Actually, by the time we play Seattle they will have already played Miami.

If Carolina beats Miami, New York in addition to already beating New England, St.Louis, and San Francisco that leaves them with 5 common wins.

If we beat St.Louis or Seattle in addition to already beating Miami, Buffalo, San Francisco, and Arizona that leaves us with 5 common wins. If we beat both St.Louis and Seattle then we have the tiebreaker won.

But.............a tied common wins tiebreaker means it goes to conference record, which means Carolina has to beat both Miami and NY to get out of common games tiebreaker only to lose to us in conference record tiebreaker.

You are right on the tiebreaker scenario though we have them beat up until strength of victory.

As of now in that tiebreaker
Carolina's wins
NE-7 wins(likely resulting in 11-12 wins)
SF-6 wins(likely resulting in 11-12 wins, not buying the cardinals beating them)
StL-4 wins(likely resulting in 6 wins, maybe 5 if bears to don't sleep on them and run the ball)
NYG-4 wins(likely resulting in 5-6 wins, do not think they beat Dallas, SD, Seattle, or Detroit)
Min-2 wins(likely 2-3 wins, bengals game week 16 is interesting)
That totals 23 wins atm and will result in 36-40 wins
But they have to beat Miami or the jets remaining(cannot beat both because then it doesnt come to this)
Lets say its jets since its at home
NY-5 wins(likely resulting in 8 wins)
That will be 44-48 total combined wins beat.

Our wins
Mia-5 wins(likely resulting in 8 wins if they beat Carolina)
Buf-4 wins(likely resulting in 8 wins with what they have coming up)
SF-6 wins(likely resulting in 11-12 wins)
Ari-6 wins(likely resulting in 7-8 wins, yep they could just win 1 more)
Dal-5 wins(likely resulting in 8-10 wins)
Chi-6 wins(likely resulting in 9-11 wins)
That is 32 wins that should end up 51-57 combined wins beat. Meaning it wouldnt matter which team we beat between Seattle and St.Louis as we will eclipse Carolina's total by 3 or more wins.