slim chances but still chances

dueceloose · 12-16-2012, 07:19 PM

Idk if anyone saw it but we are still in the hunt for the 6th seed

1st we need to win out then we need massive help
Week 16: Chi loss, Min loss, Sea win, nyg loss
Week 17: NYG loss, Dal loss, Stl loss, Min loss, Chi loss, nyg loss

Is it worth it, is it possible that is the question but the chance is there.

QBREES9 · 12-16-2012, 07:27 PM

We need help. Lots and lots of help.

arsaint · 12-16-2012, 07:30 PM

Alive for another week as I posted elsewhere, but we need ELEVEN games to go right for us in the next two weeks and we only control the outcome of two of them...

Week 16:

Saints over Cowboys
Eagles over Redskins
Cardinals over Bears
Ravens over Giants
Texans over Vikings

Week 17:

Saints over Panthers
Lions over Bears
Packers over Vikings
Eagles over Giants
Redskins over Cowboys

Plus Rams lose 1 game to Bucs or Seahawks

swampwiz · 12-16-2012, 08:39 PM

Originally Posted by arsaint

Alive for another week as I posted elsewhere, but we need ELEVEN games to go right for us in the next two weeks and we only control the outcome of two of them...

Week 16:

Saints over Cowboys
Eagles over Redskins
Cardinals over Bears
Ravens over Giants
Texans over Vikings

Week 17:

Saints over Panthers
Lions over Bears
Packers over Vikings
Eagles over Giants
Redskins over Cowboys

Plus Rams lose 1 game to Bucs or Seahawks

This does not jibe with my analysis. The Eagles do not have to beat the Redskins - so the Saints' chances are 2x the odds of your scenario - 3/2048 instead of 3/4096. (LOL!)

QBREES9 · 12-16-2012, 07:35 PM

It could happen.

pumpkindriver · 12-16-2012, 07:40 PM

Slim but at least we're still relevant.

swampwiz · 12-16-2012, 08:37 PM

Originally Posted by dueceloose

Idk if anyone saw it but we are still in the hunt for the 6th seed

1st we need to win out then we need massive help
Week 16: Chi loss, Min loss, Sea win, nyg loss
Week 17: NYG loss, Dal loss, Stl loss, Min loss, Chi loss, nyg loss

Is it worth it, is it possible that is the question but the chance is there.

I did my analysis before I saw this posting, and you are very close to being correct. (It seems that you have NYG losing twice in week 17

) STL only needs to lose to either TB or SEA, so their loss could come in week 16 or 17.

So (presuming we only count one of the losses for NYG in week 17) your analysis shows there is 1 chance in 2^8 (256) scenarios. My analysis shows 3 chances in 2^9 (512), which is 50% better! (LOL!)

arsaint · 12-16-2012, 09:08 PM

You are correct - I missed that one. Eagles don't HAVE to beat the Redskins in Week 16.

We only need to hit a 10 team parlay instead of 11.

Wonder what odds Vegas would give us on that???

swampwiz · 12-17-2012, 03:54 AM

Originally Posted by arsaint

You are correct - I missed that one. Eagles don't HAVE to beat the Redskins in Week 16.

We only need to hit a 10 team parlay instead of 11.

Wonder what odds Vegas would give us on that???

Actually it's a 9 game parlay with a pick'em double.

Interestingly, one time when I was out in Nevada (late November 1991), I did a 14 game parley (only 28 teams and no bye week back then), with the point spread. Something like $5 to pay off $14K. I was 12 for 12 for the Sunday day games.

But then of course, I took the Saints in the Sunday night game and lost (to the Falcons), and ending up losing the Monday night game as well.

UK_WhoDat · 12-17-2012, 01:37 PM

Originally Posted by swampwiz

....Interestingly, one time when I was out in Nevada (late November 1991), I did a 14 game parley (only 28 teams and no bye week back then), with the point spread. Something like $5 to pay off $14K. I was 12 for 12 for the Sunday day games.

But then of course, I took the Saints in the Sunday night game and lost (to the Falcons), and ending up losing the Monday night game as well.

Big shame that.
Is that what they mean by "stays in Vegas"?
You could have single game hedged the late Sunday game. All that does is gets your original and Sunday night stake back and feels like "a penny discout on a Rolls-Royce purchase"

Over here in the UK, I did a 14 game straight parlay, all games going off at the same time. I also did 2 x 7, splitting the 14. The bookie laughed very much when only 1 game went down and all I could collect was on 1 x 7. Sheesh!

12-16-2012, 07:19 PM	#1
dueceloose 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 957	slim chances but still chances Idk if anyone saw it but we are still in the hunt for the 6th seed 1st we need to win out then we need massive help Week 16: Chi loss, Min loss, Sea win, nyg loss Week 17: NYG loss, Dal loss, Stl loss, Min loss, Chi loss, nyg loss Is it worth it, is it possible that is the question but the chance is there.
dueceloose 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 957

12-16-2012, 07:27 PM	#2
QBREES9 Moderator Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: New Haven Ct Posts: 23,989	Re: slim chances but still chances We need help. Lots and lots of help.

12-16-2012, 07:30 PM	#3
arsaint Saint Historian Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: deep in the bowels of a hidden bunker, somewhere under the brick & steel of a nondescript building.. Posts: 2,732	Re: slim chances but still chances Alive for another week as I posted elsewhere, but we need ELEVEN games to go right for us in the next two weeks and we only control the outcome of two of them... Week 16: Saints over Cowboys Eagles over Redskins Cardinals over Bears Ravens over Giants Texans over Vikings Week 17: Saints over Panthers Lions over Bears Packers over Vikings Eagles over Giants Redskins over Cowboys Plus Rams lose 1 game to Bucs or Seahawks

12-16-2012, 08:39 PM	#4
swampwiz Rookie Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 6	Re: slim chances but still chances Originally Posted by arsaint Alive for another week as I posted elsewhere, but we need ELEVEN games to go right for us in the next two weeks and we only control the outcome of two of them... Week 16: Saints over Cowboys Eagles over Redskins Cardinals over Bears Ravens over Giants Texans over Vikings Week 17: Saints over Panthers Lions over Bears Packers over Vikings Eagles over Giants Redskins over Cowboys Plus Rams lose 1 game to Bucs or Seahawks This does not jibe with my analysis. The Eagles do not have to beat the Redskins - so the Saints' chances are 2x the odds of your scenario - 3/2048 instead of 3/4096. (LOL!)
swampwiz Rookie Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 6

12-16-2012, 07:35 PM	#5
QBREES9 Moderator Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: New Haven Ct Posts: 23,989	Re: slim chances but still chances It could happen.

12-16-2012, 07:40 PM	#6
pumpkindriver 500th Post Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Killeen, Tx. Posts: 932	Re: slim chances but still chances Slim but at least we're still relevant.

12-16-2012, 08:37 PM	#7
swampwiz Rookie Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 6	Re: slim chances but still chances Originally Posted by dueceloose Idk if anyone saw it but we are still in the hunt for the 6th seed 1st we need to win out then we need massive help Week 16: Chi loss, Min loss, Sea win, nyg loss Week 17: NYG loss, Dal loss, Stl loss, Min loss, Chi loss, nyg loss Is it worth it, is it possible that is the question but the chance is there. I did my analysis before I saw this posting, and you are very close to being correct. (It seems that you have NYG losing twice in week 17 ) STL only needs to lose to either TB or SEA, so their loss could come in week 16 or 17. So (presuming we only count one of the losses for NYG in week 17) your analysis shows there is 1 chance in 2^8 (256) scenarios. My analysis shows 3 chances in 2^9 (512), which is 50% better! (LOL!)
swampwiz Rookie Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 6

12-16-2012, 09:08 PM	#8
arsaint Saint Historian Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: deep in the bowels of a hidden bunker, somewhere under the brick & steel of a nondescript building.. Posts: 2,732	Re: slim chances but still chances You are correct - I missed that one. Eagles don't HAVE to beat the Redskins in Week 16. We only need to hit a 10 team parlay instead of 11. Wonder what odds Vegas would give us on that???
	Last edited by arsaint; 12-16-2012 at 09:11 PM..

12-17-2012, 03:54 AM	#9
swampwiz Rookie Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 6	Re: slim chances but still chances Originally Posted by arsaint You are correct - I missed that one. Eagles don't HAVE to beat the Redskins in Week 16. We only need to hit a 10 team parlay instead of 11. Wonder what odds Vegas would give us on that??? Actually it's a 9 game parlay with a pick'em double. Interestingly, one time when I was out in Nevada (late November 1991), I did a 14 game parley (only 28 teams and no bye week back then), with the point spread. Something like $5 to pay off $14K. I was 12 for 12 for the Sunday day games. But then of course, I took the Saints in the Sunday night game and lost (to the Falcons), and ending up losing the Monday night game as well.
swampwiz Rookie Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 6

12-17-2012, 01:37 PM	#10
UK_WhoDat 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Wherever I lay my hat Posts: 4,000	Re: slim chances but still chances Originally Posted by swampwiz ....Interestingly, one time when I was out in Nevada (late November 1991), I did a 14 game parley (only 28 teams and no bye week back then), with the point spread. Something like $5 to pay off $14K. I was 12 for 12 for the Sunday day games. But then of course, I took the Saints in the Sunday night game and lost (to the Falcons), and ending up losing the Monday night game as well. Big shame that. Is that what they mean by "stays in Vegas"? You could have single game hedged the late Sunday game. All that does is gets your original and Sunday night stake back and feels like "a penny discout on a Rolls-Royce purchase" Over here in the UK, I did a 14 game straight parlay, all games going off at the same time. I also did 2 x 7, splitting the 14. The bookie laughed very much when only 1 game went down and all I could collect was on 1 x 7. Sheesh!

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