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this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; I've done an analysis on the Saints' chances of making the playoffs. Amazingly they are still alive, but to get in, the following games MUST go these ways: (W -> L) NO -> DAL NO -> CAR WAS -> DAL ...
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12-16-2012, 09:29 PM | #1 |
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Here is the Saints playoff scenario
I've done an analysis on the Saints' chances of making the playoffs. Amazingly they are still alive, but to get in, the following games MUST go these ways: (W -> L)
NO -> DAL NO -> CAR WAS -> DAL BAL -> NYG PHI -> NYG HOU -> MIN GB -> MIN AZ -> CHI DET -> CHI and also either one of: TB -> STL SEA -> STL If all this happens, then these teams would all be 8-8: NO, DAL, NYG, CHI, MIN with the possibility also of TB being 8-8. For the wild-card spot, first ties are broken within each division, thus NO beats out TB because of head to head DAL beats out NYG because of division record (3-3 vs. 2-4) MIN beats out CHI because of division record (3-3 vs. 2-4) So then there would be a tie breaker for: NO, DAL, MIN and since all these teams have not played (and thus not even the possibility of beating or having been beaten by the other teams), and the next tie breaker of common games is not applicable because there must be at least 4 such games (and there are not), the next tie breaker is conference record in which there would be: NO - 6-6 MIN - 6-6 DAL - 5-7 which would eliminate DAL, with the highest tie breaker then between NO & MIN being common games (of which there would be 5 such games), with the record as: NO - GB (L), TB (W,W), WAS (L), SF (L) = 2-3 MIN - GB (L,L), TB (L), WAS (L), SF (W) = 1-4 thus NO would beat out MIN. I noticed that someone had posted within an earlier thread the possibility of WAS losing 2 games. For that scenario to play out, it would mean that WAS & NYG would be in contention for the last wild-card spot, and in which WAS would beat out NYG due to a better division record. thus a 3-way tie between NO, WAS & MIN. Unfortunately, WAS has beaten both NO & MIN, so WAS would win the tie-breaker. It should be noted that WAS & DAL have a game against each other left, so it is impossible for both to lose all their remaining games. I welcome any critique of my analysis. |
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12-16-2012, 09:55 PM | #3 |
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Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
It would be sooooooo sweet if we snatched a playoff spot from Minny on a tie-breaker. They did that to use twice in the early 2000s!
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12-16-2012, 10:12 PM | #4 |
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Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
Or said in reverse...
Saints Elimination Options Case #4 is probably the one that gets us next week... |
12-16-2012, 10:36 PM | #5 |
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Originally Posted by swampwiz
Damn - can you come over and untangle a bunch of christmas lights for me?
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12-16-2012, 10:50 PM | #6 |
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Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
Good Grief!
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12-16-2012, 11:24 PM | #7 |
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Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
Brees' post game comments seemed to confirm we are already out of it. At least to him. He said something along the lines of 'even though that SB trophy may not be ours this year, we still have a a lot to play for'
Still mathematically alive Drew! Lol |
12-17-2012, 12:59 AM | #9 |
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Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
A lot of the help we would need is actually quite realistic, with the exceptions of the Eagles over the Giants, and both Arizona and Detroit beating Chicago. Those 3 games aren't as likely, but not at all impossible. The Giants got shut out today by the Falcons of all teams (the first team to make Atlanta look like a division winner) and the Bears aren't playing much better than their upcoming opponents.
It is a TON of things that need to go our way, so I really have no expectation that it will all happen. But I was looking at some of these schedules yesterday and was surprised that there is even a slim chance. Wasn't sure we'd win another game after last week's debacle, but today was quite a performance. |
If I had a nickel for every time I heard that, the NFL would fine and suspend me.
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12-17-2012, 01:34 AM | #10 |
Shampoo
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Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
Somebody give me six numbers to the powerball this week.
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