The Disturbing Skinny on NO @ SF

xan · 01-14-2012, 10:30 AM

New Orleans at San Francisco

When this divisional round game was set after New Orleans defeated Detroit last Saturday, the first thought that crossed my mind was, "What does DVOA history say about playoff matchups between an elite offense and an elite defense?" I didn't think this happened all that often, but when I searched our database, I found a whopping 85 playoff games since 1992 with a top-eight offense going against a top-eight defense. In those games, the elite offense went 45-40. Of course, New Orleans will be on the road this Saturday, so what about that subset of games? The elite offense went 15-21 on the road. Now, better teams according to DVOA usually end up having a divisional round home game, so that record might just be a statistical artifact of home field advantage. So what about the subset of games where the elite offense is on the road but is actually the better team overall? In those 15 games, the elite offense went 8-7. All of this suggests that, in playoff matchups between immovable objects and irresistible forces, neither side has a historical advantage.

For more, click on this link:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | NFC Divisional Round Preview

Of special note:

Nevertheless, the Saints' pass defense is so bad that San Francisco can still be successful even if it's with a more conventional scheme. One thing we're likely to see based on the statistical matchups is a heavy dose of Kyle Williams and Ted Ginn. That's because the Saints rank 27th in pass defense against slot receivers, they rank 30th in passes to the short-left portion of the field, and right cornerback Tracy Porter is by far the Saints' worst cornerback (30 percent pass Success Rate) according to our numbers. Before his concussion in Week 16, Williams in particular had been coming on as a viable No. 2 receiving option from the slot, ending the season ranked eighth in DVOA among wide receivers with less than 50 targets. Therefore, he'll likely be the main beneficiary.

I will bet his performance this season is somewhat due to his lingering knee issues. Watch for a steady diet of Crabtree rotated to his side and Smith running either wr screens or double moves, either of which completely flummoxed Porter all season. Porter better man up today, or it will be a painful afternoon for all of us.

01-14-2012, 10:30 AM	#1
xan Professor Crab and Site Donor 2014 Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Princeton Posts: 3,372 Blog Entries: 34	The Disturbing Skinny on NO @ SF New Orleans at San Francisco When this divisional round game was set after New Orleans defeated Detroit last Saturday, the first thought that crossed my mind was, "What does DVOA history say about playoff matchups between an elite offense and an elite defense?" I didn't think this happened all that often, but when I searched our database, I found a whopping 85 playoff games since 1992 with a top-eight offense going against a top-eight defense. In those games, the elite offense went 45-40. Of course, New Orleans will be on the road this Saturday, so what about that subset of games? The elite offense went 15-21 on the road. Now, better teams according to DVOA usually end up having a divisional round home game, so that record might just be a statistical artifact of home field advantage. So what about the subset of games where the elite offense is on the road but is actually the better team overall? In those 15 games, the elite offense went 8-7. All of this suggests that, in playoff matchups between immovable objects and irresistible forces, neither side has a historical advantage. For more, click on this link: FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis \| NFC Divisional Round Preview Of special note: Nevertheless, the Saints' pass defense is so bad that San Francisco can still be successful even if it's with a more conventional scheme. One thing we're likely to see based on the statistical matchups is a heavy dose of Kyle Williams and Ted Ginn. That's because the Saints rank 27th in pass defense against slot receivers, they rank 30th in passes to the short-left portion of the field, and right cornerback Tracy Porter is by far the Saints' worst cornerback (30 percent pass Success Rate) according to our numbers. Before his concussion in Week 16, Williams in particular had been coming on as a viable No. 2 receiving option from the slot, ending the season ranked eighth in DVOA among wide receivers with less than 50 targets. Therefore, he'll likely be the main beneficiary. I will bet his performance this season is somewhat due to his lingering knee issues. Watch for a steady diet of Crabtree rotated to his side and Smith running either wr screens or double moves, either of which completely flummoxed Porter all season. Porter better man up today, or it will be a painful afternoon for all of us.
	Calvin: "I wish I was a Tiger." Hobbes: "Common lament."

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