Saints 4 pt favorites

ScottF · 12-07-2011, 01:28 PM

one man's take:

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (9-3, 3-3 road) at TENNESSEE TITANS (7-5, 4-2 home) Time: 1:00pm ET
Opening line: New Orleans -4.5
Current line: New Orleans -3.5
Current betting trends: 93% of the public is currently backing the Saints.

Analysis: Uh-oh. It looks like we have another potential trap game on our hands as the red-hot Saints travel to Tennessee to take on a Titans team that is still very much alive in the AFC playoff hunt.

93% of the early action has come in on the Saints, which means that oddsmakers should be moving the line up—but they aren’t. In fact, the spread for this game has actually moved one point towards the Titans, once again indicating that some big cheese has been placed on Tennessee.

Will a suddenly reborn Chris Johnson pave the way for a Tennessee upset? New Orleans has covered the line in four straight contests, but is just 2-4 ATS on the road this season. I’m sure you all remember their two big letdowns at Tampa Bay and St. Louis.

Meanwhile, the Titans have quietly covered in four straight games and are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Interesting trends: New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite, while the Titans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog.

The pick: Screw the trends. I’ll ride with the red-hot Saints (-3.5).

12-07-2011, 01:28 PM	#11
ScottF 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Atlanta Posts: 6,324	one man's take: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (9-3, 3-3 road) at TENNESSEE TITANS (7-5, 4-2 home) Time: 1:00pm ET Opening line: New Orleans -4.5 Current line: New Orleans -3.5 Current betting trends: 93% of the public is currently backing the Saints. Analysis: Uh-oh. It looks like we have another potential trap game on our hands as the red-hot Saints travel to Tennessee to take on a Titans team that is still very much alive in the AFC playoff hunt. 93% of the early action has come in on the Saints, which means that oddsmakers should be moving the line up—but they aren’t. In fact, the spread for this game has actually moved one point towards the Titans, once again indicating that some big cheese has been placed on Tennessee. Will a suddenly reborn Chris Johnson pave the way for a Tennessee upset? New Orleans has covered the line in four straight contests, but is just 2-4 ATS on the road this season. I’m sure you all remember their two big letdowns at Tampa Bay and St. Louis. Meanwhile, the Titans have quietly covered in four straight games and are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0. Interesting trends: New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite, while the Titans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog. The pick: Screw the trends. I’ll ride with the red-hot Saints (-3.5).