Playoff Picture - Its quite possible

WillSaints81 · 11-26-2012, 06:05 PM

Originally Posted by xan

According to Football Outsiders, who are pretty accurate on these things, before the loss to the 9ers, we had an 8.6% total shot at the playoffs. Not to be too much of a downer, but my bet is that we are even less of a shot now. Even with 10 wins, we don't win tiebreaks with many teams.

With 10 wins we have a better conference record than Seattle. Those people were probably thinking Seattle will win in Chicago too and beat SF to go 11-5. No way can the redskins and giants both go 10-6. Giants would have to beat us and lose to the redskins for that to happen. Problem with that is redskins are likely splitting or losing both of their home games coming up. And who said it will be a cakewalk in Philadelphia week 16? Eagles didnt not play hard last year when they were already out. And the eagles are certainly capable of going on a late run to 8-8 and if they win in Dallas they can end up 9-7(I don't trust bucs beating a determined Vick or bengals on the road and think panthers lose tonight) and win the division(sweeping giants). If we go 10-6 we're in with Seattle losing 1 more game. NFC East is still the NFC East and too many division games coming up with them.

Danno · 11-26-2012, 06:35 PM

Originally Posted by xan

According to Football Outsiders, who are pretty accurate on these things, before the loss to the 9ers, we had an 8.6% total shot at the playoffs. Not to be too much of a downer, but my bet is that we are even less of a shot now. Even with 10 wins, we don't win tiebreaks with many teams.

But they have pretty much everyone except the current wildcard leaders at about the same or worse percentage.

Tampa was at 15%, and if we beat them I'm sure those odds flip towards our favor.

TheOak · 11-26-2012, 07:04 PM

Too early to run all the scenarios and odds. Way too much can happen..

Im sure we can serve the Giants their own ass at their home.

Boutte · 11-26-2012, 10:26 PM

If we had Payton I'd feel pretty good about our chances. Let's face it, our offense is what sets us apart from the pack and Brees is what makes this O tick. But what makes Brees THE best QB is working with Payton. Those two together are like Montana/Walsh. It's like the football gods ordained that these two should team up.

Drew is still good enough to pull it off even without Coach. With a little help. (Run the frikkin ball!) Being down to our 18th string OT isn't helping though.

st thomas · 11-26-2012, 11:19 PM

I see whats being said. But what did we really expect starting 0-4-
A defence thats on tract to be the worst ever. I tell u what we had apretty dam good fight going on and u never no whats in coming thursday. Another 3 game winning streak.would rap up a winning season that was vertually a 2 - 14 bury our heads in the sand season. Paytons damm proud of the boys now. And he should see we need to revamp thedef ends. Via trade or draft.

bobdog86 · 11-27-2012, 12:36 AM

You win and lose as a team, unfortunately when you are the 100 million dollar man, QB and leader, you take the hit. And quite honestly, he deserved most of the blame on this one. After busting there humps for 29 minutes and 22 seconds to gain momentum and take the lead, you can not throw a pick in that situation. He had tunnel vision on Graham and all 11 defensive players on the niners knew where he was going. Can't make that throw, period.

UK_WhoDat · 11-27-2012, 08:14 AM

Originally Posted by TheOak

Too early to run all the scenarios and odds. Way too much can happen......

Yep.

And just 2 more games will make the playoff picture so much more clear.

Rugby Saint II · 11-27-2012, 01:07 PM

It's quite possible just not very plausible.

WillSaints81 · 11-27-2012, 01:59 PM

Originally Posted by Boutte

If we had Payton I'd feel pretty good about our chances. Let's face it, our offense is what sets us apart from the pack and Brees is what makes this O tick. But what makes Brees THE best QB is working with Payton. Those two together are like Montana/Walsh. It's like the football gods ordained that these two should team up.

Drew is still good enough to pull it off even without Coach. With a little help. (Run the frikkin ball!) Being down to our 18th string OT isn't helping though.

Brees though needs to get used to getting better without Payton because he may not be back. I'm just imagining all the stuff JJ is putting in his head.

xan · 11-27-2012, 03:25 PM

Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II

It's quite possible just not very plausible.

I'm only noting this because I'm in the middle of grading terrible papers, but "plausible" = believable, and in describing probabilities, you might wish to use "likely", as whatever probability is assigned to an outcome, its likelihood encompasses the statistical believability in that outcome.

Carry on.

11-26-2012, 06:05 PM	#11
WillSaints81 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,267	Re: Playoff Picture - Its quite possible Originally Posted by xan According to Football Outsiders, who are pretty accurate on these things, before the loss to the 9ers, we had an 8.6% total shot at the playoffs. Not to be too much of a downer, but my bet is that we are even less of a shot now. Even with 10 wins, we don't win tiebreaks with many teams. With 10 wins we have a better conference record than Seattle. Those people were probably thinking Seattle will win in Chicago too and beat SF to go 11-5. No way can the redskins and giants both go 10-6. Giants would have to beat us and lose to the redskins for that to happen. Problem with that is redskins are likely splitting or losing both of their home games coming up. And who said it will be a cakewalk in Philadelphia week 16? Eagles didnt not play hard last year when they were already out. And the eagles are certainly capable of going on a late run to 8-8 and if they win in Dallas they can end up 9-7(I don't trust bucs beating a determined Vick or bengals on the road and think panthers lose tonight) and win the division(sweeping giants). If we go 10-6 we're in with Seattle losing 1 more game. NFC East is still the NFC East and too many division games coming up with them.

11-26-2012, 06:35 PM	#12
Danno Truth Addict Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Spanish Fort, AL (via NO and B/R) Posts: 24,720	Re: Playoff Picture - Its quite possible Originally Posted by xan According to Football Outsiders, who are pretty accurate on these things, before the loss to the 9ers, we had an 8.6% total shot at the playoffs. Not to be too much of a downer, but my bet is that we are even less of a shot now. Even with 10 wins, we don't win tiebreaks with many teams. But they have pretty much everyone except the current wildcard leaders at about the same or worse percentage. Tampa was at 15%, and if we beat them I'm sure those odds flip towards our favor.

11-26-2012, 07:04 PM	#13
TheOak 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Cypress Tx. Posts: 19,026	Re: Playoff Picture - Its quite possible Too early to run all the scenarios and odds. Way too much can happen.. Im sure we can serve the Giants their own ass at their home.

11-26-2012, 10:26 PM	#14
Boutte Site Donor Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Belle Chasse Posts: 1,701	Re: Playoff Picture - Its quite possible If we had Payton I'd feel pretty good about our chances. Let's face it, our offense is what sets us apart from the pack and Brees is what makes this O tick. But what makes Brees THE best QB is working with Payton. Those two together are like Montana/Walsh. It's like the football gods ordained that these two should team up. Drew is still good enough to pull it off even without Coach. With a little help. (Run the frikkin ball!) Being down to our 18th string OT isn't helping though.

11-26-2012, 11:19 PM	#15
st thomas Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: lafayette Posts: 7,753	Re: Playoff Picture - Its quite possible I see whats being said. But what did we really expect starting 0-4- A defence thats on tract to be the worst ever. I tell u what we had apretty dam good fight going on and u never no whats in coming thursday. Another 3 game winning streak.would rap up a winning season that was vertually a 2 - 14 bury our heads in the sand season. Paytons damm proud of the boys now. And he should see we need to revamp thedef ends. Via trade or draft.

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11-27-2012, 12:36 AM	#16
bobdog86 Site Donor Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Washington State Posts: 1,406	Re: Playoff Picture - Its quite possible You win and lose as a team, unfortunately when you are the 100 million dollar man, QB and leader, you take the hit. And quite honestly, he deserved most of the blame on this one. After busting there humps for 29 minutes and 22 seconds to gain momentum and take the lead, you can not throw a pick in that situation. He had tunnel vision on Graham and all 11 defensive players on the niners knew where he was going. Can't make that throw, period.

11-27-2012, 08:14 AM	#17
UK_WhoDat 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Wherever I lay my hat Posts: 3,947	Re: Playoff Picture - Its quite possible Originally Posted by TheOak Too early to run all the scenarios and odds. Way too much can happen...... Yep. And just 2 more games will make the playoff picture so much more clear.

11-27-2012, 01:07 PM	#18
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,052	Re: Playoff Picture - Its quite possible It's quite possible just not very plausible. xan likes this.

11-27-2012, 01:59 PM	#19
WillSaints81 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,267	Re: Playoff Picture - Its quite possible Originally Posted by Boutte If we had Payton I'd feel pretty good about our chances. Let's face it, our offense is what sets us apart from the pack and Brees is what makes this O tick. But what makes Brees THE best QB is working with Payton. Those two together are like Montana/Walsh. It's like the football gods ordained that these two should team up. Drew is still good enough to pull it off even without Coach. With a little help. (Run the frikkin ball!) Being down to our 18th string OT isn't helping though. Brees though needs to get used to getting better without Payton because he may not be back. I'm just imagining all the stuff JJ is putting in his head.

11-27-2012, 03:25 PM	#20
xan Professor Crab and Site Donor 2014 Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Princeton Posts: 3,369 Blog Entries: 34	Re: Playoff Picture - Its quite possible Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II It's quite possible just not very plausible. I'm only noting this because I'm in the middle of grading terrible papers, but "plausible" = believable, and in describing probabilities, you might wish to use "likely", as whatever probability is assigned to an outcome, its likelihood encompasses the statistical believability in that outcome. Carry on.

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