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Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Quote:

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido (Post 748614)

Vegas odds have nothing to do with what the odds makers think will happen. It has everything to do with how they view the public's perception. If they feel the majority of the betting public thinks the Saints while win less than 8.5 games they are are actually banking on the Saints winning MORE than 8.5 games.

I'll take that over bet in a minute.

good thing you didnt take it last year, you would have lost

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

2018 Draft
Top 16
bottom 16

only two possibilities.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Quote:

Originally Posted by spkb25 (Post 748703)

good thing you didnt take it last year, you would have lost

Nobody anticipated the way the defense would be decimated by injuries.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScottF (Post 748698)

You are correct as always, Professor, but...
wouldn't you feel better if the O/U was 10.5 and not 8.5?
there is some science with the algorithm that popped out the number 8.5

I described the science: the psychology of gamblers. If the O/U were set to 4 games, everyone would take the over and the house would likely have a massive payout at the end of the season. Conversely, if the O/U were set to 12.5 everyone but Guido ;-) would take the under with the same problem for the house.

So how I feel about it is irrelevant. A line of 10.5 means that about half the gamblers perceive that we'll win at least 11 games. Now that filters previous performance, schedule, and new acquisitions in the offseason. It means that people think we're going to be better.

But each and every year, some unexpected team jumps up while some consistent playoff team falls. So often the results do not match the expectation. So it's unlikely that there is true science attached to the line.

SFIAH

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Quote:

Originally Posted by spkb25 (Post 748703)

good thing you didnt take it last year, you would have lost

Last year the over/under was 7. Looks like Vegas believes the Saints have improved.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Quote:

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL (Post 748730)

Correct. It's not really a science. Odds making is more of an art (combined with a study of human behavior). In the case of an over/under the odds maker uses his/her determination of what is most likely and nudges it up, or down, to try to insure that the majority of money bet will be on that opposite side of what he/she truly feels. If the odds making truly felt the REAL number would be at 10.5 games the uneducated betting public would heavily bet the under meaning the book loses big at 10 wins or less. But, if you push it down to 8.5 you have an extra 2 game pad. The public will still bet the under at a lower rate than 10.5, but still at slightly higher rate than the over and the exposure of the book is greatly lessened. Odds become highly in their favor that they will cover on the line.

Yes. It is art.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Quote:

Originally Posted by Utah_Saint (Post 748741)

Last year the over/under was 7. Looks like Vegas believes the Saints have improved.

Guess that means I would have pushed.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Quote:

Originally Posted by Utah_Saint (Post 748741)

Last year the over/under was 7. Looks like Vegas believes the Saints have improved.

I do too, but is it enough? We are getting very close.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Quote:

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido (Post 748723)

Nobody anticipated the way the defense would be decimated by injuries.

so should we expect it this year since most of these guys have been hurt their first 2 seasons in the nfl?

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

Quote:

Originally Posted by spkb25 (Post 748753)

so should we expect it this year since most of these guys have been hurt their first 2 seasons in the nfl?

Expect that Rankins will break another leg? Expect that P.J. will get sandwiched the exact same way? Expect that Delvin Breaux will break another leg? Expect that Vacarro will serve another suspension?

No. I don't expect any of that.