Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

I've done an analysis on the Saints' chances of making the playoffs. Amazingly they are still alive, but to get in, the following games MUST go these ways: (W -> L)

NO -> DAL
NO -> CAR
WAS -> DAL
BAL -> NYG
PHI -> NYG
HOU -> MIN
GB -> MIN
AZ -> CHI
DET -> CHI

and also either one of:

TB -> STL
SEA -> STL

If all this happens, then these teams would all be 8-8:

NO, DAL, NYG, CHI, MIN

with the possibility also of TB being 8-8.

For the wild-card spot, first ties are broken within each division, thus

NO beats out TB because of head to head

DAL beats out NYG because of division record (3-3 vs. 2-4)

MIN beats out CHI because of division record (3-3 vs. 2-4)

So then there would be a tie breaker for:

NO, DAL, MIN

and since all these teams have not played (and thus not even the possibility of beating or having been beaten by the other teams), and the next tie breaker of common games is not applicable because there must be at least 4 such games (and there are not), the next tie breaker is conference record in which there would be:

NO - 6-6
MIN - 6-6
DAL - 5-7

which would eliminate DAL, with the highest tie breaker then between NO & MIN being common games (of which there would be 5 such games), with the record as:

NO - GB (L), TB (W,W), WAS (L), SF (L) = 2-3
MIN - GB (L,L), TB (L), WAS (L), SF (W) = 1-4

thus NO would beat out MIN.

I noticed that someone had posted within an earlier thread the possibility of WAS losing 2 games. For that scenario to play out, it would mean that WAS & NYG would be in contention for the last wild-card spot, and in which WAS would beat out NYG due to a better division record. thus a 3-way tie between NO, WAS & MIN. Unfortunately, WAS has beaten both NO & MIN, so WAS would win the tie-breaker.

It should be noted that WAS & DAL have a game against each other left, so it is impossible for both to lose all their remaining games.

I welcome any critique of my analysis.

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

Welcome aboard. I hope you're right

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

It would be sooooooo sweet if we snatched a playoff spot from Minny on a tie-breaker. They did that to use twice in the early 2000s!

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

Or said in reverse...

Saints Elimination Options



Case #4 is probably the one that gets us next week...

Damn - can you come over and untangle a bunch of christmas lights for me?

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

Good Grief!

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

Brees' post game comments seemed to confirm we are already out of it. At least to him. He said something along the lines of 'even though that SB trophy may not be ours this year, we still have a a lot to play for'

Still mathematically alive Drew! Lol

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

Practically a cake walk.

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

A lot of the help we would need is actually quite realistic, with the exceptions of the Eagles over the Giants, and both Arizona and Detroit beating Chicago. Those 3 games aren't as likely, but not at all impossible. The Giants got shut out today by the Falcons of all teams (the first team to make Atlanta look like a division winner) and the Bears aren't playing much better than their upcoming opponents.

It is a TON of things that need to go our way, so I really have no expectation that it will all happen. But I was looking at some of these schedules yesterday and was surprised that there is even a slim chance. Wasn't sure we'd win another game after last week's debacle, but today was quite a performance.

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

Somebody give me six numbers to the powerball this week.

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

LOL!!!!!!

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

1,2,3,4,5,6

You have better chances.

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

Wouldn't the fact that we would have to beat Dallas head-to-head to get to this point, eliminate Dallas?

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

Before I check deeper and regardless of any errors, may I say:

Bloody good work, Sir!

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

I think St Louis must lose out as well because splitting their next 2 would make them 7-8-1, which is better than 8-8.

So in a nutshell I think it has to look like this:

First we must win out-

Then Dallas, Chicago, Minn, NYG and St Louis must loose out

Correct?

If so, a quick peek at the schedule shows that its not entirely impossible. Just sayin lol.

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

You better ask swampwiz.

He could probably tell you the 6 numbers for each Powerball game until the SuperBowl.

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

My simple mind tells me we are out because of the Rams.
We cannot make up that tie they got.


AND


One of the other 4 (Giants, Cowboys, Bears, Vikings) get the 1 win necessary.



But until they do - then why not enjoy the ride.

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

This is more of a long shot than I thought but I guess you never know. My general rule for NFC teams in contention is I want them to lose in these next few weeks I guess. It's been one, INTERESTING, season to be sure*.

* Screw you, Goodell

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

In what world is 7 wins better than 8?
Check your math again. 8-8 is better than 7-8-1. You don't need a tye-breaker senario to tell you that.

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

7-8-1 in regards to tie breaking procedures is counted as 7.5-8.5

the tie is split between wins and losses.... half a game each

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 

Lmao. Inbred moment. I apologize.