Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out

SaintFanInATLHELL · 05-17-2016, 12:01 AM

Originally Posted by QBREES9

Just fix it.

What exactly is broken? Other than rushing the ball, name a single team offensive stat where this offense was not in the top 10 of the league?

I've been looking at this stat on Pro Football Reference called Expected Points. It's a combination of down, distance, and field position that computes the expected number of points that results from that situation. It's possible to evaluate the efficiency of an offense/defense by tracking the differences in EP from play to play and summing those differences over the course of a game.

Take this example: The EP value of 1st and 10 from your 20 is 1.22. If the offense gets an 80 yard TD then the actual points for the play is 7 (PATs are automatically given). So the difference is 7-1.22 = 5.78 points. However, if the result of the play results in a 2nd and 8 from the 22 with an EP value of 1.25 then the offense would get 0.03 points for the play. And if the QB throws a pick-6, resulting in -7 points, then the offense is charged -8.22 points for the play. Flip the signs of the numbers for the defense.

Here's the point. According to PFR, the Saints offense scored a +144.2 for the season, 2nd in the league only behind the Cardinals. 8 out of the top 10 teams in that category were playoff teams last year.

The flip side is abysmal. The Saints defense was dead last at -204.1. This was 90 points worse than the next team last year. This was worse than 0-16 2008 Detroit Lions @-199 that gave up 517 points for that season. Even 80 points worse than the 2012 Saints defense that gave up a record 7000+ yards in a season.

My point is thinking of the offense as broken is wishful thinking. The defense is close to FUBAR. Let's just hope a full offseason with Allen as the DC and the infusion of new defensive personal will move us closer to the middle of the pack.

FYI last season the top defense in EP was Denver at +146, nearly 50 points ahead of the #2 KittyKats. Denver's offense was 30th at -56.3.

So I ask again: fix exactly what?

SFIAH

05-17-2016, 12:01 AM	#3
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,781	Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out Originally Posted by QBREES9 Just fix it. What exactly is broken? Other than rushing the ball, name a single team offensive stat where this offense was not in the top 10 of the league? I've been looking at this stat on Pro Football Reference called Expected Points. It's a combination of down, distance, and field position that computes the expected number of points that results from that situation. It's possible to evaluate the efficiency of an offense/defense by tracking the differences in EP from play to play and summing those differences over the course of a game. Take this example: The EP value of 1st and 10 from your 20 is 1.22. If the offense gets an 80 yard TD then the actual points for the play is 7 (PATs are automatically given). So the difference is 7-1.22 = 5.78 points. However, if the result of the play results in a 2nd and 8 from the 22 with an EP value of 1.25 then the offense would get 0.03 points for the play. And if the QB throws a pick-6, resulting in -7 points, then the offense is charged -8.22 points for the play. Flip the signs of the numbers for the defense. Here's the point. According to PFR, the Saints offense scored a +144.2 for the season, 2nd in the league only behind the Cardinals. 8 out of the top 10 teams in that category were playoff teams last year. The flip side is abysmal. The Saints defense was dead last at -204.1. This was 90 points worse than the next team last year. This was worse than 0-16 2008 Detroit Lions @-199 that gave up 517 points for that season. Even 80 points worse than the 2012 Saints defense that gave up a record 7000+ yards in a season. My point is thinking of the offense as broken is wishful thinking. The defense is close to FUBAR. Let's just hope a full offseason with Allen as the DC and the infusion of new defensive personal will move us closer to the middle of the pack. FYI last season the top defense in EP was Denver at +146, nearly 50 points ahead of the #2 KittyKats. Denver's offense was 30th at -56.3. So I ask again: fix exactly what? SFIAH foreverfan and rezburna like this.
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