A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

SloMotion · 08-21-2013, 05:24 AM

Originally Posted by TheOak

Coincidence is not the same as a trend. There is absolutely no way to reliably discern what a team "will do", based on historic data.

IDK, you can compile data, analyze it and come up with some pretty accurate determinations on just about anything ... it's how they do it in Vegas,

. This is a lotta' information to digest, but there's definitely an interesting coincidence in the NFC South where the majority of Division winners were fourth place finishers the prior season (but I'm not looking for one-trick-pony Carolina as contributing to that statistic this year).

I'll follow the k.i.s.s. rule though:

NFC South

1) Saints
2) Falcons
3) Panthers
4) Buccanneers

TheOak · 08-21-2013, 08:17 AM

Originally Posted by SloMotion

IDK, you can compile data, analyze it and come up with some pretty accurate determinations on just about anything ... it's how they do it in Vegas, . This is a lotta' information to digest, but there's definitely an interesting coincidence in the NFC South where the majority of Division winners were fourth place finishers the prior season (but I'm not looking for one-trick-pony Carolina as contributing to that statistic this year).

I'll follow the k.i.s.s. rule though:

NFC South

1) Saints
2) Falcons
3) Panthers
4) Buccanneers

Vegas compiles relevant data...... It analyses cause and effect. They don't lay down heavy odds on irrelevant data.

Who is injured right now has some relevance on what the possible outcome of this season could be. Who finished second last season has nothing to do with who will finish first this season. Schedules have changed, players have changed, etc....

Once you get past that part, the fact that this is specific to just the NFC South like there is a mystical force in place that doesn't effect the other 7 divisions.... and doesn't effect any postseason makes it preposterous.

On Vegas.... The house was built on people thinking they have figured it out... Not by people actually figuring it out. The house always has the upper hand even if the casino is opened in my living room.

I am however quite curious as to why some scenarios start in 02 and some in 03?

There are oddities but there are gaps

NFC South - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
NFC South - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

SmashMouth · 08-21-2013, 09:47 AM

Originally Posted by TheOak

I am however quite curious as to why some scenarios start in 02 and some in 03?

..errrr.... .because the house always wins?

WillSaints81 · 08-31-2013, 06:51 PM

Originally Posted by TheOak

Vegas compiles relevant data...... It analyses cause and effect. They don't lay down heavy odds on irrelevant data.

Who is injured right now has some relevance on what the possible outcome of this season could be. Who finished second last season has nothing to do with who will finish first this season. Schedules have changed, players have changed, etc....

Once you get past that part, the fact that this is specific to just the NFC South like there is a mystical force in place that doesn't effect the other 7 divisions.... and doesn't effect any postseason makes it preposterous.

On Vegas.... The house was built on people thinking they have figured it out... Not by people actually figuring it out. The house always has the upper hand even if the casino is opened in my living room.

I am however quite curious as to why some scenarios start in 02 and some in 03?

There are oddities but there are gaps
NFC South - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I have compiled numbers for those divisions, this is the saints board though.

TheOak · 08-31-2013, 06:54 PM

Originally Posted by WillSaints81

I have compiled numbers for those divisions, this is the saints board though.

And that answers my 02' 03' question how?

jonnyrotten · 08-20-2013, 10:13 PM

my head hurts

lee909 · 08-21-2013, 02:14 AM

All that maths when the simple answer is
1. Saints
The rest

TheOak · 08-21-2013, 05:00 AM

It has the same impact as interior color does on tire wear.

SaintnDE · 08-21-2013, 05:27 AM

Can i get the Cliff notes?

The Dude · 08-21-2013, 10:14 AM

And this is relevant how?

08-21-2013, 05:24 AM	#1
SloMotion 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 6,776 Blog Entries: 15	Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers Originally Posted by TheOak Coincidence is not the same as a trend. There is absolutely no way to reliably discern what a team "will do", based on historic data. IDK, you can compile data, analyze it and come up with some pretty accurate determinations on just about anything ... it's how they do it in Vegas, . This is a lotta' information to digest, but there's definitely an interesting coincidence in the NFC South where the majority of Division winners were fourth place finishers the prior season (but I'm not looking for one-trick-pony Carolina as contributing to that statistic this year). I'll follow the k.i.s.s. rule though: NFC South 1) Saints 2) Falcons 3) Panthers 4) Buccanneers

08-21-2013, 09:47 AM	#3
SmashMouth I donated, did you? Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Mandeville, LA Posts: 38,782 Blog Entries: 29	Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers Originally Posted by TheOak I am however quite curious as to why some scenarios start in 02 and some in 03? ..errrr.... .because the house always wins? TheOak likes this.

08-31-2013, 06:51 PM	#4
WillSaints81 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,283	Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers Originally Posted by TheOak Vegas compiles relevant data...... It analyses cause and effect. They don't lay down heavy odds on irrelevant data. Who is injured right now has some relevance on what the possible outcome of this season could be. Who finished second last season has nothing to do with who will finish first this season. Schedules have changed, players have changed, etc.... Once you get past that part, the fact that this is specific to just the NFC South like there is a mystical force in place that doesn't effect the other 7 divisions.... and doesn't effect any postseason makes it preposterous. On Vegas.... The house was built on people thinking they have figured it out... Not by people actually figuring it out. The house always has the upper hand even if the casino is opened in my living room. I am however quite curious as to why some scenarios start in 02 and some in 03? There are oddities but there are gaps NFC South - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia I have compiled numbers for those divisions, this is the saints board though.

08-31-2013, 06:54 PM	#5
TheOak 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Cypress Tx. Posts: 19,047	Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers Originally Posted by WillSaints81 I have compiled numbers for those divisions, this is the saints board though. And that answers my 02' 03' question how?

08-20-2013, 10:13 PM	#6
jonnyrotten 500th Post Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Nashville Posts: 512	Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers my head hurts

08-21-2013, 02:14 AM	#7
lee909 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Watford England Posts: 8,875 Blog Entries: 1	Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers All that maths when the simple answer is 1. Saints The rest

08-21-2013, 05:00 AM	#8
TheOak 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Cypress Tx. Posts: 19,047	Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers It has the same impact as interior color does on tire wear.

08-21-2013, 05:27 AM	#9
SaintnDE 100th Post Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 443	Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers Can i get the Cliff notes?
SaintnDE 100th Post Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 443

08-21-2013, 10:14 AM	#10
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,060	Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers And this is relevant how? TheOak likes this.
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,060

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