If you love statistics, here's a great analysis/predition

xan · 01-06-2012, 06:51 PM

Our first NFC wild card game is a repeat from Week 13, when the Saints beat Detroit 31-17. The Saints got off to a 24-7 start, then withstood a small Detroit comeback in the third quarter. Remarkably, the Lions actually outgained the Saints in net yardage, 466 to 438. However, the Lions had fewer yards per play (6.8 vs. 7.2 for New Orleans), the game's only turnover, and a lot of penalties: 11 flags for 107 yards.
WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL

It's no secret that the passing game is now a bigger part of the NFL than ever before, and Detroit epitomizes this. Detroit ran the ball on a league-low 33 percent of plays, despite the fact that they won 10 games and thus had some time running out the clock. And no team uses shotgun more than Detroit, which went shotgun on 68 percent of plays this year. The Saints had a poor defense this year, and it was even worse when opposing quarterbacks were in shotgun. The Saints had 4.0% DVOA (19th) against quarterbacks under center, but 31.0% DVOA (29th) against quarterbacks in shotgun.
The Saints ranked 17th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers, which is a little bit better than their overall pass defense but not really something that gives you confidence in their ability to cover Calvin Johnson. Johnson had just 69 yards with no touchdowns in the first Saints-Lions game, and it's hard not to argue that this was the best-case scenario for the Saints. He should do better in their second meeting.

to read MUCH more, as well as their prediction:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | NFC Wild Card Preview

What I find really interesting is that they stripped away any emotional perception of performance and are laser sharp on weaknesses. AND MAN, there are plenty.

WOO BABY, strap in, it's going to be a bumpy ride...

pherein · 01-06-2012, 06:56 PM

dear god their offense is playing Pong!

SloMotion · 01-06-2012, 07:19 PM

Originally Posted by pherein

dear god their offense is playing Pong!

ROTFLMAO . . . oh man, that is too funny . . . I had one of those Atari game systems back in the day . . . hey, what's a dome nut? Somebody told me I should bring some dome nuts Saturday and I wasn't sure if I should be offended, hungry or looking for a lug wrench.

go Lions.

SloMotion · 01-06-2012, 07:28 PM

Originally Posted by xan

to read MUCH more, as well as their prediction:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | NFC Wild Card Preview

What I find really interesting is that they stripped away any emotional perception of performance and are laser sharp on weaknesses. AND MAN, there are plenty.

WOO BABY, strap in, it's going to be a bumpy ride...

WOW! You weren't kidding . . . that has got to be the most surgical, precise, analytical review of this matchup around . . . stand back, I'm going back in . . .

go Lions.

pherein · 01-06-2012, 08:20 PM

Originally Posted by SloMotion

ROTFLMAO . . . oh man, that is too funny . . . I had one of those Atari game systems back in the day . . . hey, what's a dome nut? Somebody told me I should bring some dome nuts Saturday and I wasn't sure if I should be offended, hungry or looking for a lug wrench.

go Lions.

lol, nah its a play off "Time to make the donuts"Duncan donuts

Nah, youll have a great time we're good people. You beat us it will be fair and square. You won't won't find many saints fans being that bad about it. WE lose we lose, we don't make excuses.

SloMotion · 01-07-2012, 05:55 AM

Originally Posted by pherein

lol, nah its a play off "Time to make the donuts"Duncan donuts
Nah, youll have a great time we're good people. You beat us it will be fair and square. You won't won't find many saints fans being that bad about it. WE lose we lose, we don't make excuses.

Yyyyyeeeeepppp, I feel it 100%, you are all my kind of people on here and I've been more welcomed, had more fun and seen more good football talk on this board then any other board . . . you have a heckuva site here, I could watch a game in realtime with you people . . . we all know the Lions have a slim chance to none at winning this game, but you guys don't try to rain on my parade and let me enjoy the moment . . . well, until game time I suppose, hehe. It's sportsmanship. I won't forget this week, it was the next best thing to being there.

go Lions.

Tobias-Reiper · 01-07-2012, 10:10 AM

What's Stafford's ERA? Oh, wait...

SloMotion · 01-07-2012, 12:56 PM

Originally Posted by Tobias-Reiper

What's Stafford's ERA? Oh, wait...

Don't know, but we got Justin Verlander, 2011 AL MVP and 2011 Cy Young Award winner . . . not too many pitchers have won both those awards in the same year . . .

go Lions.

01-06-2012, 06:51 PM	#1
xan Professor Crab and Site Donor 2014 Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Princeton Posts: 3,369 Blog Entries: 34	If you love statistics, here's a great analysis/predition Our first NFC wild card game is a repeat from Week 13, when the Saints beat Detroit 31-17. The Saints got off to a 24-7 start, then withstood a small Detroit comeback in the third quarter. Remarkably, the Lions actually outgained the Saints in net yardage, 466 to 438. However, the Lions had fewer yards per play (6.8 vs. 7.2 for New Orleans), the game's only turnover, and a lot of penalties: 11 flags for 107 yards. WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL It's no secret that the passing game is now a bigger part of the NFL than ever before, and Detroit epitomizes this. Detroit ran the ball on a league-low 33 percent of plays, despite the fact that they won 10 games and thus had some time running out the clock. And no team uses shotgun more than Detroit, which went shotgun on 68 percent of plays this year. The Saints had a poor defense this year, and it was even worse when opposing quarterbacks were in shotgun. The Saints had 4.0% DVOA (19th) against quarterbacks under center, but 31.0% DVOA (29th) against quarterbacks in shotgun. The Saints ranked 17th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers, which is a little bit better than their overall pass defense but not really something that gives you confidence in their ability to cover Calvin Johnson. Johnson had just 69 yards with no touchdowns in the first Saints-Lions game, and it's hard not to argue that this was the best-case scenario for the Saints. He should do better in their second meeting. to read MUCH more, as well as their prediction: FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis \| NFC Wild Card Preview What I find really interesting is that they stripped away any emotional perception of performance and are laser sharp on weaknesses. AND MAN, there are plenty. WOO BABY, strap in, it's going to be a bumpy ride... SloMotion likes this.

01-06-2012, 06:56 PM	#2
pherein failclownHunter Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: N.O. and V.A. Posts: 2,260 Blog Entries: 3	dear god their offense is playing Pong! Rugby Saint II and SloMotion like this.

01-06-2012, 07:19 PM	#3
SloMotion 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 6,776 Blog Entries: 15	Originally Posted by pherein dear god their offense is playing Pong! ROTFLMAO . . . oh man, that is too funny . . . I had one of those Atari game systems back in the day . . . hey, what's a dome nut? Somebody told me I should bring some dome nuts Saturday and I wasn't sure if I should be offended, hungry or looking for a lug wrench. go Lions. pherein likes this.

01-06-2012, 07:28 PM	#4
SloMotion 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 6,776 Blog Entries: 15	Originally Posted by xan to read MUCH more, as well as their prediction: FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis \| NFC Wild Card Preview What I find really interesting is that they stripped away any emotional perception of performance and are laser sharp on weaknesses. AND MAN, there are plenty. WOO BABY, strap in, it's going to be a bumpy ride... WOW! You weren't kidding . . . that has got to be the most surgical, precise, analytical review of this matchup around . . . stand back, I'm going back in . . . go Lions.

01-06-2012, 08:20 PM	#5
pherein failclownHunter Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: N.O. and V.A. Posts: 2,260 Blog Entries: 3	Originally Posted by SloMotion ROTFLMAO . . . oh man, that is too funny . . . I had one of those Atari game systems back in the day . . . hey, what's a dome nut? Somebody told me I should bring some dome nuts Saturday and I wasn't sure if I should be offended, hungry or looking for a lug wrench. go Lions. lol, nah its a play off "Time to make the donuts"Duncan donuts Nah, youll have a great time we're good people. You beat us it will be fair and square. You won't won't find many saints fans being that bad about it. WE lose we lose, we don't make excuses.

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01-07-2012, 05:55 AM	#6
SloMotion 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 6,776 Blog Entries: 15	Originally Posted by pherein lol, nah its a play off "Time to make the donuts"Duncan donuts Nah, youll have a great time we're good people. You beat us it will be fair and square. You won't won't find many saints fans being that bad about it. WE lose we lose, we don't make excuses. Yyyyyeeeeepppp, I feel it 100%, you are all my kind of people on here and I've been more welcomed, had more fun and seen more good football talk on this board then any other board . . . you have a heckuva site here, I could watch a game in realtime with you people . . . we all know the Lions have a slim chance to none at winning this game, but you guys don't try to rain on my parade and let me enjoy the moment . . . well, until game time I suppose, hehe. It's sportsmanship. I won't forget this week, it was the next best thing to being there. go Lions.

01-07-2012, 10:10 AM	#7
Tobias-Reiper Merces Letifer Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 4,161	What's Stafford's ERA? Oh, wait...

01-07-2012, 12:56 PM	#8
SloMotion 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 6,776 Blog Entries: 15	Originally Posted by Tobias-Reiper What's Stafford's ERA? Oh, wait... Don't know, but we got Justin Verlander, 2011 AL MVP and 2011 Cy Young Award winner . . . not too many pitchers have won both those awards in the same year . . . go Lions.

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