Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

Any Given Sunday: 49ers over Saints
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Any Given Sunday: 49ers over Saints

by Andrew Healy

The interceptions have piled up in recent years for a quarterback that most of us (myself included) would put in the class just below Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. Here's the unfair stat question of the day: How many quarterbacks have thrown more interceptions in the last five years than Drew Brees? While you think about that one, consider the pass that Brees threw at the end of the first half against the 49ers.


While both throws were picked off by lurking zone defenders, the throw from Sunday's game is more representative of the defenses that have led to Brees's interceptions by leaving more men in coverage. No quarterback in football with at least 2,000 attempts since 2010 has faced fewer average pass rushers on his interceptions than Brees, according to ESPN Stats & Information data. On his 77 interceptions, Brees has faced an average of just 4.00 pass rushers. He has been blitzed on just 13 (17 percent) of those interceptions. Rather than blitzing, the better way to get Brees to throw picks has been to sit back.



On his non-interceptions, Brees has faced an average of 4.25 pass rushers. The difference between those two is smaller for Brees than any other quarterback. That negative number indicates that teams hoping to get an interception out of Brees should tend to keep more defenders back in coverage.

When teams do that, Brees has thrown quite a few picks. Only one player (Eli Manning) has thrown more interceptions than Brees' 77 since the start of the 2010 season. I said that was an unfair question before and it is, since Brees has thrown more than 250 more passes than any other quarterback during that time. Still, even his interception rate is roughly league average. For a quarterback who has the highest completion percentage in the league since 2010 and ranks fourth in adjusted net yards per attempt, Brees has thrown a striking number of picks.

Brees ranks just ninth out of the 13 quarterbacks on the list in interception rate, behind Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, and Tony Romo. Brees has thrown more interceptions than Brady and Rodgers combined on almost 1,800 fewer attempts. Brees is still great even despite the picks -- he has been in the top five quarterbacks by DVOA in five of the last six seasons, anyway -- but his propensity to make unnecessary throws into traffic is the flaw keeping him below the Rodgers/Manning class.

Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

Brees has always been aggressive mostly due to the fact that he's been throwing receivers open for years.

However, now he is not being aggressive with his decisions, he is being idiotic.

He did not even look at Jimmy Graham before firing that ball into triple coverage, he already knew he was throwing it there.

The guy has done and will continue to do so much for the organisation, however in a year where he doesn't have a defense to bail him out, he needs to understand that those bad decisions are absolutely killing us.

Obviously it doesn't help that Colston looks nothing like the franchise leader in receiving that he is, unfortunately I think this may be Colstons last season as a saint.

Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

Says more about the O line IMO.

Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

Why?

Is it because Brees is the least sacked QB over the same period?

Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

All it says about the O=line is that they are generally keeping the pressure of him.He isnt getting blitz and far too often trusts his ability to throw into double coverage.

The more we run the ball the more teams will have to push more players into box and it will stop teams dropping so many players into coverage.

Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

I like the perspective from an outside source for objectivity. We Saints fans look at Brees at times (or for some always) with black & gold-colored glasses. I'm not the least bit surprised at the analysis, and I believe it is a fair assessment.

And I love the reference to Colston in a previous post...I think Drew has lost some faith in him, and while I don't believe it's the reason Drew is throwing more picks, it certainly can't help. Colston has been reliable for him since 2006, but Colston's garbage this year has Drew looking for other receivers (throwing off the timing of plays) or forcing balls into coverage more often.

Losing faith in someone that Drew has targeted regularly for 8.5 years plus losing a dangerous outlet receiver when things break down in Sproles has done some pretty good damage to this passing game.

Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

WORD

Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

Mmhmm.

Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

Yea why? The article just said he is more efficient when blitzed. Which I would think would be a credit to the O line

Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

Brees listed at 6 feet tall and 35 years old, guess it's getting harder to see over the O line. Wonder how the Saints vision/eyeglass plan is.

Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

I read it as a defense getting pressure and causing errant throws with only 4 rushers.

That's not good.

Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

agreed. while we plugged a hole at LT it appears the drop in OL play is still happening across the board.

Now the out, OC is new and rotational. that is a huge issue in itself. in the middle of an OL is like a dance. a 3 way dance. sliding and passing off does take a good amount of time to develop. Gelling as they say. the push up the middle has been way to successful for good defenses still. but they seem to be getting better with ever game. not as fast i would like but it is not going backwards

ROT has been solid but speed rushers like we saw in Detroit does cause Zach some issues.

Backup depth appears to be an issue. I have not seen starter material among the group and well we are not getting any younger.

so drew gets a weak pass on some of this but some of the bone head attempts because he is trying to do to much is really hard to over look. those are the ones that are killing us more than anything.

Too me those type of throws shows a lack of confidence in the defense more than anything else. In the past no way would he have committed this many so early in a season.

Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

True (PFF):

12. New Orleans Saints (11th)
PB: 26th, RB: 5th, PEN: 6th

Stud: The team has struggled up the gut with pressure, but has done a much better job on the edges. It’s gone unnoticed but second year tackle Terron Armstead is getting better.

Dud: For a long time Jahri Evans has been very good. But he’s had a couple of issues this year in pass protection, chiefly against Gerald McCoy who was really too good for him. Is this aspect of his game on the wane?

Summary: Much better going forward than going back, they’re betting at teeing off on defenders than trying to hold them in check. The problem has been that most of the pressure has come up the middle and that is making life harder than it needs to be for Drew Brees.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...-rankings-2/3/


I also think its about the lack of Drew's safety blanket. Not having Sproles/Bush as an outlet has hurt this team, and drew specifically.

I thought they would have replaced Sproles with someone in the draft but not having a true scat back is just one of Mickey's blunders this year.

Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

In 2010 Drew threw 22 picks and had the 4th best defense.

Don't think the D has much to do with Drew throwing picks.

Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

That's how I read it. Brees just has the ability to get rid of the ball, although it may be running for his life, which equals the lower sack rates but higher INTs. The O-line should read this article and cringe.

Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

If we had a top flight center then our guards might play a little better.

Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

I like it when Lelito is in at center.

Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

Not impressed with Goodwin this year. Age plus his injuries looks to have caught up with him...Father Time remains undefeated. He was vital in the past, but he's looking like more of a liability than an asset now.

It seems to me that the middle pass rush is handled a bit better with Lelito in there, and our running game seems to be a bit better with Lelito at center.

Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks
 

Great minds think alike, and at the exact same time, too.