Because when you're getting old and getting beat up (we already know he can't throw as far as he used to, and there is no way in predicting how quickly his arm strength may continue to diminish) it's difficult to project forward like you can with a younger player. Did you see Peyton Manning last year? He went from breaking the single season passing yards and TD's record one year, to being maybe half that guy the next year, to being one of the worst QB's in the league last year. That big contract he signed seemed all fine and dandy two years ago. And then, suddenly, it wasn't anymore.

I'll wait for your sarcastic attempt to dance around that one.

Also consider the fact that Brees is usually up among the top three or four in passing attempts so his chances of having a fumble created are far greater than almost all NFL QB's. Brees does not have an issue fumbling the ball. In fact, he is probably among the all-time leaders in the NFL with fumbles per attempt.

First of all, I'm not sure who the "we" is you are talking about, but I know that Brees led the NFL in deep passing accuracy in 2016. So, lets say that does drop off in the next three or four years. Chances are he would still be in the top fourth of the league and be worth every penny.

As for the Manning example, he had suffered a severe neck injury and was physically breaking down in other areas. Nobody would ever compare the athleticism pf Manning to Brees. Brees has always been far more athletic. Nothing indicates a sudden collapse as was expected from Manning.