Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

LAS VEGAS (WVUE) -
Can the Saints win more than 8 games?

NFL 2017 regular season win totals were revealed by Las Vegas sportsbook South Point on Sunday.

They have the Saints over-under at 8.5 and finishing third in what they think will be a very competitive NFC South Division.

They have the Atlanta Falcons at 10, the Carolina Panthers at 9 and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 8.


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Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

I can understand why they'd think that, but I don't think so. This season won't go like the last few... I think we've finally got enough pieces on defense. Heck we'd probably been right there last year if we didn't have all of the injuries.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

The schedule is brutal.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Never did like that town.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

I usually get down there a couple times a year. If I'm down that way before the season starts, I'll take that bet.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Well consider the other sides view...

• Other NFC South teams are getting better.
• Drew Brees is getting older.
• We lost one of the best WRs in the league.
• We have a team and draft that has been injury prone.
• Tickets and Beers ain't getting cheaper.
• We have a very tough schedule.

If you believe this is a great team you should...

Drink the Kool-Aid and...
put your money where your mouth is. :blueshock:

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Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Unfortunately, I don't think they are far off. Doesn't mean we couldn't finally have a few things go our way and get a couple extra wins. But if we are our usual mash unit on defense, things will be the same or worse.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

For better or worse ; I don't think we'll be the same defense. Too many new pieces including coaches

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Been right the last two seasons Ithink. Not a fan and they could be wrong, but I'd put my money on them before any analyst. We are getting close though

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

I can see why they say that. While the other teams seem to make flashy splashes and draft players to be a perfect fit for them. The Saints are drafting the opposite. Not the flashy players, more the work horses, the grinders.

I like what all the teams did really. Its going to be a strong division.

Saints needed to draft who they did for awhile now.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Vegas odds have nothing to do with what the odds makers think will happen. It has everything to do with how they view the public's perception. If they feel the majority of the betting public thinks the Saints while win less than 8.5 games they are are actually banking on the Saints winning MORE than 8.5 games.

I'll take that over bet in a minute.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

we are going to be ticked we traded that second on draft day.

In SP I must trust that i wont be that upset.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Why would it be higher than 8.5? We lost a top 10 receiver and in the draft we added 2 offensive positions we really didn't need.
Each NFC south team added a true difference maker, and although we might have one in Lattimore, we probably won't see that this year.
We will be underdogs in our first three games, got an an early bye, and are in a very competitive division. 8.5 seems high to me.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

They just mad they don't have their football team yet LOL

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Over 8

There have been a lot of changes this offseason and changes don't necessarily equate to wins.

I'm in the camp that believes last season's injuries impacted us more than anything so starting the year healthy with a tough schedule is critical.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

We got rid of a receiver whose value to the Saints offense was diminished by the emergence of a BETTER receiver in Michael Thomas. There are only so many balls to go around. What we received for that player was a pick that could very well turn into a starting RT. With the addition of Larry Warford at RG and Peat entering his second full season at LG our offensive line should be improved over last season and arguably one of the very best in the NFL.

We also added arguably the best free agent RB (Adrian Peterson) and an explosive component in Alvin Kamara that should take the offense to even higher levels. Do not underestimate the importance of an offensive tool like Kamara in Payton's offense. You called it a player that wasn't needed. I beg to differ. It may have been the MOST important addition to be able to bring the offense back to the days of Reggie and Sproles.

As for Lattimore and the defense, it cannot help be VASTLY improved over last year with the return of Breaux, P.J. Williams, Sheldon Rankins, Kikaha and Vacarro who all missed significant portions, or all of last season. Add in veteran defensive players like A.J. Klein, Manti Te'o, Raphael Bush, and Alex Okafor; and highly regarded rookies like Alex Anzalone, Trey Hendrickson and Marcus Williams, not to mention the aforementioned Marshon Lattimore ...

And don't forget the new and improved coaching staff for the LB's, DL and special teams. Those additions can very well be bigger difference makers than any player added to our division rival's rosters.

:bng:

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Guido you mentioned a lot of names. Many of whom were injured last year. If those names stay on the field we should be much improved and finish with at least 9-10 wins.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

You cannot discount the fact that Cooks had top 10 numbers last year that we have not replaced. Thomas is an absolute star, but will he get as many open looks with Snead on the other side instead of Cooks? Of course not.

As for the RB's, in your own words there are only so many balls to go around. I can see making one of those moves, but why both when we had and still have defensive needs?

Ramczyk might be a probowler this year, but if so that means we have a very good tackle (Strief) making $5,100,000 on the bench. I'd rather have that money on the field, specifically the defensive side.

We have great potential for improvement defensively, but most of our upgrades other than Lattimore fall under the IF category: If our DB's stay healthy, If the two backups we signed to start pan out, If the new coaches get max results from the younger players.
I would just feel a hell of a lot more optimistic if we had drafted someone to start opposite Jordan and not an OT, safety, or RB

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Just because we didn't draft one player you wanted doesn't mean that all of the other notable improvements are nullified. I am VERY optimistic. Do you realize that the Saints had the 4th highest number of QB hits in the NFL last season? They are not as far off from being very good as you think.

And, the Saints DID address the DE position. Just because they didn't do it when you wanted doesn't mean that it hasn't been addressed. Kikaha, Hendrickson, Okafor and Mohammad are all players that were not here last season vying for that job. And I contend that there could very well be a greater degree of improvement on our overall team strength with the addition of Ramczyk rather than any defensive end that was available at the same spot in the draft.

You are so blinded by your disappointment that a certain position wasn't addressed right when YOU wanted it addressed that you are missing the big picture.

As far as Cooks' "top 10 number" being replaced, Brees and the Payton designed offence will easily replace those numbers. Cooks leaving does not create any sort of vacuum. I doubt the offense will miss a beat moving into next season. In fact, I expect it to be improved. Cooks was a great player for us, but Brees makes top 10 players, not the other way around.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Just curious-
have you ever had a conversation, here or in real life in which you didn't attack the the other person for his/her opinions?

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Absolutely. All the time. I simply look at the positives. If that rubs negative thinking people the wrong way that is their problem, not mine. I use facts, not emotion. There are probably more people on this site that see things the same way. They use logic. If you see being shown facts and logic as being attacked then, once again, that is your problem.

:)

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

So, in other words, No.

as for your "facts", why pull an arbitrary stat like QB hits out of nowhere? Did the QB hits lead to interceptions? a lower passer rating? fewer points scored? qb starters getting knocked out? That would be "No's" across the board. The fact is we were 27th in ints and sacks, 31st in points, and last in passing yards.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Grape please, flavored with a little vodka. And I am putting my money where my mouth is. That's called groceries...
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Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

And one player that may, or may not, be marginally better than someone we already have on the roster or can pick up in a later round in the draft have that much of an impact? I doubt it. In fact, I am expecting Ramczyk to play a bigger role in the success of the Saints currently and for several years to come.

By the way, did you ever take the time to read the article in the other thread that addresses your very concern?

In addition, do you not understand the concept of dependent duties concerning a defense? The defensive line and the the secondary are co-dependent. Their success, or lack there of, directly correlates to the success or failure of the other. The defensive backfield was totally decimated last season. The fact that the line was still right at the top of the league in QB hits is huge. If they were given any extra time at all by the weakened secondary they would have had far more of the shiny stats you have point out.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

I guess it's time for my bi-annual reminder about Vegas lines:

The lines have nothing to do with reality. They are set only to balance the betting money on both sides of the bet. So if the win line for the Saints is 8.5, that only means that half the betting public believes the Saints will win more while the other half believes they will win less.

As I said, it's all about perception, and nothing to do with reality.

SFIAH

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

1.I have made that exact same point about Thomas and nobody wanted to listen. I think the FO drank the Ginn kool-aid thinking his breakout year was because of his potential when he was drafted and being "utilized" finally when I don't think that's the case at all. Some receivers will not play well regardless of QB. Hopkins is doing fine with the crappy QBs throwing to him so it's not always the QB. A qb can make receivers look good but if they demand volume it will be very hard.

2.We did need a satellite back. Ingram has been the weak link in our running game because of his lack of consistency. When we drafted him in 2011, he cost us a chance at OT against the packers, we were using him too often and squeezing out ugly wins and losing two games, one of which was his fault(bucs). In any game Brees struggles in, Ingram has not proven to carry the team on his back. The concern I have is thinking AP is going to churn 40 yard runs out of 10 carries a game. Good luck with that. It's not always about just talent.

3.Streiff is not going to the bench. I don't see it. he always plays better in preseason anyway. But Ram will be taking someone's place at some point in the season. Hopefully, Peat does not get hurt and Ram ends up being a poor fit there.

4. It's been pointed out we were top five in QB hits. The corners have to be able to get physical with these receivers, to give receivers less time to be open. But the defense needs rest and not have to be thrown back on the field while the offense puts up two field goals before the last quarter.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Exactly. Why would people who don't follow our team as closely as we do think we will be any better than another 7-9 season without signing marquee players? The nation in general doesn't have a clue how improved we are.

I hesitate to predict any win/loss ratio until after training camp but I feel like we will come out of nowhere like we did during our Super bowl run.:bng:

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

You are correct as always, Professor, but...
wouldn't you feel better if the O/U was 10.5 and not 8.5?
there is some science with the algorithm that popped out the number 8.5

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Here's is an example of the accuracy of Vegas when it comes to the NFL:

These are the last 5 weeks of 2016 Statistics Beats the NFL Point Spread

Right 11 and Wrong 15

Not good at all.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

good thing you didnt take it last year, you would have lost

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

2018 Draft
Top 16
bottom 16

only two possibilities.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Nobody anticipated the way the defense would be decimated by injuries.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

I described the science: the psychology of gamblers. If the O/U were set to 4 games, everyone would take the over and the house would likely have a massive payout at the end of the season. Conversely, if the O/U were set to 12.5 everyone but Guido ;-) would take the under with the same problem for the house.

So how I feel about it is irrelevant. A line of 10.5 means that about half the gamblers perceive that we'll win at least 11 games. Now that filters previous performance, schedule, and new acquisitions in the offseason. It means that people think we're going to be better.

But each and every year, some unexpected team jumps up while some consistent playoff team falls. So often the results do not match the expectation. So it's unlikely that there is true science attached to the line.

SFIAH

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Last year the over/under was 7. Looks like Vegas believes the Saints have improved.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Correct. It's not really a science. Odds making is more of an art (combined with a study of human behavior). In the case of an over/under the odds maker uses his/her determination of what is most likely and nudges it up, or down, to try to insure that the majority of money bet will be on that opposite side of what he/she truly feels. If the odds making truly felt the REAL number would be at 10.5 games the uneducated betting public would heavily bet the under meaning the book loses big at 10 wins or less. But, if you push it down to 8.5 you have an extra 2 game pad. The public will still bet the under at a lower rate than 10.5, but still at slightly higher rate than the over and the exposure of the book is greatly lessened. Odds become highly in their favor that they will cover on the line.

Yes. It is art.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Guess that means I would have pushed.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

I do too, but is it enough? We are getting very close.

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

so should we expect it this year since most of these guys have been hurt their first 2 seasons in the nfl?

Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season
 

Expect that Rankins will break another leg? Expect that P.J. will get sandwiched the exact same way? Expect that Delvin Breaux will break another leg? Expect that Vacarro will serve another suspension?

No. I don't expect any of that.