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The Disturbing Skinny on NO @ SF

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; New Orleans at San Francisco When this divisional round game was set after New Orleans defeated Detroit last Saturday, the first thought that crossed my mind was, "What does DVOA history say about playoff matchups between an elite offense and ...

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Old 01-14-2012, 10:30 AM   #1
xan
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The Disturbing Skinny on NO @ SF

New Orleans at San Francisco

When this divisional round game was set after New Orleans defeated Detroit last Saturday, the first thought that crossed my mind was, "What does DVOA history say about playoff matchups between an elite offense and an elite defense?" I didn't think this happened all that often, but when I searched our database, I found a whopping 85 playoff games since 1992 with a top-eight offense going against a top-eight defense. In those games, the elite offense went 45-40. Of course, New Orleans will be on the road this Saturday, so what about that subset of games? The elite offense went 15-21 on the road. Now, better teams according to DVOA usually end up having a divisional round home game, so that record might just be a statistical artifact of home field advantage. So what about the subset of games where the elite offense is on the road but is actually the better team overall? In those 15 games, the elite offense went 8-7. All of this suggests that, in playoff matchups between immovable objects and irresistible forces, neither side has a historical advantage.

For more, click on this link:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | NFC Divisional Round Preview

Of special note:

Nevertheless, the Saints' pass defense is so bad that San Francisco can still be successful even if it's with a more conventional scheme. One thing we're likely to see based on the statistical matchups is a heavy dose of Kyle Williams and Ted Ginn. That's because the Saints rank 27th in pass defense against slot receivers, they rank 30th in passes to the short-left portion of the field, and right cornerback Tracy Porter is by far the Saints' worst cornerback (30 percent pass Success Rate) according to our numbers. Before his concussion in Week 16, Williams in particular had been coming on as a viable No. 2 receiving option from the slot, ending the season ranked eighth in DVOA among wide receivers with less than 50 targets. Therefore, he'll likely be the main beneficiary.
I will bet his performance this season is somewhat due to his lingering knee issues. Watch for a steady diet of Crabtree rotated to his side and Smith running either wr screens or double moves, either of which completely flummoxed Porter all season. Porter better man up today, or it will be a painful afternoon for all of us.

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Old 01-14-2012, 10:48 AM   #2
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C'mon Xan, relax. Remember, stats are for baseball. Enjoy the game.
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Old 01-14-2012, 11:10 AM   #3
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Our CB's were toasted all season because we couldn't apply pressure with the front 4.

I think Porter was the primary victim of a weak front 4.
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Old 01-14-2012, 11:14 AM   #4
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I think you're getting too caught up in stats.your forgetting this 9er offense is the worst we've played in a while (statistically).
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Old 01-14-2012, 11:25 AM   #5
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As our line's most likely gonna be pretty much the same next year, I'm gonna point my finger more at the rushing schemes developed for them. If you're blitz happy, it takes a lot of pressure/accountability off of the front four. A lot of folks don't play up to snuff if they're not being pushed into it. Plus the lineman's role becomes more the eating up blockers kind of thing than actually creaming the guy with the ball. I don't really think getting to the quarterback is as important in this scheme as just causing enough pressure to cause the ball to be thrown to one of our formerly rock handed DB's.


Originally Posted by Danno View Post
Our CB's were toasted all season because we couldn't apply pressure with the front 4.

I think Porter was the primary victim of a weak front 4.

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Old 01-14-2012, 11:35 AM   #6
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According to the ESPN folks, doesn't sound like we have much of a chance.

After all, we have NEVER (as they emphasized) won a road playoff game...

Can't wait to see them eat some crow tonight.
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Old 01-14-2012, 11:36 AM   #7
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Ah! Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.

Here is the problem with averages.
If out of $100, I give you $1 and I take $99, guess what, we average $50 apiece, but I got a lot more than you.

Here's another problem with the DVOA: all those teams who comprise the DVOA statistics are not the 2011 NO Saints.
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Old 01-14-2012, 11:45 AM   #8
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Agree with Porter comments. I think he's ready for the move to weak safety. He's a great tackler and has decent speed, but he seems scared of the ball. He used to attack the ball. Now he just makes a good tackle after the catch.

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Old 01-14-2012, 12:07 PM   #9
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I was half expecting
and when neither side has a historical advantage what happens when the both teams have gold in their uniforms.....

But what happens when SP is head coach, the QB is Brees, and .....

We will soon find out. Because it is soone GAME TIME!
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