NFC South title scenarios
 

I summarized this for a friend earlier today when I was stuck in a tax seminar and thought I'd post it here since I went to the trouble. These are basically the tie-breaker scenarios as I see them based on NFL rules assuming 1) the Saints and Panthers split their two games and 2) they both finish with the same overall record. Let me know your thoughts, I'm posting verbatim what I sent him:

"Okay 1st scenario - both teams win out and split with each other - Saints win division due to better record against NFC

2nd scenario - both teams finish 2-2, split with each other, but Saints lose to Rams and Panthers lose to Jets - this would be a total cluster**** - sparing you the details of why it would come down to this, the team which had the better strength of victory would win the division - to do this, the total combined winning percentage of the teams each team beat during the season would be calculated and the highest percentage would win. Of each teams' 11 wins, only four would differ from each other so it would come down to whether 1) the Cowboys, Cardinals, Bears and Bills had better combined seasons (our wins they wouldn't have) or 2) the Giants, Vikings, Rams and Patriots had better combined seasons (their wins we wouldn't have). Right now our teams are a combined .500 and theirs are .469 so through 12 games we'd win the tie-breaker. Bottom line is pull for our teams the rest of the way and against theirs.

3rd scenario - both teams finish 2-2, split with each other, but Saints lose to Bucs and Panthers lose to Falcons - Saints win division due to better record against NFC

4th scenario - both teams finish 2-2, split with each other, but Saints lose to Bucs and Panthers lose to Jets - Panthers win division due to better NFC South record

5th scenario - both teams finish 2-2, split with each other, but Saints lose to Rams and Panthers lose to Falcons - Saints win division due to better NFC South record

Bottom line is if we beat Carolina once and beat the Bucs we're going to win the division as long as they don't go 3-1 in their last 4 games. If they do, which is definitely possible if not likely, the key is going to be winning that road game against the Rams. Last time we played them there it ended up costing us a Super Bowl appearance."

Re: NFC South title scenarios
 

Thanks for posting. I was looking for this exact info. We have the advantage as long as we can learn how to score again.

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Bottom line is our destiny is in our hands. Just win and it works out.

Re: NFC South title scenarios
 

True, but bias and emotion aside, I think our most realistic scenario is splitting with Carolina and that's why I wanted to dig into what would be the situation if that in fact happens.

Re: NFC South title scenarios
 

Actually 1 and 2 are not correct. If tied head to head it goes to winning % of common opponents and Panthers would go in scenario 1 and we would actually go in scenario 2 because we would have the same winning % in common games but have the edge in conference wins. We need to sweep Carolina.
NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures

Re: NFC South title scenarios
 

Budsdrinker - Scenario 1 - I disagree, the common opponent tiebreak doesn't consider winning %'s of the common teams played, it considers the Saints' and Panthers' records against common opponents, and that would be a wash. Therefore it would go to NFC records and in that case Saints would win that out 10-2 vs. 9-3.

Re: NFC South title scenarios
 

Budsdrinker - Scenario 2 - I also respectfully disagree, in this scenario the common opponents AND the NFC records would both be a tie and it would therefore go to tiebreaker 5. under the rules, "strength of victory".

Re: NFC South title scenarios
 

Saints will sweep the NFC South, and win the #2 seed!!

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Hope you're right, but if you put a gun to my head about that Carolina road game I'd pick the Panthers. Just trying to be realistic.

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I don't get why we always struggle against the kittens. Whenever you think we will win we seem to lose.

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We beat them at home and it's a toss up in Carolina, just my opinion anyway

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Carolina being next is the only thing I am looking at. Sunday night. I think we beat them. I also think it could be a decent game overall!!

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When was the last time we beat the panties at the Dome?

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Year before last, 2011 we swept them... 30-27 there and 45 - 17 at home :bng:

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I felt certain that the Saints were going into Seattle and beating them handily. Clearly, I gave into my hate and my vision was blurred.

Re: NFC South title scenarios
 

Where ya been?

Re: NFC South title scenarios
 

Priority #1?

Anyone??

Re: NFC South title scenarios
 

As long as we stay tied in division record we beat Carolina in tiebreaker.

Should scenario 2 happen, saints beat bears, cowboys, bills, and cardinals while panthers beat vikings, giants, pats, and rams. All but pats on panthers end likely end up with more losses than who the saints beat. Bears could end up though 7-9, two and a half more wins than vikings who I see at 4-11-1 beating lions last game(they will want to avoid SF). Cowboys I think run the table until the last game where its a wash so 10-6 or 11-5 and giants will finish 6-10 likely or 7-9 pending the seahawks game and thats three to five games less than Dallas. I think cards go 9-7 maybe 8-8 rams go 6-10 or 7-9 and thats two to three wins less than cards. So thats a worst case 7 and a half games difference on our end. And pats I think go 12-4, losing one more at Miami. Bills will go 5-11 or 6-10. Thats 7 games difference at worst between them and pats. If that 7 happens then its strength of schedule tiebreaker and Carolina wins that. Though I doubt cards get swept by the rams or giants beat Seattle.

Re: NFC South title scenarios
 

There are only 2 teams that the other team doesn't play (been this way for divisional opponents ever since the last realignment).

Saints = Bears, Cowboys (Combined 13-11)
Panthers = Vikings, Giants (8-15-1)

Last week the Cowboys beat the Giants (luckily) and this week the Vikings beat the Bears (unfortunately).

We are still 4 games ahead in this category. Likelihood is that the Vikings won't get any closer to the Bears, which makes it impossible for the Giants to gain enough ground on the Cowboys to catch up.

Cowboys = @ Bears, Packers, @ Redskins, Eagles
Bears = Cowboys, @ Browns, @ Eagles, Packers

Vikings = @ Ravens, Eagles, @ Bengals, Lions
Giants = @ Chargers, Seahawks, @ Lions, Redskins

As you can see, the Vikings and Giants could easily lose 7 of the 8 games.

There is no way in hell Carolina wins strength of schedule over the Saints.

Bottom line is the Saints beat Carolina this Sunday night, we are looking at beating the Rams and then the Bucs to end the season to get the #2 seed, GUARANTEED.

I hope they move the Tampa game to a 3 PM start. Carolina plays at Atlanta in week 17 and play at noon. If we can find out if they lose, we can rest some starters instead of risking injury, especially to those needing to sit.

Re: NFC South title scenarios
 

Picky people pick Peter Pan peanut butter it's the peanut butter picky people pick.

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Yes you're correct. I know how the common games % works but for some reason the first time I looked I gave carolina 1 too many wins.

Re: NFC South title scenarios
 

Re: NFC South title scenarios
 

and the same goes for Carolina so the pressure is on.

Re: NFC South title scenarios
 

Good stuff

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The scenarios are more than my brain can keep up with.

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to oversimplify:
-we beat Carolina twice and nothing else matters
-if we split, we have to win the other 2, bc Carolina then has the Jets and Atl, but we win the TB (thanks Ariz & Buff)