Another look at some numbers

dam1953 · 01-10-2012, 04:07 PM

TR, first my apologies if you thought the veiled insult was meant for you. It wasn't. It was directed at Euphoria's earlier remark about numbers and baseball. Still can't figure that one out.

Regarding your comments, I agree for the most part. That said, Alex Smith's work product is pretty bad. No matter if you look at QB rating, yardage, TD's, picks, etc. Game to game numbers are usually of little value. Results against common opponents are a bit better, but not much. Conversely, season statistics including QB ratings do carry weight. The best teams in the NFL have the best QB's, be it Brees, Roger, Brady, or Manning (2x) who in turn put up the best numbers of the course of the season. Early in the season when the O-line was struggling Brees' numbers were good but not great. Since the O-line has gelled Bress' has been climbing and records have been falling.

A QB and team lives and dies with the O-line. Everyone tends to focus on QB's and star receivers but a good passing game boils down to protection. If an average QB has enough time average receivers will get open. Period. Conversely, poor protection can make a great QB look pretty bad. We need only look back to the Rams game. Brees is great because the Saints have the whole package. Great QB, great O-line, very good but not super star receivers, running backs who can catch and protect and play calling that puts it all together. This combination results in records and rings.

A similar issue holds with defenses. If you can pressure QBs the coverage doesn't have to be as tight and the picks go up. This year, most of SFs sacks came against weaker opponents with young or immobile QBs (aka Pittsburgh). This year I believe that the Saint's biggest weakness has been the inability to consistently pressure the QB. The corners and safeties have been taking a ton of crap for poor coverage but better pressure would help in solving that problem.

So, Saturday will probably be settled by our O-line vs. SF's D-line.

homerj07 · 01-10-2012, 07:06 PM

Hey I have an idea - screw the score!!

JUST WIN BABY!!

saintfan · 01-10-2012, 07:10 PM

AlaskaSaints · 01-10-2012, 07:30 PM

Originally Posted by dam1953

So, it looks more and more like SF’s 13-3 has to be chalked up to being lucky. Lucky that they play in the NFC West, the weakest division in the NFL. Lucky that their non-division games were mostly against weaker teams. Unfortunately, it looks like their luck is going to run out on Saturday.

This synopsis makes perfect sense to me. I don't understand how some don't get it.

Their QB's rating is shat, and yet they finished 13-3. I mean, how do you argue that? Have a look at the QB ratings of the other 13+ teams and it becomes obvious.

Friend request inbound, Blue Dog. You're okay in my book!!

Alaska

01-10-2012, 07:10 PM	#13
saintfan Donated Plasma Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: San Francisco, CA Posts: 18,556 Blog Entries: 5	Budsdrinker and pherein like this.

01-10-2012, 07:30 PM	#14
AlaskaSaints 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Anchorage, AK Posts: 2,484 Blog Entries: 2	Originally Posted by dam1953 So, it looks more and more like SF’s 13-3 has to be chalked up to being lucky. Lucky that they play in the NFC West, the weakest division in the NFL. Lucky that their non-division games were mostly against weaker teams. Unfortunately, it looks like their luck is going to run out on Saturday. This synopsis makes perfect sense to me. I don't understand how some don't get it. Their QB's rating is shat, and yet they finished 13-3. I mean, how do you argue that? Have a look at the QB ratings of the other 13+ teams and it becomes obvious. Friend request inbound, Blue Dog. You're okay in my book!! Alaska

01-10-2012, 04:07 PM	#11
dam1953 1000 Posts + Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: SW Ohio Posts: 4,645	TR, first my apologies if you thought the veiled insult was meant for you. It wasn't. It was directed at Euphoria's earlier remark about numbers and baseball. Still can't figure that one out. Regarding your comments, I agree for the most part. That said, Alex Smith's work product is pretty bad. No matter if you look at QB rating, yardage, TD's, picks, etc. Game to game numbers are usually of little value. Results against common opponents are a bit better, but not much. Conversely, season statistics including QB ratings do carry weight. The best teams in the NFL have the best QB's, be it Brees, Roger, Brady, or Manning (2x) who in turn put up the best numbers of the course of the season. Early in the season when the O-line was struggling Brees' numbers were good but not great. Since the O-line has gelled Bress' has been climbing and records have been falling. A QB and team lives and dies with the O-line. Everyone tends to focus on QB's and star receivers but a good passing game boils down to protection. If an average QB has enough time average receivers will get open. Period. Conversely, poor protection can make a great QB look pretty bad. We need only look back to the Rams game. Brees is great because the Saints have the whole package. Great QB, great O-line, very good but not super star receivers, running backs who can catch and protect and play calling that puts it all together. This combination results in records and rings. A similar issue holds with defenses. If you can pressure QBs the coverage doesn't have to be as tight and the picks go up. This year, most of SFs sacks came against weaker opponents with young or immobile QBs (aka Pittsburgh). This year I believe that the Saint's biggest weakness has been the inability to consistently pressure the QB. The corners and safeties have been taking a ton of crap for poor coverage but better pressure would help in solving that problem. So, Saturday will probably be settled by our O-line vs. SF's D-line.

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01-10-2012, 07:06 PM	#12
homerj07 In Doh We Trust Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Central Florida Posts: 7,027 Blog Entries: 16	Hey I have an idea - screw the score!! JUST WIN BABY!!