xan

At the halfway point at 3-5, there are 5 locks for spots:

Green Bay
Chicago
San Fran
Giants
Atlanta

That leaves 1 spot.

There are 5 teams above the Saints:

Minny - 5-4 (CHI * 2, GB *2, Houston) Projected 7-9
Seattle - 5-4 (CHI, SF) Projected 10-6
Detroit - 4-4 (GB *2, ATL, CHI) Projected 8-8
TB - 4-4 (ATL *2, NO, Denver) Projected 8-8
AZ - 4-5 (ATL, CHI, SF) Projected 8-8

Looking at the schedule, ours is not the toughest, but it is close.

ATL Possible loss
@OAK win
SF Possible loss
@ATL Probable loss
@NY Probable loss
TB win
@DAL possible loss
CAR (if history is any indicator) probable loss

so 5-11. Even turning possible losses into wins, 9-7. if we go 10-6, we'd have to have 5 or fewer losses in conference, and we stand at 3. we'd lose the common opponents because Seattle beat GB and CAR.

Odds? (That Chiefs loss is looking awfully expensive now)

Calvin: "I wish I was a Tiger."
Hobbes: "Common lament."