srm76

I summarized this for a friend earlier today when I was stuck in a tax seminar and thought I'd post it here since I went to the trouble. These are basically the tie-breaker scenarios as I see them based on NFL rules assuming 1) the Saints and Panthers split their two games and 2) they both finish with the same overall record. Let me know your thoughts, I'm posting verbatim what I sent him:

"Okay 1st scenario - both teams win out and split with each other - Saints win division due to better record against NFC

2nd scenario - both teams finish 2-2, split with each other, but Saints lose to Rams and Panthers lose to Jets - this would be a total cluster**** - sparing you the details of why it would come down to this, the team which had the better strength of victory would win the division - to do this, the total combined winning percentage of the teams each team beat during the season would be calculated and the highest percentage would win. Of each teams' 11 wins, only four would differ from each other so it would come down to whether 1) the Cowboys, Cardinals, Bears and Bills had better combined seasons (our wins they wouldn't have) or 2) the Giants, Vikings, Rams and Patriots had better combined seasons (their wins we wouldn't have). Right now our teams are a combined .500 and theirs are .469 so through 12 games we'd win the tie-breaker. Bottom line is pull for our teams the rest of the way and against theirs.

3rd scenario - both teams finish 2-2, split with each other, but Saints lose to Bucs and Panthers lose to Falcons - Saints win division due to better record against NFC

4th scenario - both teams finish 2-2, split with each other, but Saints lose to Bucs and Panthers lose to Jets - Panthers win division due to better NFC South record

5th scenario - both teams finish 2-2, split with each other, but Saints lose to Rams and Panthers lose to Falcons - Saints win division due to better NFC South record

Bottom line is if we beat Carolina once and beat the Bucs we're going to win the division as long as they don't go 3-1 in their last 4 games. If they do, which is definitely possible if not likely, the key is going to be winning that road game against the Rams. Last time we played them there it ended up costing us a Super Bowl appearance."

exile

Thanks for posting. I was looking for this exact info. We have the advantage as long as we can learn how to score again.

lumm0x

Bottom line is our destiny is in our hands. Just win and it works out.

srm76

True, but bias and emotion aside, I think our most realistic scenario is splitting with Carolina and that's why I wanted to dig into what would be the situation if that in fact happens.

Budsdrinker

Actually 1 and 2 are not correct. If tied head to head it goes to winning % of common opponents and Panthers would go in scenario 1 and we would actually go in scenario 2 because we would have the same winning % in common games but have the edge in conference wins. We need to sweep Carolina.
NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures

srm76

Budsdrinker - Scenario 1 - I disagree, the common opponent tiebreak doesn't consider winning %'s of the common teams played, it considers the Saints' and Panthers' records against common opponents, and that would be a wash. Therefore it would go to NFC records and in that case Saints would win that out 10-2 vs. 9-3.

srm76

Budsdrinker - Scenario 2 - I also respectfully disagree, in this scenario the common opponents AND the NFC records would both be a tie and it would therefore go to tiebreaker 5. under the rules, "strength of victory".

WhoDat!656

Saints will sweep the NFC South, and win the #2 seed!!

srm76

Hope you're right, but if you put a gun to my head about that Carolina road game I'd pick the Panthers. Just trying to be realistic.

Schmohams

I don't get why we always struggle against the kittens. Whenever you think we will win we seem to lose.