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What's wrong with New Orleans Saints' run game? Perhaps not as much as you think

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Think the Saints' offensive line isn't getting the job done? The metrics from Football Outsiders say quite the opposite. * On "power" runs -- third or fourth down and 2 yards or less to go, or any down from the ...

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Old 10-22-2015, 08:42 PM   #1
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What's wrong with New Orleans Saints' run game? Perhaps not as much as you think

Think the Saints' offensive line isn't getting the job done?

The metrics from Football Outsiders say quite the opposite.

* On "power" runs -- third or fourth down and 2 yards or less to go, or any down from the 1- or 2-yard line -- the Saints have a 94 percent success rate. Through six games, no one in the NFL is better.

* Saints running backs are "stuffed" -- tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage -- only 16 percent of the time, which is the fourth-lowest rate in the league.

So if the offensive line is doing its job, does that mean the Saints' lack of production is the fault of the running backs?

Again, the numbers from Football Outsiders say probably not.

When adjusted for opponent and game situation, Mark Ingram is the 10th-most productive back in the league. Backup Khiry Robinson is also well above league average in adjusted yardage, and would be in the top 10 if he had enough carries to be eligible.

So if these numbers suggest everything is fine, why are the Saints nearly last in the league on the ground?

The biggest culprit is lack of explosive plays.

The Saints' longest run all season is 17 yards.

There have been 117 runs of 20 yards or more in 2015. The Saints are the only team without any.

That explains why the Saints are dead last in open-field yards (rushing yardage gained beginning 10 yards from the line of scrimmage).

The good news is that the season is still young and an explosive play or two could bring the Saints back closer to the league average -- and perhaps impact a game.

If C.J. Spiller's dramatic 80-yard touchdown in overtime three weeks ago had been a run instead of a short pass, the Saints would instantly move from 31st to 21st in the NFL in rushing. They'd be just ahead of the New England Patriots.

Recent history suggests the Saints have the personnel in place to turn it around.

The Saints were No. 2 in the NFL last year in adjusted line yards, a metric that seeks to measure offensive line run-blocking. Both Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson were rated highly in adjusted yards. And the Saints eventually finished No. 13 in overall rushing per game and tied for sixth in rushing yards per carry.

Making a leap like that might seem like an impossibility. In reality, it will probably just take a handful of the big plays that have been uncharacteristically absent so far in 2015.

"We're going to keep working," Strief said.

What's wrong with New Orleans Saints' run game? Perhaps not as much as you think | NOLA.com
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