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Why can't people understand something so basic? :confused: |
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http://cjzero.com/gifs/DrewBreesNeckSuperSloMo.gif And I'll remind y'all, Brees, who never misses games, missed a game last season...What's the over/under this season? Look, he's paid, the cap hit is done and there's absolutely no need to do an extension until after a detailed evaluation of the upcoming season can be done... |
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For the Love of GOD, pay BREES.
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Monkey nuts
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I know there are other responses that match this. I thought I had posted this before I left out. Posting anyway.
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Brees does a job in a nearly $14 billion a year market that has less than 10,000 employees at a level that less than 5 people on this planet can do. Now is it fair that the NFL has that market size? Probably not. But has Brees earned his share of the market? Absolutely. And you are asking the correct question. You have a guy that is far outproducing all the 25 year olds that are getting paid more than he is. The desperate teams in the market will pay to get the type of stability we've had at the QB position for the last decade. Quote:
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It has to be balanced against players wanting their money up front. The NFL is the only pro league that has deferred non guaranteed contracts. When Lebron signed his 3 year $100 million contract this month, he's going to get that money whether or not he ever steps foot on the court for Cleveland ever again. It's all guaranteed. You can see the failures of that model with Kobe as an example. His last contract paid him I believe $24 million/year over a number of years, many of which he simply did not play. That contract in the NFL would be structured as up front guaranteed money, bonus payments contingent on being on the team, and unguaranteed salary, which simply isn't paid when the player is cut. We'll see a sample of this with Byrd next year. He'll either restructure, or he will be cut because it'll cost the team more to keep him than to cut him. But at the end of the day, this is the chess match of the NFL. Teams like the Patriots tend to cut most of their high profile people the year before they come into big money and continue their success with getting and developing young talent. Other clubs are a continual string of poor choices. The Saints have been hit and miss. But understand it's rare that someone becomes a Hall of Famer with their second or third club. Brees has been nothing but money since 2006. So my opinion is that the title of this thread is absolutely correct. SFIAH |
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1. Contracts for high profile players are not a strict "what have you done for me lately..." situation. Most often it is tapping the built up potential of past performance. Brees has already outplayed his contract... twice. He does not deserve frankly the disrespect of needing to be evaluated at this point in his career. 2. After the season it's no longer an extension. After the season, Drew Brees is a free agent who's services are available on the open market. And the Saints cannot afford to franchise him at $43 million for a single season with the entire cap hit in that year. Now the Saints can certainly decide that they cannot afford the market value of a soon to be HOF QB and go in a different direction. And that's perfectly reasonable. Green Bay did this with Farve not too terribly long ago. But don't get it twisted and think that the Saints have any leverage in this situation. They don't. So it's simple. Since Brees and his team have given a deadline of the beginning of the season to get this done, the deadline is fast approaching. The Saints need to make the decision they are going to keep Brees and for all intents and purposes break the bank, or decide not to do it and be satisfied with letting the best QB the organization has ever had (and I posit may ever have) go. Options like "let's evaluate and decide" or "let's offer less than market value" are simply not options. If this isn't done by September 11th, we all need to start thinking about other options at the QB position. I can see that some of you do not find that to be very fair. But it's reality. What I really want to know is exactly what options for a starting QB for 2017 for the Saints are if Brees ends up elsewhere? Because that's the reality if this doesn't get done by the first week of September. And what I've seen so far, the Saints do not have a future HOF QB sitting on the bench like Green Bay did when they let Farve go. Or a #1 pick of a once in a generation QB like Indy when they let Manning go. SFIAH |
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Note that the $24 million is both less than the $30 million cap hit he currently has and nearly half of the $43 million required to franchise him next year. The bottom line is that Brees (and every other NFL player) want the stability of years and guaranteed money. NFL owners and GM want the flexibility to renegotiate dollars and the ability to cut the player before the end of the contract for poor performance. In the situation where the end of the contract will be for a player in his early 40s, keeping the years down is probably the critical item. But the only way to get that concession is to up the guaranteed money. You could see this with the negotiation on the Von Miller contract this year. Both sides had agreed on the principal numbers ($114 million over 6 years). Denver offered only $40 million in guaranteed money in their initial offer. Only by pushing it to nearly $70 million guaranteed were they able to get the deal done. The reason is that the guaranteed money is the only real money in the contract. Every player and every GM knows that as soon as the cap payout is less than the upcoming remaining unguaranteed salary, that the contract in terms of the player is threatened. Upping the guaranteed money pushing that time further back into the contract. A fully guaranteed contract pushes it to the end of the contract. So Brees, and rightly so, will resist attempts to build soft money into the contract as it threatens its stability. And he, and all of us should, know that he can dictate terms in the open market. That contract will likely be above market value, above 75% guaranteed, and have an extended number of years so that the club can spread out the cap hit.Think along the lines of 6 years $150 million, $110 million guaranteed. That's why I keep saying that if Brees agrees to a 3 or 4 year extension around $25 million a year, it ends up being a bargain for the Saints relative to the market. So up the guaranteed money, limit the years, and try to get the total value as small as possible. That's the formula for getting this done IMHO. SFIAH |
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Think that 18 years ago there was really a discussion of Peyton Manning vs. Ryan Leaf. Or the fact that Brees was drafted in the 2nd round in the same draft that Vick was drafted #1. Very few people can do this job well. SFIAH |
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And a point I'm going to keep pounding until folks actually start listening: AFTER THIS SEASON, DREW BREES IS A FREE AGENT! He will no longer be under contract with the Saints. The Saints will have to bid with the proverbial other 31 teams in the NFL for his services. There is no waiting to evaluate. After the season the only options the Saints have is to bid for Brees on the open market, or to franchise for 2017 for $43 million. BTW you already have that evaluation. The Saints defenses in 2014 and 2015 were by some measures the worst in NFL history. 7 wins in that situation is frankly a miracle. As someone else pointed out in this thread, it seems that quite a few folks are putting forward what they would like to see happen. But those wants/beliefs don't match the reality of the situation. There seems to be this pervasive fear that Brees is suddenly not going to be a HOF caliber QB in the elite category of today's NFL. SFIAH |
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But it seems clear there is no Rodgers waiting in the wings on the Saints roster. Unlike Denver, it's not clear that the Saints have the defense to start from scratch at the QB position and still remain competitive in the near future. And the simple fact is there is no real evidence of how Brees may perform 3 years from now. Let's try a different tack here. Everyone has outlined their fears and issues. Explain what outcomes you would like to see given the circumstances. I do ask to keep everything within the realm of NFL reality. That means no Brees accepting a 2 year $40 million contracts offered at the end of the 2016 season. By any objective measure it is completely nonsensical. Do we get someone younger and pay them the money for extended years? If so, who? Do we draft a new QB? If so who and when? Do we pay Brees? If so, how much and how long. I agree it's a predicament. My estimation is simple. I presume the Saints want to make another championship run in the next 3 years. If that's the case it can likely only be done with Brees on board. So we pay him the smallest market contract that he'll accept. Start at 3 years/$75 million all guaranteed and work your way up from there. That's my opinion. What's yours? SFIAH |
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But my point has nothing to do with market value. I said that nothing these players do is as important as some of the other jobs out there. Just so YOU know, Millions of people through the years have fought and died, and made peanuts in the process, so that you and those who agree with you can sit here and have the lame opinion that football players are more important because there are fewer of them. Chew on that for a minute, smart guy. My whole point was that nobody "owes" Drew anything. If they want to pay him whatever he wants, that's them. If they don't, and he leaves, oh well. People keep talking like it would be disrespectful to him to ask him to take a little less than he could get elsewhere. It's up to Drew if he'd be willing to do that, but I'll stand by the Saints on this one, if they set a limit on what they are willing to pay. I don't know how it's going to play out in the end. I'm simply giving my opinion. Unlike some of you who have thought all off-season that you knew what was coming. That kind of crap is what deserves the "smartest guy in the room" comment. |
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I'll wait for your sarcastic attempt to dance around that one. |
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He might be out performing 25 year old's now but for how long? And I think a lot of fans are over estimating his performance. He throws a ton of passes, and has been quite turnover prone in recent years. Points per game are well down. Not all of that is his fault as he has taken a beating. He's still a top QB, but is he top 5 in terms of efficiency? I'm, not so sure, and it's the beating he keeps taking that makes me worry about his future. The line needed to be addressed. It was not. That needs to be addressed, in my opinion, before dealing out another mega contract. Again, in terms in terms of market value, I don't think any team should be held hostage by whatever the going rate is. It should be based on performance vs. peers. Instead it has become a quagmire of average QB's making tons of money just because they wanted a shiner toy than the other guy got. It's ridiculous. And I blame the irresponsibility of the GM's who have helped create this nightmare. Drew deserves to be paid exactly what his performance suggests. When they gave him that last contract, he was the highest paid player. He's been up and down over the duration of that deal. So did he earn it? Not really, but he did GET that money. We all know with the way the market plays, that he will probably become the highest paid player in the league again, until someone passes him up 5 minutes later. Is he worth highest paid player when he hasn't been the best QB in the league? In reality, no. But will the Saints pay up anyway? We'll see. Or maybe, just maybe, they can settle somewhere in the middle. I have no idea. I'm just tired of hearing things like "we were nothing before he got here, so he deserves whatever he wants". People find this mean spirited when I say this, perhaps, but it's just life. You don't pay a guy whatever he wants just because of what he's meant. You have to pay him based on what you think he can do going forward. I hope he can stay at this level for another 4 or 5 years. Or even more. But I'm reacting to all the panicking about Drew by fans who seem to think that there can never be life beyond him, and that the Saints should just cave in. I know our other QB's aren't real good. But maybe that's an indictment on this team's ability to prepare for the future. Somehow the Patriots won 11 games with Matt freaking Cassel. Matt Flynn one threw 6 touchdowns in place of Aaron Rodgers. Good teams can't make excuses, and they can't afford to get desperate. They should be prepared. |
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So you don't pull the trigger on Brees. What do you suggest the Saints do then? Take a look here at available free agent QBs for 2017: 2017 NFL Free Agents Tracker | Spotrac You can forget about Cousins. If he has another year like 2015 Washington will tag him a second time as an exclusive franchise player then work to back up the money truck to Cousins house. So what's the game plan if you let Brees go. There's no Rodgers or Luck waiting in the wings. The last guy that moved and playing at an elite level is Carson Palmer. But he was injured in Cincinnati. I know that it feels like Guido and I are stating the obvious. But there simply do not seem to be any better options than Brees in the short term and the market is what it is. Someone please show me what I'm missing. And I'm not missing the fact that Brees will be over 40 by the time he ends his next contract. SFIAH |
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Next, people choose to spend money on the Saints. It is their choice and you or I have absolutely no ability to dictate to others how they spend their money. That is the reason that Drew can be paid this amount of money because people choose to purchase the product. You discussing importance is asinine. People aren't paid by their importance, they're paid per their market value because the business earner determines what their value is based off of what they can do for them. It is like you exist in some Utopian wet ****ing dream instead of reality |
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Throwing for 48,000 yards doesn't mean what it used to. Again, he's still very good, but when you throw as much as the Saints do, you will have yards. They finished middle of the pack in points per game. And as long as we're paying Drew the kind of money people say he's worth, then that's not going to cut it. He needs some help. I have high hopes for the young guys on defense, but I can't say the same for the people who are in charge of keeping him conscious, up front. |
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The bigger reason is that you are a complete waffler. One day you're on one side of this subject and the next day you do a complete 180. When the season starts and Drew has a bad game, you'll say that you love Drew but he might be nearing the end. So I'm not sure what makes you think you are qualified to even make a judgement against me. And since you want to resort to nastiness, I won't stoop to your level, but I will point something out. You have shown zero ability to understand anything I have said. You're beating a dead horse, and just randomly telling anyone you disagree with that they have no clue, or in this case calling me an idiot. You don't understand any part of what I'm trying to say. All you seem to get out of it is that I'm a massive Brees hater (which is ridiculous) and therefore everything I say is just stupid, and you don't read anything else. Sound about right? So let me make it clear, one more time, since you keep ignoring it. I'm not talking about the business aspect of what a player "deserves" or is "worth". I wouldn't pay Drew more than 25 million if it were up to me, which of course it isn't. But some have suggested that he deserves whatever he wants because of what he has meant, and blah blah. That makes me nauseated, considering what he's already made. That's why I pointed out that nothing these athletes do is so important that we should feel indebted to them and just pay whatever. I can think of people who deserve much more and don't get it. SOOOO, with that in mind I don't get caught up in what Drew has done. I appreciate what he has done. But I think if you are the Saints it might not be wise to go higher than 25 million, or to give him many years. And here's the thing... They might not. We just don't know what kind of money is being discussed. It's purely hypothetical. All of our discussion is hypothetical. Does that make sense? By the way, I'm not "dictating" what the Saints should spend. I'm giving my opinion. For all you know, the Saints might have the same numbers in their collective heads that I have, or close to it. Common sense tells you there is only so much you can pay any one player. Either they don't agree with his asking price, or perhaps waiting to see how he performs this year (letting him hit the open market could allow a very QB hungry team to offer Brees an astronomical number). Either way, that tells you the Saints obviously have some hang up, which makes any assumption that the Saints will automatically pay him market value a bit premature. I live in no alternate reality or "wet dream". It was a simple side bar comment that you decided to blow up into a toxic nuclear catastrophe. Freaking chill out. |
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As for efficiency, Football Outsiders has a chart of QB metrics for last year: FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | QUARTERBACKS 2015 Brees was ranked 3rd in total QBR and 6th and 7th respectively in DVOR and DVOA. Quote:
Now the Saints have been up and down over the duration of that deal. But Brees has not. He's averaging 5000 yards passing, 36.8 TDs, and a passer rating of 99.8 from 2012 to 2015 over the current length of the contract. So other than the 19 INTs in 2012 where exactly are the "ups and downs" you refer to? Quote:
I found an article that mirrors our discussion and refers to Brees explicitly. Describes it as a dilemma. https://theringer.com/nfl-new-era-ol...ed4#.w7y03lehd The article points out this is really new territory in the NFL. There just hasn't been an elite healthy 38 year old QB near the top of the league in the free agent market before. BTW I don't think that Brees is asking for everything in the world. But it makes no sense for him to sign a below market contract either. I get that you don't like the market. But that dislike doesn't change it. If Brees keeps up close to the same production that he's had the last 10 years, and the Saints make the decision not to sign him, then many teams next year will see Brees for his production: A HOF caliber 38 year old QB. SFIAH |
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And I think you are still missing a critical point... moving on.. Quote:
Back to the critical point, which is Brees is still playing at an elite level. So preparing for life after Brees really isn't the crucial item. Preparing to support Brees in another SuperBowl run soon certainly should be. SFIAH |
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In reference to the ups and downs, yes, I am talking about turnovers for one. It's not just INT's. He fumbles a lot as well, and also we throw a lot more short yardage plays in place of running the ball, because for much the past several years we can't run. That has kept his yardage total up and lead to lower yards per attempt and ultimately is not leading to more points. He's also been very good a fair amount of that time, hence why I say UPS and downs. I'm not telling you he's been awful. I'm truly not sure how this small point on my part has turned into two or three pages of discussion. |
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It means that you don't have to panic because there aren't QB's on the market. Build a freaking defense, build an offensive line. Be physical up front like all championship teams are. Be creative. For all the money they pay Brees, and for all his stats, this team misses the playoffs just as often as they make it. I'm not blaming that on Drew. I'm illuminating the fact that obviously there is something missing, and perhaps a different philosophy is needed. It's merely a thought. We can win with Drew if they can keep him upright, have some balance on offense and stop some teams on the other side. But that's obvious. Unfortunately, they don't keep him upright enough, they don't run very effectively, aside from a couple of good games, and they don't stop anybody. If they can't afford to pay him, they could theoretically fix some of the other issues and be competitive that way. I'd rather have Drew, but I'm trying to be real. I think he stays, but it's not all about him. This is more reflective of my lack of confidence in the organization in recent years. When you go 7-9 three out of four years (yes I know one was without Payton, but that team still should have been a little better) and make several bad mistakes in free agency and the draft, you've clearly got some issues. You brought up the fact that they traded for Unger and drafted Peat. But those were both last off-season. We had a full year to see how well that worked out. And Unger was good. We know Armstead is good. I never liked the Peat selection, and not only was he bad last year, I haven't heard glowing things about him this off-season, either. The revolving door at guard has been terrible, and Strief is a decent backup who is still having to start. But this is what we're going to have this year, again. And I'm not sure what you're going on about with the 5,000 yards argument. No, only a couple have done that other than Brees, but a TON of 4,500 to 4,800 type seasons are being thrown around by several QB's. Yes Drew has been one of the best throughout his career in accuracy and yards per attempt. I didn't say he wasn't! Stop being offended by any comment that doesn't kiss his butt. Honestly. It's a little ridiculous how worked up some of you get about Drew. I'm trying hard to be patient and not get angry, but this is just going over the top. He has been among the best. However, I see more and more dink and dunk every year. And it is leading to middle of the pack in points. I pointed that out in the last post and you completely ignored it. Instead you went right to the stats. So the defense makes us score less points? The Saints averaged more points per game in 2002 with Aaron Brooks AND a bad defense. And went 9-7, not 7-9. AND that was still before many of the wuss rules had come out and made the game what it is today. So please, let's not act like many of the stats we see today aren't inflated. Drew was once THE best in the league, in my opinion, and is still one of the better. But we're not winning. I feel better about this years team, I truly do. But I'd like to see some consistency built into this organization. Not just "hey, let's keep maxing out on Drew and hope that works out". And I don't know that Drew is asking top dollar. I'm just a bored fan having a discussion with all knowing people. |
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You're certainly jealous of what athletes make and that is kind of sad. 'oh they don't deserve it wah wah." "I would do their job any day of the week, all they do is play a game, wah wah". Yeah you can't do their job and that is why you don't earn what they do, but cry a little more about how unfair it is, and your job is more important. Boo Hoo. |
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I didn't say anything I do is more or less important. I said there are more important things than what athletes do. That's a fact. Without taking into considering anything to do with an inflated market, which has nothing to do with anything I'm talking about, you cannot tell me that football players are worth what they make. I don't care if it's fair or unfair. I have no jealousy towards them. I watch and pull for these guys every freaking year. I know they will always make more than everyone else, and that doesn't bother me. What bothers me is when people start acting like taking a little less is going to kill the guy. I'm not even saying he should take less than market value. I don't want to see it go way over. But let's say he did take less. Is he going to be hurting from that? I always hear the argument "you can't compare what an athlete does, or makes, with regular jobs". Well, that goes both ways. An athlete taking a little less won't hurt him like it would an average person. You can't afford to take less when you aren't making that much to begin with. And you aren't working for the sake of your co-workers. They aren't your teammates. You're there to do your job and there is no trophy at the end. If an athlete wants to win bad enough he can afford to take less, and it has happened before. But I won't sit here and expect that. They are fortunate enough to be in a position of power and leverage. I don't think it's evil. Though there are certainly some greedy people out there, being rich doesn't make you automatically greedy. Just don't tell me tossing a football around is worth hundreds of millions of dollars. "they're worth whatever someone wants to pay him"... blah blah blah. Let me break this down for you: If you needed a new car to get around and work but you decided to buy a house instead, you would consider the house worth whatever you paid for it, because it seemed like the thing to do. But then you realize that you are having a hard time paying the bills and you still don't have a car to get around. You might wish you had gotten a car and an apartment, saved some money, then bought the house. But it's too late. You thought the house was worth it, but that doesn't mean it actually was. It turns out that in reality, you just made a dumb decision. Now I'm not saying extending Drew would be dumb. Not at all. As long as the price is reasonable. Maybe it will be. I guess we'll all find out. I'm not worried about it. I know that whatever happens will happen, and there's nothing any of us can do about it. Maybe we'll go 7-9 again and we can all talk about how great our offense is. |
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According to OTC Drew is the 11th most best special paid QB in the league. So how far down the list should he go? Why are other teams able to be successful, I don't understand? What's that you say...they don't have 30 million in dead money, I see, thank you. So Drew's salary is not the issue, that would be correct. Quarterback Contracts and Salaries | Over The Cap There's more important jobs out there, you guys don't deserve it, Tito get me a tissue. |
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As for the Manning example, he had suffered a severe neck injury and was physically breaking down in other areas. Nobody would ever compare the athleticism pf Manning to Brees. Brees has always been far more athletic. Nothing indicates a sudden collapse as was expected from Manning. |
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