Done

alexonfyre · 09-25-2012, 06:04 PM

Originally Posted by FinSaint

Well, that is pretty contrary to what, for example, psychology and sociology teach us.

Naturally you can't look at statistics and say with a 100% certainty that a certain person will act in a certain way in a certain situation based on, for example, some of his characteristics. But you can make an educated guess based on statistical probabilities based on previously gathered data(evidence) as to the likelihood of the said person acting in a certain way under certain circumstances.

I would think that the same principles could be applied to the science of law, and they are in a way, IMO, when a lawyer tries to convince the jury that they'd act in a same way, in the same type of a situation, and under the same circumstances as did the defendant. And, therefore, they should be lenient when deciding on the verdict. I mean in the end, it comes down to behavioral science, and in a way most of us are "programmed" by our society to act in a certain way in a certain situation, the "outliers" to this being sociopaths.

But I do agree with your assessment of the situation the Saints are in now, and the uniqueness of the situation does make making educated guesses based on statistical evidence very hard.

And I confess that I know very little about how investigations into matters of the law are conducted, so I'm sure your statement above holds strength, at least how it pertains to the field of law.

I guess my point was a little bit lost:

My point was that the statistic means that 3% of TEAMS HAVE MADE IT to the playoffs from 0-3, not that THE 2012 SAINTS have a 3% CHANCE OF MAKING IT.

There is no such thing as a "CHANCE" of making the playoffs (outside of the betting world,) we don't spin a roulette wheel to determine the playoff teams. There are too many intervening factors to even make a relative guess at that until late in the season.
Then we have the "0-3" statistic, which encompasses way too many factors to be relevant to any team. By that statistic the Saints are exactly the same as the Cleveland Browns.

Stats that would be relevant to us would be "Avg. wins of a team with no head coach" ; "Avg wins of teams having 13 wins before going 0-3" or something similar.
It turns out they have looked at the last one by the way and it looks like about 6, but most of those teams suffered from a retirement or injury of key players, which is still similar to us, but not directly comparable.

In the law, past experiences and societal norms are relevant to discuss "reasonability" for certain issues like self-defense, but all these statistics would mean about the Saints is that it is not "unreasonable" to believe that they won't make the playoffs. However to say that a season is "over" after three games is equally unreasonable for the EXACT SAME REASON! If the season were over then how did the 95 Lions and the 98 Bills make it to the playoffs? And even if we lose to Green Bay, how is the season over if the 92 Chargers were able to make it to the playoffs from 0-4?

There is simply no rational way to put any team in or out of the playoffs at this point in the season (except the Browns, because they would have trouble winning a BCS championship this year.)

09-25-2012, 06:04 PM	#7
alexonfyre Site Donor Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Black Pearl University Posts: 799	Re: Done Originally Posted by FinSaint Well, that is pretty contrary to what, for example, psychology and sociology teach us. Naturally you can't look at statistics and say with a 100% certainty that a certain person will act in a certain way in a certain situation based on, for example, some of his characteristics. But you can make an educated guess based on statistical probabilities based on previously gathered data(evidence) as to the likelihood of the said person acting in a certain way under certain circumstances. I would think that the same principles could be applied to the science of law, and they are in a way, IMO, when a lawyer tries to convince the jury that they'd act in a same way, in the same type of a situation, and under the same circumstances as did the defendant. And, therefore, they should be lenient when deciding on the verdict. I mean in the end, it comes down to behavioral science, and in a way most of us are "programmed" by our society to act in a certain way in a certain situation, the "outliers" to this being sociopaths. But I do agree with your assessment of the situation the Saints are in now, and the uniqueness of the situation does make making educated guesses based on statistical evidence very hard. And I confess that I know very little about how investigations into matters of the law are conducted, so I'm sure your statement above holds strength, at least how it pertains to the field of law. I guess my point was a little bit lost: My point was that the statistic means that 3% of TEAMS HAVE MADE IT to the playoffs from 0-3, not that THE 2012 SAINTS have a 3% CHANCE OF MAKING IT. There is no such thing as a "CHANCE" of making the playoffs (outside of the betting world,) we don't spin a roulette wheel to determine the playoff teams. There are too many intervening factors to even make a relative guess at that until late in the season. Then we have the "0-3" statistic, which encompasses way too many factors to be relevant to any team. By that statistic the Saints are exactly the same as the Cleveland Browns. Stats that would be relevant to us would be "Avg. wins of a team with no head coach" ; "Avg wins of teams having 13 wins before going 0-3" or something similar. It turns out they have looked at the last one by the way and it looks like about 6, but most of those teams suffered from a retirement or injury of key players, which is still similar to us, but not directly comparable. In the law, past experiences and societal norms are relevant to discuss "reasonability" for certain issues like self-defense, but all these statistics would mean about the Saints is that it is not "unreasonable" to believe that they won't make the playoffs. However to say that a season is "over" after three games is equally unreasonable for the EXACT SAME REASON! If the season were over then how did the 95 Lions and the 98 Bills make it to the playoffs? And even if we lose to Green Bay, how is the season over if the 92 Chargers were able to make it to the playoffs from 0-4? There is simply no rational way to put any team in or out of the playoffs at this point in the season (except the Browns, because they would have trouble winning a BCS championship this year.) SloMotion likes this.

LinkBacks (?) LinkBack to this Thread: https://blackandgold.com/saints/50791-done.html
Posted By	For	Type	Date	Hits
Done	This thread	Refback	09-24-2012 06:10 PM	2