Camp Buzz: Blitzing Drew Brees not a bad idea

Attached Thumbnails · 08-16-2012, 09:35 AM

Blitzing Drew Brees worked in 2011. This goes against conventional wisdom, but it's also undeniably true. According to the Football Outsiders' Almanac, Brees produced an NFL-high 8.3 yards-per-pass play when opponents rushed three or four defenders last year. The average dropped to 7.2 yards (still good) against five defenders, and down to 6.8 yards against a big blitz of six defenders or more.
This is not what we expected. It is not what opposing defensive coordinators expected either, or they would have blitzed more. No quarterback saw fewer "big blitzes" in the NFL than Brees. This is not a new trend either; Brees has been better against four rushers than a blitz for three years running.

(Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, was more effective last year the more pass rushers you sent at him.)
These sort of surprising revelations are why Lions coach Jim Schwartz, Seahawks G.M. John Schneider, and other NFL personnel read the Football Outsiders Almanac. Anyone that loves football is going to learn a lot from it. A few other fun nuggets I learned:

Rest of the story:
Camp Buzz: Blitzing Drew Brees not a bad idea - NFL.com

Please blitz... Open up PT and Sproles in the screen.

Danno · 08-16-2012, 09:49 AM

What the article misses on is if other teams did start blitzing more, Brees and Carmichael would adjust some things and you'd see Brees' success rate skyrocket.

Linear extrapolation applied to dynamic processes predictably fail.

We're 32-0 when we rush for 125 yards or more. So if we ran every single down in order to reach 125 yards we'd win right?

Tobias-Reiper · 08-16-2012, 09:53 AM

... yep.. great idea to send 6 players all the time after a guy who completes over 70% of his passes for 6.8 yards a down.

Those geeks and their averages.

jcp026 · 08-16-2012, 10:25 AM

SHH!!!

halloween 65 · 08-16-2012, 10:38 AM

I want them to send them, then the corners are 1 on 1 with our recievers, good odds to me.

Tobias-Reiper · 08-16-2012, 12:17 PM

Originally Posted by Danno

Linear extrapolation applied to dynamic processes predictably fail.

you so sexy when you talk all engineerin'n'stuff

papz · 08-16-2012, 12:49 PM

Originally Posted by Danno

Linear extrapolation applied to dynamic processes predictably fail.

Xan?

Rugby Saint II · 08-16-2012, 02:47 PM

Working against this defense might make Drew even better.

|Mitch| · 08-16-2012, 02:54 PM

Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II

Working against this defense might make Drew even better.

It'll have him more adept at reading zone, that's for sure

Danno · 08-16-2012, 07:17 PM

Originally Posted by papz

Xan?

I asked Xan for help phrasing that comment.

He's a cunning linguist!

08-16-2012, 09:35 AM	#1
Threaded by TheOak 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Cypress Tx. Posts: 19,026 Rating: (0 votes - average) Blitzing Drew Brees worked in 2011. This goes against conventional wisdom, but it's also undeniably true. According to the Football Outsiders' Almanac, Brees produced an NFL-high 8.3 yards-per-pass play when opponents rushed three or four defenders last year. The average dropped to 7.2 yards (still good) against five defenders, and down to 6.8 yards against a big blitz of six defenders or more. This is not what we expected. It is not what opposing defensive coordinators expected either, or they would have blitzed more. No quarterback saw fewer "big blitzes" in the NFL than Brees. This is not a new trend either; Brees has been better against four rushers than a blitz for three years running. (Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, was more effective last year the more pass rushers you sent at him.) These sort of surprising revelations are why Lions coach Jim Schwartz, Seahawks G.M. John Schneider, and other NFL personnel read the Football Outsiders Almanac. Anyone that loves football is going to learn a lot from it. A few other fun nuggets I learned: Rest of the story: Camp Buzz: Blitzing Drew Brees not a bad idea - NFL.com Please blitz... Open up PT and Sproles in the screen. Attached Thumbnails Last edited by TheOak; 08-16-2012 at 10:57 AM..
Views: 2568

08-16-2012, 09:49 AM	#2
Danno Truth Addict Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Spanish Fort, AL (via NO and B/R) Posts: 24,720	Re: Camp Buzz: Blitzing Drew Brees not a bad idea What the article misses on is if other teams did start blitzing more, Brees and Carmichael would adjust some things and you'd see Brees' success rate skyrocket. Linear extrapolation applied to dynamic processes predictably fail. We're 32-0 when we rush for 125 yards or more. So if we ran every single down in order to reach 125 yards we'd win right? Halo, Tobias-Reiper and AlaskaSaints like this.

08-16-2012, 09:53 AM	#3
Tobias-Reiper Merces Letifer Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 4,161	Re: Camp Buzz: Blitzing Drew Brees not a bad idea ... yep.. great idea to send 6 players all the time after a guy who completes over 70% of his passes for 6.8 yards a down. Those geeks and their averages. Halo likes this.

08-16-2012, 10:25 AM	#4
jcp026 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 951	Re: Camp Buzz: Blitzing Drew Brees not a bad idea SHH!!! Halo likes this.
jcp026 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 951

08-16-2012, 10:38 AM	#5
halloween 65 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: Grand Haven, Michigan by way of a little Mississippi River town in Louisiana Posts: 5,893	Re: Camp Buzz: Blitzing Drew Brees not a bad idea I want them to send them, then the corners are 1 on 1 with our recievers, good odds to me.

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08-16-2012, 12:17 PM	#6
Tobias-Reiper Merces Letifer Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 4,161	Re: Camp Buzz: Blitzing Drew Brees not a bad idea Originally Posted by Danno Linear extrapolation applied to dynamic processes predictably fail. you so sexy when you talk all engineerin'n'stuff

08-16-2012, 12:49 PM	#7
papz Problem? Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: New Orleans Posts: 11,744	Re: Camp Buzz: Blitzing Drew Brees not a bad idea Originally Posted by Danno Linear extrapolation applied to dynamic processes predictably fail. Xan? Halo and Danno like this.

08-16-2012, 02:47 PM	#8
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,052	Re: Camp Buzz: Blitzing Drew Brees not a bad idea Working against this defense might make Drew even better.

08-16-2012, 02:54 PM	#9
\|Mitch\| 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Alexandria, La Posts: 11,303	Re: Camp Buzz: Blitzing Drew Brees not a bad idea Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II Working against this defense might make Drew even better. It'll have him more adept at reading zone, that's for sure

08-16-2012, 07:17 PM	#10
Danno Truth Addict Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Spanish Fort, AL (via NO and B/R) Posts: 24,720	Re: Camp Buzz: Blitzing Drew Brees not a bad idea Originally Posted by papz Xan? I asked Xan for help phrasing that comment. He's a cunning linguist!

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