perfect and poised.
• I had the worst week of my career straight up last week going 7-9, took way too many risks and none paid off. I still went 9-7 against the spread for the third week in a row, and the MNF game helped me win some money back so I only lost $20 this week. Over all for the season I’m at 58% and fell down a spot to 15th place in the league.
• There are two "The Goat of the Week" this week. The first: you have to be sick if you’re Corey Graham of the bears. I mean, his mistake wouldn’t have given the Bears the win - it might have given them at least a chance for a come back - but what it did do is cancelled one of the best special team trick plays probably ever!! It’s those once in a lifetime plays because you all know that all ST coaches will teach and tell their players to pay more attention during punts but having a holding call on a decoy play! It’s just stupid I mean who was he trying to block?
  The other is Dallas Cowboys Center, Phil Costa. I don’t care if the Redskins defenders were calling the snaps, you’re playing at home. If something wrong is happening, be a pro and adjust. 3 early snaps is just unacceptable and in such a close game it's unreal. The Cowboys were lucky Romo was the QB and he thinks fast on his feet. I don’t know how many QB’s would had saved that.

On to the games

Detroit at Dallas 1 Ovr/Und 46
I expect Dallas to be healthier this week against Detroit. It’s just crazy to believe they won last week with that team. Still, this will not only be the toughest front 7 they have had to face (which I don’t believe their banged up young oline can hold) but the first real good offense their defense has had to face all year so far. This game will be interesting, but with the injuries and how good Detroit is playing on both sides I don’t see the Cowboys winning this one. If you want to play it safe in this game take the Over on this one.

Straight: DET
Spread: DET
Ovr/Und: OVR


San Francisco at Philadelphia -8.5 Ovr/Und 44.5

The Eagles are finding it very hard to mask their flaws and that LB corps and Oline is costing those games and making his QB yell uncle!! I said it before the season I wasn’t high on the Eagles and I didn’t expect Vick to last injury free the whole season I just didn’t expect them to flunk so soon. San Francisco defense is playing good and even with Smith’s 2.7 yard average per completion came out with a win in a tough venue like Cincinnati, but playing back to back games on the road is going to be difficult. Take the Eagles even with the injuries, but this might be a little close.
Straight: PHI
Spread: SF
Ovr/Und: UND

Minnesota at Kansas City 1.5 Ovr/Und 40
If the Vikings could find a way to tell the NFL to only play the first half they would be 3-0. It’s just so weird how they have a complete meltdown when they come out of the locker room in the second half. Maybe Frazier should change his halftime speech. The Chiefs finally showed something last week trying to come back against the Chargers just to fall short when Matt Cassel pulled a... well, a Matt Cassel.
Straight: MIN
Spread: KC
Ovr/Und: UND

Washington at St. Louis 1.5 Ovr/Und 43.5
Rex Grossman looked like the Rex of old last week, making a key mistake with the game on the line when your defense holds the other team to FG’s you’re supposed to win. I expect Washington to play better this week. The Rams are hurt, even this being a "win it or ship it" week for the Rams, I can’t see them beating a good Washington defense.
Straight: Was
Spread: Was
Ovr/Und: UND

New Orleans at Jacksonville 7 Ovr/Und 45.5
The Saints came back last week and took the win against a tough Texans team. Blaine Gabbert’s debut didn’t go as smooth as planned. The Jaguars have a very good defense and it will be hard to cover the over against them. The Jaguars are 1-9 ATS in their last ten games. Take the Saints on this one.
Straight: NO
Spread: NO
Ovr/Und: OVR

Tennessee at Cleveland 1.5 Ovr/Und 39
It's starting to look like CJ is laughing all the way to the bank; these teams have two of the top defenses in the NFL. Cleveland has one of the worst run defenses in the league, so this could be the week we see CJ explode, especially after the Titans lost their #1 weapon in Britt. Cleveland is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games while Tennessee is 6-4 ATS. I expect a close game that is going to go all the way to the wire, but in a case like this I take the team with the better defense and more experienced QB. Cleveland is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games
Straight: TEN
Spread: TEN
Ovr/Und: OVR

Pittsburgh at Houston -4 Ovr/Und 45
Pittsburgh just doesn’t look like the team of last year. They needed their defense to come up big last week and win a game that they were trying their best to lose. Houston was meant to flop. They’re still young to play in that venue and take the win. Pittsburgh offensive line is hurt and slow and they’re facing a young fast defense. Arian Foster will be back this week, but we don’t know how effective they’ll be. The Steelers have been profitable as underdogs in the past going 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games take the Texans to win, but Pittsburgh to cover the spread.
Straight:HOU
Spread:PIT
Ovr/Und:UND


Buffalo at Cincinnati 3 Ovr/Und 44
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Buffalo is coming from two back-to-back into the wire games and have come out on top. They’re showing that they are a team to reckon with. The problem is that after two hard matches and playing on the road against a very good defense I believe it will be that awful trap game that happens every week. If the offense in Cincinnati can at least not make mistakes the Bengals should take this one.
Straight: CIN
Spread: CIN
Ovr/Und: UND

Carolina at Chicago -6.5 Ovr/Und 43
If Mike Martz ever learns how to use a halfback in his scheme, he might have something. The Bears Oline is still awful and is getting Cutler killed. It’s funny the game Cam Newton doesn’t even pass for 200 yards is the game they win. I believe the Bears didn’t read the "Buyers Beware" label when they brought all those left in the curve Cowboys. I haven’t seen anyone give up on routs and give the least amount on effort in a game like Roy Williams, wow that was an annoying performance by him last week. Take the home team in a close match.
Straight: CHI
Spread: CAR
Ovr/Und: OVR

Atlanta at Seattle -4.5 Ovr/Und 39
It’s weird to believe teams are in "must win" mode after only 3 weeks, but if a team just can’t afford another loss if they have any plans at the playoffs, it would be the Falcons. Playing in Seattle is tough and it’s very weird how that team is being run. There’s supposed to be a master plan behind all that madness, but it looks like only Pete Carroll knows it. Take Atlanta in the must win mode.
Straight: ATL
Spread: ATL
Ovr/Und: OVR

New York Giants at Arizona 1.5 Ovr/Und 44.5
This is the game that’s giving me more headaches. I really don’t like how either team has played. Even at 2-1, the Giants haven’t looked good besides their front 7. We have seen that apparently Arizona - even with a new QB - can’t win on the road. I’ve gone back and forward with this game because it’s hard for me to believe that the Giants can win 3 in a row playing like they have and the Cardinals losing 3 in a row. I think the heat is going to be a factor on this one so take the home team.
Straight: ARI
Spread: ARI
Ovr/Und: OVR

Denver at Green Bay -12.5 Ovr/Und 46.5
I feel the line is too big on this one. Yeah Denver is on the road with a 1-2 record against the Super Bowl Champions and a 3-0 record, but Denver has played three straight close games. Rodgers has looked really good, but their defense hasn’t been solid at all, allowing an average of 24.6 points per game. Take The Packers to win at home but not to cover and the over on this one.
Straight: GB
Spread: DEN
Ovr/Und: OVR

Miami at San Diego : -7 Ovr/Und 45
This could definitely be a trap game. San Diego hasn’t looked good the past 3 weeks and Miami is in desperation mode. The Dolphins haven’t played awful, they just have let the games get away from them. Take the Charges at home but not to cover on this one and take the under.
Straight: SD
Spread: MIA
Ovr/Und: UND

New England at Oakland : 4.5 Ovr/Und 55
It’s never good to be playing the Patriots after a loss. The Patriots defense is awful and we all knew that the Buffalo game could have been a trap game just because of how the Patriots were playing. Oakland has looked really good under Jackson and their only loss came against the same team in a similar way that the Patriots lost to. McFadden has been the biggest surprise carrying on from last year and showing that when healthy he’s worth the high pick it took the Raiders to get him. The bad news is that he got hurt last week. He will play, but I remember the banged up McFadden and it isn’t good. Take the Patriots and the under on this one. The Patriots are good for 35 points per game but I don’t know if Oakland would be able to contribute the other 21 points needed to cover with their best weapon not 100%.
Straight: NE
Spread: NE
Ovr/Und: UND


New York Jets at Baltimore : -3.5 Ovr/Und 41.5
We all know there’s animosity between these two teams. Rex has three teams he always wants to beat the Patriots (because well not only they’re in the division but usually is the team to beat), any team coached by his twin brother Rob (just to prove who is the top dog between them), and the Ravens because he truly believes that he deserved that head coaching job and wants to make them pay for passing up on him. This will be a hard-fought match of clash between defenses. The Ravens have been outstanding against the run so far this season, so expect them to make the Jets one-dimensional and take the win at home in a low scoring match.
Straight: BAL
Spread: BAL
Ovr/Und: UND

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay : -10 Ovr/Und 41
Tampa Bay played a hard match last week against the Falcons the type of matches they liked and won last year. I knew it would take some time for Collins and the Colts to get in a rhythm after, well, just picking him up from the streets. Tampa Bay wins, but they usually win ugly and the Colts are playing better. Take the home team but not the points.

Straight: TB
Spread: IND
Ovr/Und: UND



The Hot Picks
Record 11-7 63% 3-2 in Upset picks
Washington (league)
New Orleans(league)
New England (league)
Denver
Tennessee
Pittsburgh

Don’s Prediction League Leaders

1. BrrsColts 95-49 66% [coltfreaks.com]
2. Haynie 92 -52 64% [cowboysboard.com]
3. BnGBleeder 92 -52 64% [steeleraddicts.com]
4. JohnJet 91 -53 63% [forums.newyorkjets.com]

15.- TheDon 84-60 58%

papz

I like Cincy as well... I also think St. Louis wins over Washington this week. Spags is going to put a lot of pressure on Rexy this week and I think he folds under pressure.

iceshack149

I think that we'll see a lot of RB Ingram in this one. I have no basis for this theory but it just seems like the type of game that SP would start to play the rookie and see how he does.
And of course Jacksonville will ride MJD. All that running keeps the score relatively low by Saints standards. I'll take the under.

AlaskaSaints

7 ? Yet Green Bay spots 12.5 ?

Aint buying it.

But thanks for sharing.

Alaska

DonCanabis

sorry didn't understand it

homerj07

I am hoping Colston does NOT Have to play.
Having Harper back & Tom Johnson in should help our "D" a lot!

I still say under though. Weather wll not be a factor - high of 75 & relatively low humidity (for Florida - 50%)

DonCanabis

If it's not the weather why do you believe it would be Under?. If you say Jacksonville won't score much. The jaguars have a real good running game and will be able to move the ball and your defense takes risk and allow teams to score, So I expect 14 points from the Jaguars.

What your defense also does is take risk and against a rookie QB playing his second game as a starter you know that some of those risk pay of and will leave your offense in great position to move the scoreboard up. The factor that I took more into account is the philosophy of your team even with a big lead they don't stop trying to score like other teams.

If you believe the weather won't be a factor like I did, I took the other points as to why would be Over.

GL today