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Re: 5 Games the Saints MUST win

I feel like the list was very well done, and the reasoning behind each game was sound.

Still, if last year reminded us of anything, it's that our seasons have just as much to do with what OTHER teams are doing. We kept losing multiple "must-win" games last year, and yet still had a chance at a HOME PLAYOFF GAME until the conclusion of week 16. However, in other years we've seen 11-5 result in road wildcard games (twice). And while 13-3 looked damn good in 2011, it still wasn't enough for a 1st round bye. Unlike 2006's 10-6 record, which did provide a bye week.

Re: 5 Games the Saints MUST win

Ill informed.

Every season there are two groups of must win games:

1. 6 division games
2. 3-4 playoff games

Winning the first group virtually guarantees winning the division. Winning the second wins you the championship.

Games always have the same order of importance:

1. Playoff games
2. Division games
3. Conference games
4. Non conference games

So Putting Indy and Houston on this list and leaving off Tampa and Atlanta makes the original post pretty much a waste of time.

Almost without exception any team that goes 12-4 willing all their conference games will be the #1 conference seed.

SFIAH

Re: 5 Games the Saints MUST win

Quote:

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL (Post 660088)

including Houston is a joke
The guy says our O-line will get a test...it's week 11. I'm guessing they will be tested before that.

The guy also says he has only followed football for 9 years so he doesn't grasp the rivalry thing.
Amateur hour

Re: 5 Games the Saints MUST win

8 games we must win. We do that and we are in the playoffs period. Everything else is just filler.

Re: 5 Games the Saints MUST win

The most important game is the first one. The second most important game is the second game. The third game is the third most important game to win. The fourth is.........well, you get my point. :bng:

Re: 5 Games the Saints MUST win

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II (Post 660515)

While it is true that a "one game at a time" approach does have merit, there are structurally more important games due to the playoff tiebreaker system. The entire objective of the regular season is to get into the playoffs with as high a seed as possible. Here are the top 4 tiebreaks from NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures :

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

So for getting into the playoffs a 6-0 division record trumps everything other than overall record. That's why division games are crucial.

As for seeding generally head to head generalized applies to division leaders from the previous season since they all play one another. Teams that did not finish at the same standing will not play one another, are not in the same division, and will have very limited common opponents which are all in the same conference. For example here are the common opponents for 2015 between the Saints, Seattle, and Green Bay (division winner from last year who are not the NFC division the Saints play):

Seattle: Carolina, Dallas, Arizona
Green Bay: Carolina, Dallas, Detroit

So winning conference games of all types are nearly as important as division games.

Non conference games factor in minimally. They count as common games within the division since each of the 4 division. But there are two tiebreakers ahead of that within the division. There is no factor in the first 4 tiebreakers with non division teams in the conference.

So the point still stands: A win against Tampa is more important than a win against Washington. And that win against Washington is more important than a win against Jacksonville.

Of course I fully expect that the Saints will win all 4 games against those three teams. Add 4 more division wins and you have foundation of 8 wins with 6 division wins. That well positions the team to get into the playoffs with a high seed, which again is the objective.

SFIAH

Re: 5 Games the Saints MUST win

Quote:

Originally Posted by SaintsBro (Post 660033)

I agree with the writer's point that it's important to get a win in the first game. Historically the Saints under Sean Payton do a lot better when they start the season strong -- they are not nearly as good at coming from behind the 8-ball or digging out of holes, you can't reliably count on catching somebody from behind as a way to get to the dance. 2007 springs to mind. In 2009 obviously we stepped on the gas and led the pack pretty much the whole way through. In both 2012 and 2008 we came out flat and the whole year slipped away before you knew it.

Also the first game against the Falcons, is HUGELY important to me. Get that one game up on the Falcons, and the rest of it (including Carolina) will usually take care of itself as the season unfolds. In years where the Saints limp along the whole season, chasing the Falcons from a game behind, those seasons never seem to turn out well.

Well we weren't really chasing them last year.

Re: 5 Games the Saints MUST win

Not one game is more important that the next. They need to win them all.

Re: 5 Games the Saints MUST win

Five games I'd want the Saints to win?!?

vs Dallas
vs Atlanta
@ Philadelphia
vs NY Giants
@ Washington

does a sweep of Atlanta count as one or two?!?

otherwise, add @Atlanta

Re: 5 Games the Saints MUST win

Simply put, we must win 11 games. Its impossible to determine which 11 those are.

We always drop a couple to teams we should beat, and steal a couple of game we should have lost.

We have the talent of a 10 to 13 win team. Winning 11 likely gets us in the playoffs.