New Orleans Saints Forums - blackandgold.com

New Orleans Saints Forums - blackandgold.com (https://blackandgold.com/community/)
-   Saints (https://blackandgold.com/saints/)
-   -   An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses (https://blackandgold.com/saints/83899-analyzation-season-terms-wins-losses.html)

WillSaints81 08-19-2017 07:52 PM

An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
The one thing that has me concerned is that there isn't much on the field noise to say we have improved, but it's preseason. The schedule is easier than last year however for not only last year's defense but for the offense. There are a few games though that should be easy but may not be easy. I am looking at week 1 and 2 big time.

The consensus is we will beat Minnesota because of AP, but is this really a guarantee? No. What is a guarantee is winning at least two games against the NFC North(because if we lose a third straight to Detroit at home off of a bye, we have problems). Numerically, we have been 2-2 or 3-1 against NFC divisions since Payton first arrived.......until last year. We were 4-0 last year. I expect two wins, but 3-1, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2 constitutes a jump if we don't beat Minnesota. But we want to start out 1-0 right?

Guaranteed loss vs NFC North:@Green Bay week 7

Now comes the toughest test........the AFC. We have just not been owning the AFC lately and I believe we beat Miami and NY. What happens week 2 will affect week 10. Week 2, we play the pats. This is more of a big game for Brees than week 1 at Minnesota. But does Payton understand this? Lately, saints tend to put on offensive displays against the wrong teams and fall flat the next week against the ones we should have taken more seriously. Five days rest following wins have been a detriment more than a benefit. We have not won MNF the last two seasons, but given week 12 and 13; week 1 and 2; week 6 and 7 of last year, we don't need to judge five days rest alone. The team simply performs poorly after a big game. This has nothing to do with defense being bad either as giants, lions, and chiefs were for the most part good defensive games. This is Payton's style of playing. His arrogance takes over when the purpose suits him. He does not seem to realize that this hurts the players. Playing big games on emotion was a pattern of 2006. Think of when we beat the eagles, and two weeks later we get crushed by the ravens. Yes, ravens were a top defense that year and we had issues off bye weeks then. Still, Carolina won in Baltimore those two weeks prior. Then we have a strong game in Pittsburgh we ultimately come out losing, and then we crap the bed at home against the bengals, nvm the fact Brees threw for over 500 yards. Dallas week 14 that season........a huge win that had people talking and finally considering us serious contenders for the SB. What happened after that week? 10 points against Washington. So this is nothing new it is a pattern that in 2009 began to dissipate, only to return in the losing seasons again. If the saints treat week 1 like a mini-super bowl, mark my words............

WE WILL COME OUT FLAT AT HOME AGAINST NEW ENGLAND

Here's something to consider, given we have not gone 3-1 against the AFC since 2008, and it would be a jump in this year's case, the likely scenario is continuing the back-and-forth records recently against the AFC which would be 2-2 this year. But we could pick up where we left off when we could beat the AFC. We went 4-0 in 2009 and 2011. This is considered to be a staple in our elite playoff run. If we are elite again, going 4-0 against the AFC could return. Since 2008, we have gone 4-0, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2, 2-2, 1-3, 2-2, 1-3.

In this year's case for certain, 3-1 would get back in the sequence. From 2009-2012 we enjoyed back and forth records of 4-0 and 2-2. Then from 2013 to recently, we endured back and forth records of 2-2 and 1-3. Both of these lasted exactly four years. If there is a new process, the return of 4-0 to be mixed with 2-2 again. Or 2-2 to be mixed with perhaps 3-1. Next season we host Pittsburgh and Cleveland. We should beat Pittsburgh, but Cleveland is hard to predict. But we go on the road against Baltimore and Cincinnati. We have a better chance to win in Cincinnati than Baltimore. Still, it's not a lock and we run the risk of losing one to either them or Cleveland and even both. So I do not feel confident in 3-1 next season. So, I say 4-0 or we stay in the same 2-2, 1-3 pattern.

What would you prefer? winning for AP and going 3-1 against the NFC North over 2-2. Or winning a statement game against Tom Brady and BB and going 4-0 against the AFC East instead of 2-2? What has an extra win? the AFC East. And those extra wins MATTER. Could we beat both, sure? But our playcaller would certainly have to have a plan dialed up before the season to keep the offense out of fatigue mode. Because no matter what, it will take offense to win week 2.

Now let's not think about starting out 0-2. Forget about it. That means the season is over and 7-9 could rear its ugly head again. I think the continuing pattern improves by one win, assuming no division sweeps against us, and breaking past habits gives us an extra win that exponentially improves our playoff odds. But not if we start out 0-2 again.

Guaranteed losses if 2-2:New England, @Buffalo

Now let's think about the home game after a home game. This has been a problem for us of late.

Last year, we had one instance of back to back home games. And we already addressed this. We know what games we are talking about. In 2015, we had two home sets. The first was week 8 and 9. We win at home against the giants in a shootout and avoid OT, only to miss the FG against Tennessee to lose in OT. Tennessee shut our O down for two quarters as well, and it could be stemming from their adjustments on top of the 51 points we scored the previous week. And let's not forget, we scored too fast. Then week 15 against Detroit. We do nothing until the second half, so we were not really gassed out when playing Jacksonville five and a half days later. And then there is 2014, we never had any back to back home games other than one where we had three in a row and we lost all three. SF was one we should have won, and all that energy into losing that game brought a flat team to play Cincinnati, and in turn play a rested ravens team, who we might have won without all of the injuries. Simply put we back up a easy home win with lesser effort against someone who proves to be a bigger challenge. Week 8 against Chicago should be a win, but how we win that depends. Blowing out a team who has less fight in them does not perpare us well to do the same thing against Tampa Bay week 9, who will most certainly be a contrasting difference from Chicago. And this is where we break the 4-4 conundrum or continue it if we do not start out 0-2.

Do something these two weeks we have not done since 2013, win back to back home games against two tones of teams.

Now let's get to the most important game besides starting out 1-1. That is week 11 against Washington. If we lose to TB week 9 and find ourselves 4-4 again and then 4-5, this is the game that makes or breaks a 8-10 win season. Losing this game can compare to 2014's week 11 loss to the bengals and the miriad of head scratching offensive blunders we have had recently against certain teams. The experts are picking us to lose this game right now. They know the history and are using it. This is a game where we need to begin to start having some fight and stop playing the lost season card. No question Norman and the pass rush will be a challenge, but in a winning season with the same circumstances, we would play hard against that. And remember, winning a same place matchup has increased playoff odds to 50% under SP. This is even a issue if we beat NE and Buffalo, because we could fall to 5-5.

I don't really care to talk much about LA. This game is not won without Washington imo. We would be losing three in a row under the first scenario going into this and that is trouble. So we have a choice of 8-8, 9-7, or 10-6 really. Week 11 dictates this matchup if we lose. The second scenario helps, but I don't believe we have ever won a road game without a home game under SP.

Division games........we got swept by Atlanta last year and Carolina the year before. It's pretty conclusive we will not get swept by either this year. Which leaves TB.....they CAN sweep us if we give them week 9. But I don't think they are a lock to. Our 7-9 patterns have been because of getting swept by a division rival every year we miss the playoffs and losing the same place matchups. Breaking one of these patterns improves by a win; breaking both improves by two. If we have a winning record late in the season, we will have a chance at sweeping either Atlanta or Carolina. That could mean beating Carolina week 3 foreshadows a change. If we are below .500, I think we don't sweep either.

Guaranteed loss:at least one against TB and one against Atlanta or Carolina.

Again, 7-9 is the floor. the ceiling is 13-3. How? beating both Minnesota and NE to constitute 7 wins against two divisions; beating Washington and LA; and going 4-2 in division. Doing the first two would pretty much make this extremely possible. So I have to break down how wins could play out for the other two scenarios I pointed out.

Scenario A-beating Minnesota
7-9, same old same old losses
8-8, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
9-7, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
10-6, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta or Carolina
11-5, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice

Scenario B-beating New England and Buffalo
8-8, same old same old losses
9-7, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
10-6, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
11-5, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta of Carolina
12-4, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice.

So where does the first test begin? Week 3 @Carolina. Week 9 against TB if we lose that.

Now I pretty much just addressed this team's game patterns. If the team has improved then they will not find themselves 4-4 after week 9 more than likely. But the process I listed is in the order based on all of the losing seasons, non-playoff seasons, and playoff seasons.

ChrisXVI 08-19-2017 07:59 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

The consensus is we will beat Minnesota because of AP
Not a single person has said that. I didn't read the rest.

AsylumGuido 08-19-2017 08:26 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Haven't seen anything worth reading before now so I'm skipping this novella as a probable waste of time.

SmashMouth 08-19-2017 08:57 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
K.I.S.S. Principle

Let's keep things simple... if we're not 3-1 after the first quarter of the season, we really have not improved or improved much.

WillMacKenzie 08-19-2017 09:14 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
I can see scenerio-A with the 9-7 prediction being the most probable. Avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington is highly attainable. Now, does that get a wild card or win the division? We'll see

The Dude 08-19-2017 10:34 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by WillSaints81 (Post 759750)
The one thing that has me concerned is that there isn't much on the field noise to say we have improved, but it's preseason. The schedule is easier than last year however for not only last year's defense but for the offense. There are a few games though that should be easy but may not be easy. I am looking at week 1 and 2 big time.

The consensus is we will beat Minnesota because of AP, but is this really a guarantee? No. What is a guarantee is winning at least two games against the NFC North(because if we lose a third straight to Detroit at home off of a bye, we have problems). Numerically, we have been 2-2 or 3-1 against NFC divisions since Payton first arrived.......until last year. We were 4-0 last year. I expect two wins, but 3-1, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2 constitutes a jump if we don't beat Minnesota. But we want to start out 1-0 right?

Guaranteed loss vs NFC North:@Green Bay week 7

Now comes the toughest test........the AFC. We have just not been owning the AFC lately and I believe we beat Miami and NY. What happens week 2 will affect week 10. Week 2, we play the pats. This is more of a big game for Brees than week 1 at Minnesota. But does Payton understand this? Lately, saints tend to put on offensive displays against the wrong teams and fall flat the next week against the ones we should have taken more seriously. Five days rest following wins have been a detriment more than a benefit. We have not won MNF the last two seasons, but given week 12 and 13; week 1 and 2; week 6 and 7 of last year, we don't need to judge five days rest alone. The team simply performs poorly after a big game. This has nothing to do with defense being bad either as giants, lions, and chiefs were for the most part good defensive games. This is Payton's style of playing. His arrogance takes over when the purpose suits him. He does not seem to realize that this hurts the players. Playing big games on emotion was a pattern of 2006. Think of when we beat the eagles, and two weeks later we get crushed by the ravens. Yes, ravens were a top defense that year and we had issues off bye weeks then. Still, Carolina won in Baltimore those two weeks prior. Then we have a strong game in Pittsburgh we ultimately come out losing, and then we crap the bed at home against the bengals, nvm the fact Brees threw for over 500 yards. Dallas week 14 that season........a huge win that had people talking and finally considering us serious contenders for the SB. What happened after that week? 10 points against Washington. So this is nothing new it is a pattern that in 2009 began to dissipate, only to return in the losing seasons again. If the saints treat week 1 like a mini-super bowl, mark my words............

WE WILL COME OUT FLAT AT HOME AGAINST NEW ENGLAND

Here's something to consider, given we have not gone 3-1 against the AFC since 2008, and it would be a jump in this year's case, the likely scenario is continuing the back-and-forth records recently against the AFC which would be 2-2 this year. But we could pick up where we left off when we could beat the AFC. We went 4-0 in 2009 and 2011. This is considered to be a staple in our elite playoff run. If we are elite again, going 4-0 against the AFC could return. Since 2008, we have gone 4-0, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2, 2-2, 1-3, 2-2, 1-3.

In this year's case for certain, 3-1 would get back in the sequence. From 2009-2012 we enjoyed back and forth records of 4-0 and 2-2. Then from 2013 to recently, we endured back and forth records of 2-2 and 1-3. Both of these lasted exactly four years. If there is a new process, the return of 4-0 to be mixed with 2-2 again. Or 2-2 to be mixed with perhaps 3-1. Next season we host Pittsburgh and Cleveland. We should beat Pittsburgh, but Cleveland is hard to predict. But we go on the road against Baltimore and Cincinnati. We have a better chance to win in Cincinnati than Baltimore. Still, it's not a lock and we run the risk of losing one to either them or Cleveland and even both. So I do not feel confident in 3-1 next season. So, I say 4-0 or we stay in the same 2-2, 1-3 pattern.

What would you prefer? winning for AP and going 3-1 against the NFC North over 2-2. Or winning a statement game against Tom Brady and BB and going 4-0 against the AFC East instead of 2-2? What has an extra win? the AFC East. And those extra wins MATTER. Could we beat both, sure? But our playcaller would certainly have to have a plan dialed up before the season to keep the offense out of fatigue mode. Because no matter what, it will take offense to win week 2.

Now let's not think about starting out 0-2. Forget about it. That means the season is over and 7-9 could rear its ugly head again. I think the continuing pattern improves by one win, assuming no division sweeps against us, and breaking past habits gives us an extra win that exponentially improves our playoff odds. But not if we start out 0-2 again.

Guaranteed losses if 2-2:New England, @Buffalo

Now let's think about the home game after a home game. This has been a problem for us of late.

Last year, we had one instance of back to back home games. And we already addressed this. We know what games we are talking about. In 2015, we had two home sets. The first was week 8 and 9. We win at home against the giants in a shootout and avoid OT, only to miss the FG against Tennessee to lose in OT. Tennessee shut our O down for two quarters as well, and it could be stemming from their adjustments on top of the 51 points we scored the previous week. And let's not forget, we scored too fast. Then week 15 against Detroit. We do nothing until the second half, so we were not really gassed out when playing Jacksonville five and a half days later. And then there is 2014, we never had any back to back home games other than one where we had three in a row and we lost all three. SF was one we should have won, and all that energy into losing that game brought a flat team to play Cincinnati, and in turn play a rested ravens team, who we might have won without all of the injuries. Simply put we back up a easy home win with lesser effort against someone who proves to be a bigger challenge. Week 8 against Chicago should be a win, but how we win that depends. Blowing out a team who has less fight in them does not perpare us well to do the same thing against Tampa Bay week 9, who will most certainly be a contrasting difference from Chicago. And this is where we break the 4-4 conundrum or continue it if we do not start out 0-2.

Do something these two weeks we have not done since 2013, win back to back home games against two tones of teams.

Now let's get to the most important game besides starting out 1-1. That is week 11 against Washington. If we lose to TB week 9 and find ourselves 4-4 again and then 4-5, this is the game that makes or breaks a 8-10 win season. Losing this game can compare to 2014's week 11 loss to the bengals and the miriad of head scratching offensive blunders we have had recently against certain teams. The experts are picking us to lose this game right now. They know the history and are using it. This is a game where we need to begin to start having some fight and stop playing the lost season card. No question Norman and the pass rush will be a challenge, but in a winning season with the same circumstances, we would play hard against that. And remember, winning a same place matchup has increased playoff odds to 50% under SP. This is even a issue if we beat NE and Buffalo, because we could fall to 5-5.

I don't really care to talk much about LA. This game is not won without Washington imo. We would be losing three in a row under the first scenario going into this and that is trouble. So we have a choice of 8-8, 9-7, or 10-6 really. Week 11 dictates this matchup if we lose. The second scenario helps, but I don't believe we have ever won a road game without a home game under SP.

Division games........we got swept by Atlanta last year and Carolina the year before. It's pretty conclusive we will not get swept by either this year. Which leaves TB.....they CAN sweep us if we give them week 9. But I don't think they are a lock to. Our 7-9 patterns have been because of getting swept by a division rival every year we miss the playoffs and losing the same place matchups. Breaking one of these patterns improves by a win; breaking both improves by two. If we have a winning record late in the season, we will have a chance at sweeping either Atlanta or Carolina. That could mean beating Carolina week 3 foreshadows a change. If we are below .500, I think we don't sweep either.

Guaranteed loss:at least one against TB and one against Atlanta or Carolina.

Again, 7-9 is the floor. the ceiling is 13-3. How? beating both Minnesota and NE to constitute 7 wins against two divisions; beating Washington and LA; and going 4-2 in division. Doing the first two would pretty much make this extremely possible. So I have to break down how wins could play out for the other two scenarios I pointed out.

Scenario A-beating Minnesota
7-9, same old same old losses
8-8, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
9-7, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
10-6, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta or Carolina
11-5, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice

Scenario B-beating New England and Buffalo
8-8, same old same old losses
9-7, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
10-6, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
11-5, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta of Carolina
12-4, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice.

So where does the first test begin? Week 3 @Carolina. Week 9 against TB if we lose that.

Now I pretty much just addressed this team's game patterns. If the team has improved then they will not find themselves 4-4 after week 9 more than likely. But the process I listed is in the order based on all of the losing seasons, non-playoff seasons, and playoff seasons.

I have yet to read anything but I just wanted to reply beforehand and thank you for your brilliance.

Seer1 08-20-2017 09:09 AM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Anal what?

vpheughan 08-20-2017 12:24 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Originally Posted by WillSaints81 View Post
The one thing that has me concerned is that there isn't much on the field noise to say we have improved, but it's preseason. The schedule is easier than last year however for not only last year's defense but for the offense. There are a few games though that should be easy but may not be easy. I am looking at week 1 and 2 big time.

The consensus is we will beat Minnesota because of AP, but is this really a guarantee? No. What is a guarantee is winning at least two games against the NFC North(because if we lose a third straight to Detroit at home off of a bye, we have problems). Numerically, we have been 2-2 or 3-1 against NFC divisions since Payton first arrived.......until last year. We were 4-0 last year. I expect two wins, but 3-1, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2 constitutes a jump if we don't beat Minnesota. But we want to start out 1-0 right?

Guaranteed loss vs NFC North:@Green Bay week 7

Now comes the toughest test........the AFC. We have just not been owning the AFC lately and I believe we beat Miami and NY. What happens week 2 will affect week 10. Week 2, we play the pats. This is more of a big game for Brees than week 1 at Minnesota. But does Payton understand this? Lately, saints tend to put on offensive displays against the wrong teams and fall flat the next week against the ones we should have taken more seriously. Five days rest following wins have been a detriment more than a benefit. We have not won MNF the last two seasons, but given week 12 and 13; week 1 and 2; week 6 and 7 of last year, we don't need to judge five days rest alone. The team simply performs poorly after a big game. This has nothing to do with defense being bad either as giants, lions, and chiefs were for the most part good defensive games. This is Payton's style of playing. His arrogance takes over when the purpose suits him. He does not seem to realize that this hurts the players. Playing big games on emotion was a pattern of 2006. Think of when we beat the eagles, and two weeks later we get crushed by the ravens. Yes, ravens were a top defense that year and we had issues off bye weeks then. Still, Carolina won in Baltimore those two weeks prior. Then we have a strong game in Pittsburgh we ultimately come out losing, and then we crap the bed at home against the bengals, nvm the fact Brees threw for over 500 yards. Dallas week 14 that season........a huge win that had people talking and finally considering us serious contenders for the SB. What happened after that week? 10 points against Washington. So this is nothing new it is a pattern that in 2009 began to dissipate, only to return in the losing seasons again. If the saints treat week 1 like a mini-super bowl, mark my words............

WE WILL COME OUT FLAT AT HOME AGAINST NEW ENGLAND

Here's something to consider, given we have not gone 3-1 against the AFC since 2008, and it would be a jump in this year's case, the likely scenario is continuing the back-and-forth records recently against the AFC which would be 2-2 this year. But we could pick up where we left off when we could beat the AFC. We went 4-0 in 2009 and 2011. This is considered to be a staple in our elite playoff run. If we are elite again, going 4-0 against the AFC could return. Since 2008, we have gone 4-0, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2, 2-2, 1-3, 2-2, 1-3.

In this year's case for certain, 3-1 would get back in the sequence. From 2009-2012 we enjoyed back and forth records of 4-0 and 2-2. Then from 2013 to recently, we endured back and forth records of 2-2 and 1-3. Both of these lasted exactly four years. If there is a new process, the return of 4-0 to be mixed with 2-2 again. Or 2-2 to be mixed with perhaps 3-1. Next season we host Pittsburgh and Cleveland. We should beat Pittsburgh, but Cleveland is hard to predict. But we go on the road against Baltimore and Cincinnati. We have a better chance to win in Cincinnati than Baltimore. Still, it's not a lock and we run the risk of losing one to either them or Cleveland and even both. So I do not feel confident in 3-1 next season. So, I say 4-0 or we stay in the same 2-2, 1-3 pattern.

What would you prefer? winning for AP and going 3-1 against the NFC North over 2-2. Or winning a statement game against Tom Brady and BB and going 4-0 against the AFC East instead of 2-2? What has an extra win? the AFC East. And those extra wins MATTER. Could we beat both, sure? But our playcaller would certainly have to have a plan dialed up before the season to keep the offense out of fatigue mode. Because no matter what, it will take offense to win week 2.

Now let's not think about starting out 0-2. Forget about it. That means the season is over and 7-9 could rear its ugly head again. I think the continuing pattern improves by one win, assuming no division sweeps against us, and breaking past habits gives us an extra win that exponentially improves our playoff odds. But not if we start out 0-2 again.

Guaranteed losses if 2-2:New England, @Buffalo

Now let's think about the home game after a home game. This has been a problem for us of late.

Last year, we had one instance of back to back home games. And we already addressed this. We know what games we are talking about. In 2015, we had two home sets. The first was week 8 and 9. We win at home against the giants in a shootout and avoid OT, only to miss the FG against Tennessee to lose in OT. Tennessee shut our O down for two quarters as well, and it could be stemming from their adjustments on top of the 51 points we scored the previous week. And let's not forget, we scored too fast. Then week 15 against Detroit. We do nothing until the second half, so we were not really gassed out when playing Jacksonville five and a half days later. And then there is 2014, we never had any back to back home games other than one where we had three in a row and we lost all three. SF was one we should have won, and all that energy into losing that game brought a flat team to play Cincinnati, and in turn play a rested ravens team, who we might have won without all of the injuries. Simply put we back up a easy home win with lesser effort against someone who proves to be a bigger challenge. Week 8 against Chicago should be a win, but how we win that depends. Blowing out a team who has less fight in them does not perpare us well to do the same thing against Tampa Bay week 9, who will most certainly be a contrasting difference from Chicago. And this is where we break the 4-4 conundrum or continue it if we do not start out 0-2.

Do something these two weeks we have not done since 2013, win back to back home games against two tones of teams.

Now let's get to the most important game besides starting out 1-1. That is week 11 against Washington. If we lose to TB week 9 and find ourselves 4-4 again and then 4-5, this is the game that makes or breaks a 8-10 win season. Losing this game can compare to 2014's week 11 loss to the bengals and the miriad of head scratching offensive blunders we have had recently against certain teams. The experts are picking us to lose this game right now. They know the history and are using it. This is a game where we need to begin to start having some fight and stop playing the lost season card. No question Norman and the pass rush will be a challenge, but in a winning season with the same circumstances, we would play hard against that. And remember, winning a same place matchup has increased playoff odds to 50% under SP. This is even a issue if we beat NE and Buffalo, because we could fall to 5-5.

I don't really care to talk much about LA. This game is not won without Washington imo. We would be losing three in a row under the first scenario going into this and that is trouble. So we have a choice of 8-8, 9-7, or 10-6 really. Week 11 dictates this matchup if we lose. The second scenario helps, but I don't believe we have ever won a road game without a home game under SP.

Division games........we got swept by Atlanta last year and Carolina the year before. It's pretty conclusive we will not get swept by either this year. Which leaves TB.....they CAN sweep us if we give them week 9. But I don't think they are a lock to. Our 7-9 patterns have been because of getting swept by a division rival every year we miss the playoffs and losing the same place matchups. Breaking one of these patterns improves by a win; breaking both improves by two. If we have a winning record late in the season, we will have a chance at sweeping either Atlanta or Carolina. That could mean beating Carolina week 3 foreshadows a change. If we are below .500, I think we don't sweep either.

Guaranteed loss:at least one against TB and one against Atlanta or Carolina.

Again, 7-9 is the floor. the ceiling is 13-3. How? beating both Minnesota and NE to constitute 7 wins against two divisions; beating Washington and LA; and going 4-2 in division. Doing the first two would pretty much make this extremely possible. So I have to break down how wins could play out for the other two scenarios I pointed out.

Scenario A-beating Minnesota
7-9, same old same old losses
8-8, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
9-7, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
10-6, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta or Carolina
11-5, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice

Scenario B-beating New England and Buffalo
8-8, same old same old losses
9-7, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
10-6, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
11-5, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta of Carolina
12-4, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice.

So where does the first test begin? Week 3 @Carolina. Week 9 against TB if we lose that.

Now I pretty much just addressed this team's game patterns. If the team has improved then they will not find themselves 4-4 after week 9 more than likely. But the process I listed is in the order based on all of the losing seasons, non-playoff seasons, and playoff seasons.


I have yet to read anything but I just wanted to reply beforehand and thank you for your brilliance.


Originally Posted by WillSaints81 View Post
The one thing that has me concerned is that there isn't much on the field noise to say we have improved, but it's preseason. The schedule is easier than last year however for not only last year's defense but for the offense. There are a few games though that should be easy but may not be easy. I am looking at week 1 and 2 big time.

The consensus is we will beat Minnesota because of AP, but is this really a guarantee? No. What is a guarantee is winning at least two games against the NFC North(because if we lose a third straight to Detroit at home off of a bye, we have problems). Numerically, we have been 2-2 or 3-1 against NFC divisions since Payton first arrived.......until last year. We were 4-0 last year. I expect two wins, but 3-1, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2 constitutes a jump if we don't beat Minnesota. But we want to start out 1-0 right?

Guaranteed loss vs NFC North:@Green Bay week 7

Now comes the toughest test........the AFC. We have just not been owning the AFC lately and I believe we beat Miami and NY. What happens week 2 will affect week 10. Week 2, we play the pats. This is more of a big game for Brees than week 1 at Minnesota. But does Payton understand this? Lately, saints tend to put on offensive displays against the wrong teams and fall flat the next week against the ones we should have taken more seriously. Five days rest following wins have been a detriment more than a benefit. We have not won MNF the last two seasons, but given week 12 and 13; week 1 and 2; week 6 and 7 of last year, we don't need to judge five days rest alone. The team simply performs poorly after a big game. This has nothing to do with defense being bad either as giants, lions, and chiefs were for the most part good defensive games. This is Payton's style of playing. His arrogance takes over when the purpose suits him. He does not seem to realize that this hurts the players. Playing big games on emotion was a pattern of 2006. Think of when we beat the eagles, and two weeks later we get crushed by the ravens. Yes, ravens were a top defense that year and we had issues off bye weeks then. Still, Carolina won in Baltimore those two weeks prior. Then we have a strong game in Pittsburgh we ultimately come out losing, and then we crap the bed at home against the bengals, nvm the fact Brees threw for over 500 yards. Dallas week 14 that season........a huge win that had people talking and finally considering us serious contenders for the SB. What happened after that week? 10 points against Washington. So this is nothing new it is a pattern that in 2009 began to dissipate, only to return in the losing seasons again. If the saints treat week 1 like a mini-super bowl, mark my words............

WE WILL COME OUT FLAT AT HOME AGAINST NEW ENGLAND

Here's something to consider, given we have not gone 3-1 against the AFC since 2008, and it would be a jump in this year's case, the likely scenario is continuing the back-and-forth records recently against the AFC which would be 2-2 this year. But we could pick up where we left off when we could beat the AFC. We went 4-0 in 2009 and 2011. This is considered to be a staple in our elite playoff run. If we are elite again, going 4-0 against the AFC could return. Since 2008, we have gone 4-0, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2, 2-2, 1-3, 2-2, 1-3.

In this year's case for certain, 3-1 would get back in the sequence. From 2009-2012 we enjoyed back and forth records of 4-0 and 2-2. Then from 2013 to recently, we endured back and forth records of 2-2 and 1-3. Both of these lasted exactly four years. If there is a new process, the return of 4-0 to be mixed with 2-2 again. Or 2-2 to be mixed with perhaps 3-1. Next season we host Pittsburgh and Cleveland. We should beat Pittsburgh, but Cleveland is hard to predict. But we go on the road against Baltimore and Cincinnati. We have a better chance to win in Cincinnati than Baltimore. Still, it's not a lock and we run the risk of losing one to either them or Cleveland and even both. So I do not feel confident in 3-1 next season. So, I say 4-0 or we stay in the same 2-2, 1-3 pattern.

What would you prefer? winning for AP and going 3-1 against the NFC North over 2-2. Or winning a statement game against Tom Brady and BB and going 4-0 against the AFC East instead of 2-2? What has an extra win? the AFC East. And those extra wins MATTER. Could we beat both, sure? But our playcaller would certainly have to have a plan dialed up before the season to keep the offense out of fatigue mode. Because no matter what, it will take offense to win week 2.

Now let's not think about starting out 0-2. Forget about it. That means the season is over and 7-9 could rear its ugly head again. I think the continuing pattern improves by one win, assuming no division sweeps against us, and breaking past habits gives us an extra win that exponentially improves our playoff odds. But not if we start out 0-2 again.

Guaranteed losses if 2-2:New England, @Buffalo

Now let's think about the home game after a home game. This has been a problem for us of late.

Last year, we had one instance of back to back home games. And we already addressed this. We know what games we are talking about. In 2015, we had two home sets. The first was week 8 and 9. We win at home against the giants in a shootout and avoid OT, only to miss the FG against Tennessee to lose in OT. Tennessee shut our O down for two quarters as well, and it could be stemming from their adjustments on top of the 51 points we scored the previous week. And let's not forget, we scored too fast. Then week 15 against Detroit. We do nothing until the second half, so we were not really gassed out when playing Jacksonville five and a half days later. And then there is 2014, we never had any back to back home games other than one where we had three in a row and we lost all three. SF was one we should have won, and all that energy into losing that game brought a flat team to play Cincinnati, and in turn play a rested ravens team, who we might have won without all of the injuries. Simply put we back up a easy home win with lesser effort against someone who proves to be a bigger challenge. Week 8 against Chicago should be a win, but how we win that depends. Blowing out a team who has less fight in them does not perpare us well to do the same thing against Tampa Bay week 9, who will most certainly be a contrasting difference from Chicago. And this is where we break the 4-4 conundrum or continue it if we do not start out 0-2.

Do something these two weeks we have not done since 2013, win back to back home games against two tones of teams.

Now let's get to the most important game besides starting out 1-1. That is week 11 against Washington. If we lose to TB week 9 and find ourselves 4-4 again and then 4-5, this is the game that makes or breaks a 8-10 win season. Losing this game can compare to 2014's week 11 loss to the bengals and the miriad of head scratching offensive blunders we have had recently against certain teams. The experts are picking us to lose this game right now. They know the history and are using it. This is a game where we need to begin to start having some fight and stop playing the lost season card. No question Norman and the pass rush will be a challenge, but in a winning season with the same circumstances, we would play hard against that. And remember, winning a same place matchup has increased playoff odds to 50% under SP. This is even a issue if we beat NE and Buffalo, because we could fall to 5-5.

I don't really care to talk much about LA. This game is not won without Washington imo. We would be losing three in a row under the first scenario going into this and that is trouble. So we have a choice of 8-8, 9-7, or 10-6 really. Week 11 dictates this matchup if we lose. The second scenario helps, but I don't believe we have ever won a road game without a home game under SP.

Division games........we got swept by Atlanta last year and Carolina the year before. It's pretty conclusive we will not get swept by either this year. Which leaves TB.....they CAN sweep us if we give them week 9. But I don't think they are a lock to. Our 7-9 patterns have been because of getting swept by a division rival every year we miss the playoffs and losing the same place matchups. Breaking one of these patterns improves by a win; breaking both improves by two. If we have a winning record late in the season, we will have a chance at sweeping either Atlanta or Carolina. That could mean beating Carolina week 3 foreshadows a change. If we are below .500, I think we don't sweep either.

Guaranteed loss:at least one against TB and one against Atlanta or Carolina.

Again, 7-9 is the floor. the ceiling is 13-3. How? beating both Minnesota and NE to constitute 7 wins against two divisions; beating Washington and LA; and going 4-2 in division. Doing the first two would pretty much make this extremely possible. So I have to break down how wins could play out for the other two scenarios I pointed out.

Scenario A-beating Minnesota
7-9, same old same old losses
8-8, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
9-7, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
10-6, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta or Carolina
11-5, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice

Scenario B-beating New England and Buffalo
8-8, same old same old losses
9-7, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
10-6, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
11-5, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta of Carolina
12-4, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice.

So where does the first test begin? Week 3 @Carolina. Week 9 against TB if we lose that.

Now I pretty much just addressed this team's game patterns. If the team has improved then they will not find themselves 4-4 after week 9 more than likely. But the process I listed is in the order based on all of the losing seasons, non-playoff seasons, and playoff seasons.

Let's see how many copies of the copies of the copies..........we can put on here so it takes 3 pages to read the last comment!

Rugby Saint II 08-20-2017 04:51 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido (Post 759755)
Haven't seen anything worth reading before now so I'm skipping this novella as a probable waste of time.


Go ahead and read it. All he's doing is giving us a history lesson. History is long and boring too but if we learn from history then we are not doomed to repeat our mistakes. I totally agree with his lengthy analysis!!! :biggun:

Edit: And I'm not going to nitpick his thinking process either........

AsylumGuido 08-20-2017 05:09 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II (Post 759901)
Go ahead and read it. All he's doing is giving us a history lesson. History is long and boring too but if we learn from history then we are not doomed to repeat our mistakes. I totally agree with his lengthy analysis!!! :biggun:

Edit: And I'm not going to nitpick his thinking process either........

History in football play means nothing. Zip. Zero. New players. New coaches. New opposition. New everything.

WillSaints81 09-09-2017 06:03 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
I didn't read this thread since I posted it. And Rugby I felt you were being sarcastic in that email.'

Laugh all you want but that has been the way the seasons have played out under SP.

Now I put more umph into this on SR. The two 4-0 vs AFC seasons have resulted in, wait for it, 13-3!

The seasons where we avoided sweeps by division rivals had records of 13-3, 11-5, 13-3, 11-5...........interesting could 13-3 be next in a winning season?

The seasons where we won both swing games included records of 10-6, 13-3, 11-5, and 11-5.

Now I might be retracting on Buffalo. They appear to be bad this season before it starts. So I feel now, I might pick us to lose to Miami. But I looked more at this........

Miami plays against our strengths and to our weaknesses. Miami has a strong pass rushing tandem of Wake and Suh. And I honestly wonder if the oline will do enough to protect Brees here. The defense will be asked to shut down Cutler because Miami is good somewhat against the run. Once you get past the defensive front of Miami you can pick them apart. Well, you could last year.

This means if we lose to NE Carolina is a must-win week 3.

But if we start out 1-3.........

We beat Detroit but I am only picking a win because of rest
We lose at GB, but we could win here. It's just ridiculous to pick a win here.
We beat Chicago
Now comes the point of us going 4-4 or 3-5 like in 2012 after the bucs.
If 4-4, we get over the hump(unless we are stupid) and beat Buffalo. 5-4

Now let's look at 4-5 or 5-4 from here.
First is 4-5
Washington-if we are below. 500, this becomes a pressure game. We lose this we go 4-6 to continue the trend.
Then, we lose at LA to go 4-7
Then we beat Carolina to go 5-7
Then we lose to Atlanta to go 5-8
We beat the jets and falcons to go 7-8, and then lose to playoff bound bucs to go 7-9.

IF we beat Washington week 11 we are 5-5
That will help us against the rams, but I feel still records too close so loss, 5-6
We beat Carolina 6-6
Now we have the chance to get over .500 for the first time in a while by beating Atlanta. Do we do it? 7-6 or 6-7
We beat the jets, 8-6 or 7-7
If we win the first Atlanta game, we could lose this one as record is too close but we could see the playoffs by just trying to win out...9-6 or 8-7
Now we go to TB last game, and if we are 8-7 it won't cut it. If we are 9-6 we have a reason...8-8 or 10-6.

Now 5-4.............
Confidence finally being above .500, do we give it back away against Washington? 6-4 or 5-5
That win, if so, will possibly lead to a run so we win in LA if that's the case. We lose if we lose. 7-4 or 5-6
We beat Carolina, 8-4 or 6-6
We win in Atlanta with 8-4, too close if 6-6. 9-4, 7-6, or 6-7
We beat the jets, 10-4, 8-6, or 7-7.
We sweep Atlanta at 10-4 and it's possible with 8-6 but that can go either way. 11-4, 9-6, or 8-7.
At TB, we have a chance at a first round bye if 11-4, playoffs at 9-6, nothing at 8-7. 12-4, 10-6, or 8-8.

This also illustrates my point we just never go 9-7. If it isn't 7-9 or 8-8, it's 10-6-13-3.

Another note of interest. The bucs last year went 4-2 in division and the season before that 3-3. There has also been sweeps with TB and Carolina dating back to 2009. And Atlanta since 2012 has gone 5-1 or 1-5 in division.

So what does that mean? TB could sweep BOTH Atlanta and Carolina, which means if that happens they won't sweep us because no team has ever gone 6-0 in this division.

Atlanta going 1-5 in division and Carolina going 2-4(likely under that scenario) certainly helps our odds a lot.

So we need to beat NE or Carolina to avoid all of the questions.

WW_Who_Dat 09-09-2017 10:09 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Need serious help here!

UK_WhoDat 09-10-2017 09:17 AM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by spkb25 (Post 759752)
Alright, alright, alright

That's a really long post with some analysis of something.

If we are going to lose always better to be an AFC opponent vs NFC.

Nuff said

hagan714 09-10-2017 10:08 AM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
I can accept a record of 2-2 going into week 5

Anything better I will be happy

1 - 3 all depends on how the saints played in those 3 losses.

0 - 4 is a hole seldom dig themselves out of no matter how well they played in those losses.

So many injuries last year and so many new faces for DA and SP. If we can get to week 8 healthy and playing at least .500 ball we should be sitting good. Once again stay healthy and the rotation down earl will speed up the gelling time

a lot of hand grenades and horse shoes before game 1 is even played

I t means that gel factor is well on its way and the saints should have a solid shot at closing out the season strong.

It is all about the month of December as always.

WillSaints81 09-10-2017 09:30 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by WW_Who_Dat (Post 763091)
Need serious help here!

What because I am breaking down our perpetual repeating patterns or breaking out out of it? Sorry but we have sucked vs AFC and lost all of our swing games the last three years. We have also been swept by at least one division rival per season in this stage. Everything I put there is what has heppened to us every year like it or not. Patterns happen to tell a team's story. I believe numbers going in a certain direction are a real thing.

You seem to think the saints will do something different with these trends if nothing's changed. If it's another losing season it' could be the same thing as before. If it's a winning season the records will change in some of these scenarios if not all.

I break down football this way because wins can never be predicted based on certain on the field metrics alone. It's a team sport and games are won with the mind more than physicality.

burningmetal 09-10-2017 10:11 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by WillSaints81 (Post 763207)
What because I am breaking down our perpetual repeating patterns or breaking out out of it? Sorry but we have sucked vs AFC and lost all of our swing games the last three years. We have also been swept by at least one division rival per season in this stage. Everything I put there is what has heppened to us every year like it or not. Patterns happen to tell a team's story. I believe numbers going in a certain direction are a real thing.

You seem to think the saints will do something different with these trends if nothing's changed. If it's another losing season it' could be the same thing as before. If it's a winning season the records will change in some of these scenarios if not all.

I break down football this way because wins can never be predicted based on certain on the field metrics alone. It's a team sport and games are won with the mind more than physicality.

Your analysis can be broken down much more quickly. We've been bad for three seasons in a row. That means we've been bad against MOST teams.

This naturally leads to what you call "trends", but in reality, the only trend is that we have three consecutive losing seasons. When you're good, your record goes up against everyone. If you had just one, MAYBE two things that stood out as glaring repeated occurrences, it might be more of a noteworthy discussion, but you gave so many different "trends" that they really all sort of negate themselves. It's called losing. This year, we hope to change that.

RockyMountainSaint 09-11-2017 12:45 AM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Seer1 (Post 759813)
Anal what?

Yeah,
I don't see the networks broadcasting anyone's season getting an Analyzation.

Maybe Skinemax can do a Hard Knocks kind of thing?

Crusader 09-11-2017 03:06 AM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido (Post 759904)
History in football play means nothing. Zip. Zero. New players. New coaches. New opposition. New everything.

This is the best point in the whole thread. Even with the exact same players you never play the same team twice. And we have had a lot of turnover the last couple of years. Not a ton of players left from the first 7-9 season three years ago, I think this year will be different, but not because of patterns and trends.

|Mitch| 09-11-2017 09:06 AM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by WillSaints81 (Post 763207)
What because I am breaking down our perpetual repeating patterns or breaking out out of it? Sorry but we have sucked vs AFC and lost all of our swing games the last three years. We have also been swept by at least one division rival per season in this stage. Everything I put there is what has heppened to us every year like it or not. Patterns happen to tell a team's story. I believe numbers going in a certain direction are a real thing.

You seem to think the saints will do something different with these trends if nothing's changed. If it's another losing season it' could be the same thing as before. If it's a winning season the records will change in some of these scenarios if not all.

I break down football this way because wins can never be predicted based on certain on the field metrics alone. It's a team sport and games are won with the mind more than physicality.

Why don't you call and let Payton know? I'm sure he hasn't thought of nothing like this and apparently you know more than they do! :rolleyes:

OldMaid 09-11-2017 09:23 AM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Ok, see if those predictions some of you made will be true.

Interesting.
No negatives from me.
Start of the season for me is exciting. You are encouraged by any good plays you see on the field. Hope.
Now, early November, ugh.....another story.

vpheughan 09-11-2017 02:10 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Once again, everyone make a copy of the copy of the copy and start a Poll on how many Hours, Minutes and Seconds it takes to open the "next thread"

SaintFanInATLHELL 12-03-2017 08:40 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Just a brief reminder of how effective a prognosticator Will is. As he points out in my thread he can say whatever the **** he wants. However, it doesn't show that whatever he says isn't crap.

Yet after only losing 3 games, being 3-0 in the division, and sweeping the Kitties, he's back the day of the Kitties sweep on week 13 still projecting that the Saints have no chance of going 6-0 in the division because it's never happened before.

So just be careful not to get to get a whiff of whatever gets him to generate the massive tombs of discussion like the two below.

SFIAH


Quote:

Originally Posted by WillSaints81 (Post 759750)
August 20, 2017:
The one thing that has me concerned is that there isn't much on the field noise to say we have improved, but it's preseason. The schedule is easier than last year however for not only last year's defense but for the offense. There are a few games though that should be easy but may not be easy. I am looking at week 1 and 2 big time.

The consensus is we will beat Minnesota because of AP, but is this really a guarantee? No. What is a guarantee is winning at least two games against the NFC North(because if we lose a third straight to Detroit at home off of a bye, we have problems). Numerically, we have been 2-2 or 3-1 against NFC divisions since Payton first arrived.......until last year. We were 4-0 last year. I expect two wins, but 3-1, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2 constitutes a jump if we don't beat Minnesota. But we want to start out 1-0 right?

Guaranteed loss vs NFC North:@Green Bay week 7

Now comes the toughest test........the AFC. We have just not been owning the AFC lately and I believe we beat Miami and NY. What happens week 2 will affect week 10. Week 2, we play the pats. This is more of a big game for Brees than week 1 at Minnesota. But does Payton understand this? Lately, saints tend to put on offensive displays against the wrong teams and fall flat the next week against the ones we should have taken more seriously. Five days rest following wins have been a detriment more than a benefit. We have not won MNF the last two seasons, but given week 12 and 13; week 1 and 2; week 6 and 7 of last year, we don't need to judge five days rest alone. The team simply performs poorly after a big game. This has nothing to do with defense being bad either as giants, lions, and chiefs were for the most part good defensive games. This is Payton's style of playing. His arrogance takes over when the purpose suits him. He does not seem to realize that this hurts the players. Playing big games on emotion was a pattern of 2006. Think of when we beat the eagles, and two weeks later we get crushed by the ravens. Yes, ravens were a top defense that year and we had issues off bye weeks then. Still, Carolina won in Baltimore those two weeks prior. Then we have a strong game in Pittsburgh we ultimately come out losing, and then we crap the bed at home against the bengals, nvm the fact Brees threw for over 500 yards. Dallas week 14 that season........a huge win that had people talking and finally considering us serious contenders for the SB. What happened after that week? 10 points against Washington. So this is nothing new it is a pattern that in 2009 began to dissipate, only to return in the losing seasons again. If the saints treat week 1 like a mini-super bowl, mark my words............

WE WILL COME OUT FLAT AT HOME AGAINST NEW ENGLAND

Here's something to consider, given we have not gone 3-1 against the AFC since 2008, and it would be a jump in this year's case, the likely scenario is continuing the back-and-forth records recently against the AFC which would be 2-2 this year. But we could pick up where we left off when we could beat the AFC. We went 4-0 in 2009 and 2011. This is considered to be a staple in our elite playoff run. If we are elite again, going 4-0 against the AFC could return. Since 2008, we have gone 4-0, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2, 2-2, 1-3, 2-2, 1-3.

In this year's case for certain, 3-1 would get back in the sequence. From 2009-2012 we enjoyed back and forth records of 4-0 and 2-2. Then from 2013 to recently, we endured back and forth records of 2-2 and 1-3. Both of these lasted exactly four years. If there is a new process, the return of 4-0 to be mixed with 2-2 again. Or 2-2 to be mixed with perhaps 3-1. Next season we host Pittsburgh and Cleveland. We should beat Pittsburgh, but Cleveland is hard to predict. But we go on the road against Baltimore and Cincinnati. We have a better chance to win in Cincinnati than Baltimore. Still, it's not a lock and we run the risk of losing one to either them or Cleveland and even both. So I do not feel confident in 3-1 next season. So, I say 4-0 or we stay in the same 2-2, 1-3 pattern.

What would you prefer? winning for AP and going 3-1 against the NFC North over 2-2. Or winning a statement game against Tom Brady and BB and going 4-0 against the AFC East instead of 2-2? What has an extra win? the AFC East. And those extra wins MATTER. Could we beat both, sure? But our playcaller would certainly have to have a plan dialed up before the season to keep the offense out of fatigue mode. Because no matter what, it will take offense to win week 2.

Now let's not think about starting out 0-2. Forget about it. That means the season is over and 7-9 could rear its ugly head again. I think the continuing pattern improves by one win, assuming no division sweeps against us, and breaking past habits gives us an extra win that exponentially improves our playoff odds. But not if we start out 0-2 again.

Guaranteed losses if 2-2:New England, @Buffalo

Now let's think about the home game after a home game. This has been a problem for us of late.

Last year, we had one instance of back to back home games. And we already addressed this. We know what games we are talking about. In 2015, we had two home sets. The first was week 8 and 9. We win at home against the giants in a shootout and avoid OT, only to miss the FG against Tennessee to lose in OT. Tennessee shut our O down for two quarters as well, and it could be stemming from their adjustments on top of the 51 points we scored the previous week. And let's not forget, we scored too fast. Then week 15 against Detroit. We do nothing until the second half, so we were not really gassed out when playing Jacksonville five and a half days later. And then there is 2014, we never had any back to back home games other than one where we had three in a row and we lost all three. SF was one we should have won, and all that energy into losing that game brought a flat team to play Cincinnati, and in turn play a rested ravens team, who we might have won without all of the injuries. Simply put we back up a easy home win with lesser effort against someone who proves to be a bigger challenge. Week 8 against Chicago should be a win, but how we win that depends. Blowing out a team who has less fight in them does not perpare us well to do the same thing against Tampa Bay week 9, who will most certainly be a contrasting difference from Chicago. And this is where we break the 4-4 conundrum or continue it if we do not start out 0-2.

Do something these two weeks we have not done since 2013, win back to back home games against two tones of teams.

Now let's get to the most important game besides starting out 1-1. That is week 11 against Washington. If we lose to TB week 9 and find ourselves 4-4 again and then 4-5, this is the game that makes or breaks a 8-10 win season. Losing this game can compare to 2014's week 11 loss to the bengals and the miriad of head scratching offensive blunders we have had recently against certain teams. The experts are picking us to lose this game right now. They know the history and are using it. This is a game where we need to begin to start having some fight and stop playing the lost season card. No question Norman and the pass rush will be a challenge, but in a winning season with the same circumstances, we would play hard against that. And remember, winning a same place matchup has increased playoff odds to 50% under SP. This is even a issue if we beat NE and Buffalo, because we could fall to 5-5.

I don't really care to talk much about LA. This game is not won without Washington imo. We would be losing three in a row under the first scenario going into this and that is trouble. So we have a choice of 8-8, 9-7, or 10-6 really. Week 11 dictates this matchup if we lose. The second scenario helps, but I don't believe we have ever won a road game without a home game under SP.

Division games........we got swept by Atlanta last year and Carolina the year before. It's pretty conclusive we will not get swept by either this year. Which leaves TB.....they CAN sweep us if we give them week 9. But I don't think they are a lock to. Our 7-9 patterns have been because of getting swept by a division rival every year we miss the playoffs and losing the same place matchups. Breaking one of these patterns improves by a win; breaking both improves by two. If we have a winning record late in the season, we will have a chance at sweeping either Atlanta or Carolina. That could mean beating Carolina week 3 foreshadows a change. If we are below .500, I think we don't sweep either.

Guaranteed loss:at least one against TB and one against Atlanta or Carolina.

Again, 7-9 is the floor. the ceiling is 13-3. How? beating both Minnesota and NE to constitute 7 wins against two divisions; beating Washington and LA; and going 4-2 in division. Doing the first two would pretty much make this extremely possible. So I have to break down how wins could play out for the other two scenarios I pointed out.

Scenario A-beating Minnesota
7-9, same old same old losses
8-8, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
9-7, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
10-6, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta or Carolina
11-5, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice

Scenario B-beating New England and Buffalo
8-8, same old same old losses
9-7, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
10-6, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
11-5, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta of Carolina
12-4, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice.

So where does the first test begin? Week 3 @Carolina. Week 9 against TB if we lose that.

Now I pretty much just addressed this team's game patterns. If the team has improved then they will not find themselves 4-4 after week 9 more than likely. But the process I listed is in the order based on all of the losing seasons, non-playoff seasons, and playoff seasons.

Quote:

Originally Posted by WillSaints81 (Post 763078)
September 9, 2017:
I didn't read this thread since I posted it. And Rugby I felt you were being sarcastic in that email.'

Laugh all you want but that has been the way the seasons have played out under SP.

Now I put more umph into this on SR. The two 4-0 vs AFC seasons have resulted in, wait for it, 13-3!

The seasons where we avoided sweeps by division rivals had records of 13-3, 11-5, 13-3, 11-5...........interesting could 13-3 be next in a winning season?

The seasons where we won both swing games included records of 10-6, 13-3, 11-5, and 11-5.

Now I might be retracting on Buffalo. They appear to be bad this season before it starts. So I feel now, I might pick us to lose to Miami. But I looked more at this........

Miami plays against our strengths and to our weaknesses. Miami has a strong pass rushing tandem of Wake and Suh. And I honestly wonder if the oline will do enough to protect Brees here. The defense will be asked to shut down Cutler because Miami is good somewhat against the run. Once you get past the defensive front of Miami you can pick them apart. Well, you could last year.

This means if we lose to NE Carolina is a must-win week 3.

But if we start out 1-3.........

We beat Detroit but I am only picking a win because of rest
We lose at GB, but we could win here. It's just ridiculous to pick a win here.
We beat Chicago
Now comes the point of us going 4-4 or 3-5 like in 2012 after the bucs.
If 4-4, we get over the hump(unless we are stupid) and beat Buffalo. 5-4

Now let's look at 4-5 or 5-4 from here.
First is 4-5
Washington-if we are below. 500, this becomes a pressure game. We lose this we go 4-6 to continue the trend.
Then, we lose at LA to go 4-7
Then we beat Carolina to go 5-7
Then we lose to Atlanta to go 5-8
We beat the jets and falcons to go 7-8, and then lose to playoff bound bucs to go 7-9.

IF we beat Washington week 11 we are 5-5
That will help us against the rams, but I feel still records too close so loss, 5-6
We beat Carolina 6-6
Now we have the chance to get over .500 for the first time in a while by beating Atlanta. Do we do it? 7-6 or 6-7
We beat the jets, 8-6 or 7-7
If we win the first Atlanta game, we could lose this one as record is too close but we could see the playoffs by just trying to win out...9-6 or 8-7
Now we go to TB last game, and if we are 8-7 it won't cut it. If we are 9-6 we have a reason...8-8 or 10-6.

Now 5-4.............
Confidence finally being above .500, do we give it back away against Washington? 6-4 or 5-5
That win, if so, will possibly lead to a run so we win in LA if that's the case. We lose if we lose. 7-4 or 5-6
We beat Carolina, 8-4 or 6-6
We win in Atlanta with 8-4, too close if 6-6. 9-4, 7-6, or 6-7
We beat the jets, 10-4, 8-6, or 7-7.
We sweep Atlanta at 10-4 and it's possible with 8-6 but that can go either way. 11-4, 9-6, or 8-7.
At TB, we have a chance at a first round bye if 11-4, playoffs at 9-6, nothing at 8-7. 12-4, 10-6, or 8-8.

This also illustrates my point we just never go 9-7. If it isn't 7-9 or 8-8, it's 10-6-13-3.

Another note of interest. The bucs last year went 4-2 in division and the season before that 3-3. There has also been sweeps with TB and Carolina dating back to 2009. And Atlanta since 2012 has gone 5-1 or 1-5 in division.

So what does that mean? TB could sweep BOTH Atlanta and Carolina, which means if that happens they won't sweep us because no team has ever gone 6-0 in this division.

Atlanta going 1-5 in division and Carolina going 2-4(likely under that scenario) certainly helps our odds a lot.

So we need to beat NE or Carolina to avoid all of the questions.


Halo 12-03-2017 08:52 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Damn, dis "Analyzation" thing is better than an Analysis!

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view2/482...-shocked-o.gif

AsylumGuido 12-03-2017 08:54 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL (Post 780191)
Just a brief reminder of how effective a prognosticator Will is. As he points out in my thread he can say whatever the **** he wants. However, it doesn't show that whatever he says isn't crap.

Yet after only losing 3 games, being 3-0 in the division, and sweeping the Kitties, he's back the day of the Kitties sweep on week 13 still projecting that the Saints have no chance of going 6-0 in the division because it's never happened before.

So just be careful not to get to get a whiff of whatever gets him to generate the massive tombs of discussion like the two below.

SFIAH

Will(Insert Team Name Here)81 has diarrhea of the fingers.

WW_Who_Dat 12-03-2017 09:05 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido (Post 780199)
Will(Insert Team Name Here)81 has diarrhea of the fingers.

Its what you smell when around an A**hat and their opinion.

ScottF 12-03-2017 09:07 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Tobias Funke, Analyst and therapist.

The Dude 12-04-2017 03:25 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
I say let him keep going. We have been winning ever since he started. No reason to stop now.

AsylumGuido 12-04-2017 03:33 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by The Dude (Post 780331)
I say let him keep going. We have been winning ever since he started. No reason to stop now.

16-3 Baby!

:bng:

44Champs 12-04-2017 05:24 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...69ceaa7c03.jpg

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

frydaddy 12-04-2017 05:48 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 44Champs (Post 780350)
.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...69ceaa7c03.jpg

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

Lmfao. I wish I could stop laughing at this..but, I can't

WillSaints81 12-04-2017 06:01 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
You pull up a post that was before the season even started and use it against me?

I'm sure we all saw a Rodgers injury happening week 7, which had that not happened, we would have been 4-3 against the bucs. Also, when the saints went 0-2 there were press reports saying they could not go 0-3. The 0-2 start woke them up, along with two games to help the defense. Miami is not a good team and was not when we played them either.

I certainly did not have us losing to Detroit and Chicago. Minnesota and Green Bay were virtually trade-offs.

I did get the bills game wrong, but let's wait until after the jets game to see if that is another trade-off. The point was not who we lost to, it's the records.

Trust me when I say this, we would not have come back and beaten Washington if we were 4-5 going into that game. A winning record was why we played harder. The team the last few years simply gave up emotionally and didn't care. In fact this whole season has exposed the saints the last two years where they never tried hard enough to win the tough games. They are only doing it now because they have a top ten defense(pull up that post why don't you since I basically said the team needed a top 10, NOT a top 20).

Everything I said was not a certain prediction it was questioning if we would get over the hump. Would we continue going 7-9 with 0-2 swing records and losing/.500 division records along with turning 4-4 into 4-6 or would we change things by undoing those things. We were never at risk for 4-4 week 9 because Rodgers got hurt and gave us a free win against the packers. I didn't expect us to get swept by Carolina because it was too soon and didn't expect Atlanta because of the recent history, so if anyone was going to sweep us should we have had another one of those seasons it was going to be TB. And it was that win that signified playoffs to me as I even pointed out the bucs was a must-win. The Washington game became a determination of if we were going to be a division winner or wild card team.

WillSaints81 12-04-2017 06:03 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by The Dude (Post 780331)
I say let him keep going. We have been winning ever since he started. No reason to stop now.


We have not been winning since I have posted stuff like this. I even picked us to win when we started the streak. I have been way too busy to even post enough on here. Don't you even dare try to discredit me as not wanting the team to win. It makes you look like a sh*tty fan like Atlanta's fans.

saintsfan1976 12-04-2017 06:41 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
You had me a 14 paragraphs.

WhoDat!656 12-04-2017 06:50 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 

frydaddy 12-04-2017 07:11 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 44Champs (Post 780350)
.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...69ceaa7c03.jpg

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

Quote:

Originally Posted by WillSaints81 (Post 780358)
Kfjrnfjrjdjfjfjdjdjrjdjdjekeinfiemdnfhfieksmcbcjsjaiqirhdnskshdndjshdkskakwbdndndkwndndjdisidjdiwiejdkdkaowjdnfkdismdjdjeodjwmejdidifjeidneidjdntjynyyiriei48eoqjdnt9rir85iejdn

7hej3idndkeieiskdifnfkdidjdkekeidjdid892jebrvtiebriekdjf7ridbd8tjejdifj4jdid8fiendidjrbd8e9wjsks8wjeif8tjdid8rjdidjejdjejdk48djdkak29ejdjisiia9wjwksj

Ndiejdjdoejdididufyfhdhfgfbd8877rhejsnsiw9jbd8wi26tgk9hdhd838rgvdwywgsk985hrowndhe8ejsiw9wobheisisi

A visual representation of how I read his posts.

Danno 12-04-2017 07:14 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Analyzation?

AsylumGuido 12-04-2017 07:20 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by WillSaints81 (Post 780357)
You pull up a post that was before the season even started and use it against me?

I'm sure we all saw a Rodgers injury happening week 7, which had that not happened, we would have been 4-3 against the bucs. Also, when the saints went 0-2 there were press reports saying they could not go 0-3. The 0-2 start woke them up, along with two games to help the defense. Miami is not a good team and was not when we played them either.

I certainly did not have us losing to Detroit and Chicago. Minnesota and Green Bay were virtually trade-offs.

I did get the bills game wrong, but let's wait until after the jets game to see if that is another trade-off. The point was not who we lost to, it's the records.

Trust me when I say this, we would not have come back and beaten Washington if we were 4-5 going into that game. A winning record was why we played harder. The team the last few years simply gave up emotionally and didn't care. In fact this whole season has exposed the saints the last two years where they never tried hard enough to win the tough games. They are only doing it now because they have a top ten defense(pull up that post why don't you since I basically said the team needed a top 10, NOT a top 20).

Everything I said was not a certain prediction it was questioning if we would get over the hump. Would we continue going 7-9 with 0-2 swing records and losing/.500 division records along with turning 4-4 into 4-6 or would we change things by undoing those things. We were never at risk for 4-4 week 9 because Rodgers got hurt and gave us a free win against the packers. I didn't expect us to get swept by Carolina because it was too soon and didn't expect Atlanta because of the recent history, so if anyone was going to sweep us should we have had another one of those seasons it was going to be TB. And it was that win that signified playoffs to me as I even pointed out the bucs was a must-win. The Washington game became a determination of if we were going to be a division winner or wild card team.

Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, more crap, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, stupidity, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, "I have diarrhea fingers", blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, need a cat gif, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, recent history has me weirded out, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, and finally ... so full of ultra refined human waste.

Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah ... :rolleyes:

hitta 12-04-2017 07:22 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Danno (Post 780387)
Analyzation?

It is surprisingly a word.

AsylumGuido 12-04-2017 07:31 PM

Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by hitta (Post 780394)
It is surprisingly a word.

In this concept it most likely refers to the source of the information attempted to be provided.

Analyzation - Pulling meaningless information from one's anus.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:44 AM.


Copyright 1997 - 2020 - BlackandGold.com