Sean Payton Brain Fart

SaintsBro · 12-09-2013, 01:20 PM

The probability of getting 3 yards in two downs, is greater than the probability of getting 10 yards in 3 downs.

Also, 2nd and 3 is more like a play where the Saints will often take a shot. I thought for sure they were gonna find a mismatch and take a shot down the field on the second down there. Then they didn't. Oh well. There might have been two plays, a run and a pass called, and Drew saw something and checked into the run, we don't really know.

The other reason it also might have been declined, is because maybe Payton wanted to take the spot of the ball further up field, to get it outside the 20. Inside or around the 20, sometimes bad things happen to Drew's passes, like what happened with the fumble in Seattle last week, or the pick 6 Drew threw against Carolina last year, in almost the exact same spot on the field (except it was in Carolina). Given the probabilities, and that a turnover in that area at that point in the game would really suck, I don't think it was that bad of a call, to just take the yards and keep on going, we were moving the ball okay in the first half. 2nd and 3 the Panthers will show you a different defensive look and personnel than they will on 1st and 10 so maybe that was part of his thinking too. Who knows. I hope someone asks him about it this week because it was an interesting call, although I wouldn't call it a "brain fart" just because Payton doesn't do what you would have done.

captainshawn · 12-09-2013, 02:26 PM

In Sean we trust!

burningmetal · 12-09-2013, 10:45 PM

Originally Posted by blackangold

Nothing wrong with passing twice after being stuffed on the run play. You got a 6'5 wr and a 6'7 TE; tossing the ball on fade routes is a good call against the 1st ranked run D.

A quarterback sneak in what you do in that situation. There is very little room for the receivers to run routes that close, and often trying to force a pass there ends in disaster. For us, it ended in 3 points instead of 6. It's a non issue now, but it was not high percentage play-calling. The fade rarely works aswell.

burningmetal · 12-09-2013, 10:48 PM

Originally Posted by SaintsBro

The probability of getting 3 yards in two downs, is greater than the probability of getting 10 yards in 3 downs.

Also, 2nd and 3 is more like a play where the Saints will often take a shot. I thought for sure they were gonna find a mismatch and take a shot down the field on the second down there. Then they didn't. Oh well. There might have been two plays, a run and a pass called, and Drew saw something and checked into the run, we don't really know.

The other reason it also might have been declined, is because maybe Payton wanted to take the spot of the ball further up field, to get it outside the 20. Inside or around the 20, sometimes bad things happen to Drew's passes, like what happened with the fumble in Seattle last week, or the pick 6 Drew threw against Carolina last year, in almost the exact same spot on the field (except it was in Carolina). Given the probabilities, and that a turnover in that area at that point in the game would really suck, I don't think it was that bad of a call, to just take the yards and keep on going, we were moving the ball okay in the first half. 2nd and 3 the Panthers will show you a different defensive look and personnel than they will on 1st and 10 so maybe that was part of his thinking too. Who knows. I hope someone asks him about it this week because it was an interesting call, although I wouldn't call it a "brain fart" just because Payton doesn't do what you would have done.

Not when you are a passing team. We don't run well, as evidenced lastnight. Sure we get some chunks against bottom feeding defenses like the Cowboys, but unless you're talking about 15 yards difference, I'll take the extra down every time. 2nd and 1, i can see taking the play and running for the first down, but anything beyond that, it's not a good thing for us to be attempting to run for a first down in my opinion.

jeanpierre · 12-09-2013, 11:37 PM

Have no problem with discussing (second guessing) Coach Payton; I mean, are we all supposed to just post how much we love the team?!?

Let's eliminate color and let the moderators with closet nazi feelings manage us into another production of Pleasantville...

SaintsBro · 12-10-2013, 10:32 AM

Originally Posted by burningmetal

2nd and 1, i can see taking the play and running for the first down, but anything beyond that, it's not a good thing for us to be attempting to run for a first down in my opinion.

Then you are second guessing the playcalling decision to run on 2nd down, which is a different question from the penalty decision to take the yards.

Take the penalty, it's first down, you have 3 downs to get 10 yards = you need to get 3.3 yards per play, from the 21
Take the 2nd and 3, you have 2 plays to get 3 yards = you need 1.5 yards per play and you're out to the 23. Better field position, lower yards to go, higher probability you'll get it in two tries.

It has nothing to do with having a good running game or not. It has nothing to do with your emotions about the Saints, wanting them to pass more or your opinion on not wanting them to run. It's about probability, which is easier/harder or more likely to be achieved -- 3 downs to get 10 or 2 downs to get 3. You're saying in that situation you'll "take" the 1st and 10, and that's fine, that's your decision, you're the coach -- but you are taking the harder path to achieve success, with a more difficult probability to get it.

Plus, when Brees is that close to our own goal line, it also makes sense to take the yards, to go forward, and keep going and get further outside the 20. Because that is the area of the field where fumbles and turnovers going the other direction are especially dangerous. Brees just had one the week before and he had thrown a pick 6 last year against Carolina in almost the same exact field position.

Rugby Saint II · 12-10-2013, 12:16 PM

When Payton made the call and Collinsworth was questioning it I said "He won a Superbowl. I trust him."

SaintFanInATLHELL · 12-10-2013, 04:04 PM

Originally Posted by Srgt. Hulka

Why would it have been a 1st and 10? The penalty occurred on a 1st and 10, and it was a 5 yard penalty. I thought it would have been a 1st and 5.

Defensive Holding comes with an automatic first down. So it would be 1st and 10 even though the penalty yards are only 5 yards.

SFIAH

hagan714 · 12-10-2013, 07:15 PM

that was one of the duh moments in life.

ScottF · 12-10-2013, 09:05 PM

Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II

When Payton made the call and Collinsworth was questioning it I said "He won a Superbowl. I trust him."

He also said, " I have NEVER seen anyone turn down a first down." Everything in context.

12-09-2013, 01:20 PM	#31
SaintsBro Site Donor Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: in line with my ridiculous CLEAR PLASTIC BAG Posts: 3,650 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart The probability of getting 3 yards in two downs, is greater than the probability of getting 10 yards in 3 downs. Also, 2nd and 3 is more like a play where the Saints will often take a shot. I thought for sure they were gonna find a mismatch and take a shot down the field on the second down there. Then they didn't. Oh well. There might have been two plays, a run and a pass called, and Drew saw something and checked into the run, we don't really know. The other reason it also might have been declined, is because maybe Payton wanted to take the spot of the ball further up field, to get it outside the 20. Inside or around the 20, sometimes bad things happen to Drew's passes, like what happened with the fumble in Seattle last week, or the pick 6 Drew threw against Carolina last year, in almost the exact same spot on the field (except it was in Carolina). Given the probabilities, and that a turnover in that area at that point in the game would really suck, I don't think it was that bad of a call, to just take the yards and keep on going, we were moving the ball okay in the first half. 2nd and 3 the Panthers will show you a different defensive look and personnel than they will on 1st and 10 so maybe that was part of his thinking too. Who knows. I hope someone asks him about it this week because it was an interesting call, although I wouldn't call it a "brain fart" just because Payton doesn't do what you would have done.
	Last edited by SaintsBro; 12-09-2013 at 01:22 PM..

12-09-2013, 02:26 PM	#32
captainshawn Site Donor 2015 Join Date: Sep 2013 Location: Lake Hermitage, La. Posts: 289	Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart In Sean we trust!

12-09-2013, 10:45 PM	#33
burningmetal 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 3,906 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart Originally Posted by blackangold Nothing wrong with passing twice after being stuffed on the run play. You got a 6'5 wr and a 6'7 TE; tossing the ball on fade routes is a good call against the 1st ranked run D. A quarterback sneak in what you do in that situation. There is very little room for the receivers to run routes that close, and often trying to force a pass there ends in disaster. For us, it ended in 3 points instead of 6. It's a non issue now, but it was not high percentage play-calling. The fade rarely works aswell. ScottF likes this.

12-09-2013, 10:48 PM	#34
burningmetal 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 3,906 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart Originally Posted by SaintsBro The probability of getting 3 yards in two downs, is greater than the probability of getting 10 yards in 3 downs. Also, 2nd and 3 is more like a play where the Saints will often take a shot. I thought for sure they were gonna find a mismatch and take a shot down the field on the second down there. Then they didn't. Oh well. There might have been two plays, a run and a pass called, and Drew saw something and checked into the run, we don't really know. The other reason it also might have been declined, is because maybe Payton wanted to take the spot of the ball further up field, to get it outside the 20. Inside or around the 20, sometimes bad things happen to Drew's passes, like what happened with the fumble in Seattle last week, or the pick 6 Drew threw against Carolina last year, in almost the exact same spot on the field (except it was in Carolina). Given the probabilities, and that a turnover in that area at that point in the game would really suck, I don't think it was that bad of a call, to just take the yards and keep on going, we were moving the ball okay in the first half. 2nd and 3 the Panthers will show you a different defensive look and personnel than they will on 1st and 10 so maybe that was part of his thinking too. Who knows. I hope someone asks him about it this week because it was an interesting call, although I wouldn't call it a "brain fart" just because Payton doesn't do what you would have done. Not when you are a passing team. We don't run well, as evidenced lastnight. Sure we get some chunks against bottom feeding defenses like the Cowboys, but unless you're talking about 15 yards difference, I'll take the extra down every time. 2nd and 1, i can see taking the play and running for the first down, but anything beyond that, it's not a good thing for us to be attempting to run for a first down in my opinion.

12-09-2013, 11:37 PM	#35
jeanpierre Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Thibodaux Posts: 43,543 Blog Entries: 39	Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart Have no problem with discussing (second guessing) Coach Payton; I mean, are we all supposed to just post how much we love the team?!? Let's eliminate color and let the moderators with closet nazi feelings manage us into another production of Pleasantville...

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12-10-2013, 10:32 AM	#36
SaintsBro Site Donor Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: in line with my ridiculous CLEAR PLASTIC BAG Posts: 3,650 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart Originally Posted by burningmetal 2nd and 1, i can see taking the play and running for the first down, but anything beyond that, it's not a good thing for us to be attempting to run for a first down in my opinion. Then you are second guessing the playcalling decision to run on 2nd down, which is a different question from the penalty decision to take the yards. Take the penalty, it's first down, you have 3 downs to get 10 yards = you need to get 3.3 yards per play, from the 21 Take the 2nd and 3, you have 2 plays to get 3 yards = you need 1.5 yards per play and you're out to the 23. Better field position, lower yards to go, higher probability you'll get it in two tries. It has nothing to do with having a good running game or not. It has nothing to do with your emotions about the Saints, wanting them to pass more or your opinion on not wanting them to run. It's about probability, which is easier/harder or more likely to be achieved -- 3 downs to get 10 or 2 downs to get 3. You're saying in that situation you'll "take" the 1st and 10, and that's fine, that's your decision, you're the coach -- but you are taking the harder path to achieve success, with a more difficult probability to get it. Plus, when Brees is that close to our own goal line, it also makes sense to take the yards, to go forward, and keep going and get further outside the 20. Because that is the area of the field where fumbles and turnovers going the other direction are especially dangerous. Brees just had one the week before and he had thrown a pick 6 last year against Carolina in almost the same exact field position.

12-10-2013, 12:16 PM	#37
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 23,747	Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart When Payton made the call and Collinsworth was questioning it I said "He won a Superbowl. I trust him."

12-10-2013, 04:04 PM	#38
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,647	Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart Originally Posted by Srgt. Hulka Why would it have been a 1st and 10? The penalty occurred on a 1st and 10, and it was a 5 yard penalty. I thought it would have been a 1st and 5. Defensive Holding comes with an automatic first down. So it would be 1st and 10 even though the penalty yards are only 5 yards. SFIAH Danno likes this.

12-10-2013, 07:15 PM	#39
hagan714 LB Mentallity Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 15,870 Blog Entries: 68	Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart that was one of the duh moments in life.

12-10-2013, 09:05 PM	#40
ScottF 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Atlanta Posts: 6,324	Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II When Payton made the call and Collinsworth was questioning it I said "He won a Superbowl. I trust him." He also said, " I have NEVER seen anyone turn down a first down." Everything in context.

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