It's still just the preseason, but the Saints have played three quality games now; Is it OK to hope?

SaintFanInATLHELL · 08-28-2017, 08:41 AM

Originally Posted by jeanpierre

We'll know by Week Four what we've got...

I'm just not so sure about that. We go into the bye 4-0 then we know what we have. But 3 road games, and a date with the champs doesn't mean that anything less is by definition a bust.

Every season has 6 division games, 12 conference games (6 division, 4 outside NFC division (NFC North this year), and 2 record placement (LA Rams,Washington)), and 4 AFC outside division (AFC East) games each year. Priority never changes because of tiebreakers. Specifically in order:

0. Overall record
1. Head to head
2. Division games
3. Common opponents
4. Conference games

So the 10 critical games each season are the 6 conference games, and the 4 outside NFC division games as the 6 division games affect every category, and the other 4 affect every category except division games. So let's look at the first 4 games:

@Minnesota (outside NFC division)
New England (AFC)
@Carolina (Division)
@Miami (AFC)

The two AFC games only affect categories 0 and 3. Minnesota affects all but 2. Carolina affects all 5 categories. So Carolina is the must win, Minnesota nearly so, and the two AFC games not so much.

Point is that 3-1 or even 2-2 may not be too damaging depending on the mix of wins and losses.

The Saints season is the final 7 games. 4 division, 6 conference, 5 common opponents. That's winning time.

SFIAH

Danno · 08-28-2017, 05:03 PM

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL

Point is that 3-1 or even 2-2 may not be too damaging depending on the mix of wins and losses.

The Saints season is the final 7 games. 4 division, 6 conference, 5 common opponents. That's winning time.

SFIAH

Looking at the schedule objectively 2-2 after four is probably the odds on bet.

I'm thinking 10-6 is likely, 11-5 wouldn't surprise me, 9-7 would be disappointing.

So if we go 2-2 after 4, I expect 8-4 after that easily (barring excessive injuries like last year)

SaintFanInATLHELL · 08-28-2017, 06:10 PM

Originally Posted by Danno

Looking at the schedule objectively 2-2 after four is probably the odds on bet.

Probably, even though the best 2-2 would be losses in the 2 AFC games, which I believe is unlikely. I also wouldn't be thrilled with either starting 0-2 with a must win situation on the road against Carolina, or any scenario that includes a Carolina loss.

So while 2-2 may be an objective peak, I'm pinning my hopes on a 3-1 start with wins both in Minnesota and Carolina.

I'm thinking 10-6 is likely, 11-5 wouldn't surprise me, 9-7 would be disappointing.

Agreed. 9-7 means faltering down the stretch. That would not be good.

So if we go 2-2 after 4, I expect 8-4 after that easily (barring excessive injuries like last year)

I'm going with 3-1 to start and 9-3 to finish with at least a 5-1 record in the division. I agree with others that the defense is passing the eyeball test. I don't see the Saints having 4 minute drill problems this season as in the past. More of those "Oops!" losses will be "Yeah Baby!" wins.

SFIAH

WillMacKenzie · 08-28-2017, 06:14 PM

Originally Posted by Danno

Looking at the schedule objectively 2-2 after four is probably the odds on bet.

I'm thinking 10-6 is likely, 11-5 wouldn't surprise me, 9-7 would be disappointing.

So if we go 2-2 after 4, I expect 8-4 after that easily (barring excessive injuries like last year)

I think 2-2 out of the gate is the key, no less for sure. And I think they may even surprise with more, the way they're improved on special teams as well!

SaintFanInATLHELL · 08-28-2017, 06:26 PM

Originally Posted by WillMacKenzie

I think 2-2 out of the gate is the key, no less for sure. And I think they may even surprise with more, the way they're improved on special teams as well!

Maybe some are giving Miami more props than they deserve. I just don't chalk up playing Cutler on a neutral field as an L.

Given that, and the presumption of a L to the Pats (which personally I'm not ready to concede), then a 2-2 record means a loss to either the Panthers or the Vikes. Both are tough as they are road games. And both have formidable defenses. But what exactly do the 2-2 callers see in these two squads that chalks up either as a definite loss?

That's why I believe in the 3-1 start. While I concede that the game against the Pats is going to be tough, I'm not giving up on any of the three road games until the final score is in. Looks to 2013. Brees' offense + improved defense = wins.

3 road wins point up with a bullet.

SFIAH

08-28-2017, 08:41 AM	#1
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,789	Re: It's still just the preseason, but the Saints have played three quality games now; Is it OK to hope? Originally Posted by jeanpierre We'll know by Week Four what we've got... I'm just not so sure about that. We go into the bye 4-0 then we know what we have. But 3 road games, and a date with the champs doesn't mean that anything less is by definition a bust. Every season has 6 division games, 12 conference games (6 division, 4 outside NFC division (NFC North this year), and 2 record placement (LA Rams,Washington)), and 4 AFC outside division (AFC East) games each year. Priority never changes because of tiebreakers. Specifically in order: 0. Overall record 1. Head to head 2. Division games 3. Common opponents 4. Conference games So the 10 critical games each season are the 6 conference games, and the 4 outside NFC division games as the 6 division games affect every category, and the other 4 affect every category except division games. So let's look at the first 4 games: @Minnesota (outside NFC division) New England (AFC) @Carolina (Division) @Miami (AFC) The two AFC games only affect categories 0 and 3. Minnesota affects all but 2. Carolina affects all 5 categories. So Carolina is the must win, Minnesota nearly so, and the two AFC games not so much. Point is that 3-1 or even 2-2 may not be too damaging depending on the mix of wins and losses. The Saints season is the final 7 games. 4 division, 6 conference, 5 common opponents. That's winning time. SFIAH Danno, hagan714, foreverfan and 2 others like this.
	Super Bowl Championships: New Orleans Saints:1, Carolina:0, Atlanta Chokers: STILL ZERO Only Atlanta choked in an unchokable situation... Life is definitely good.

08-28-2017, 05:03 PM	#2
Danno Truth Addict Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Spanish Fort, AL (via NO and B/R) Posts: 24,758	Re: It's still just the preseason, but the Saints have played three quality games now; Is it OK to hope? Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL Point is that 3-1 or even 2-2 may not be too damaging depending on the mix of wins and losses. The Saints season is the final 7 games. 4 division, 6 conference, 5 common opponents. That's winning time. SFIAH Looking at the schedule objectively 2-2 after four is probably the odds on bet. I'm thinking 10-6 is likely, 11-5 wouldn't surprise me, 9-7 would be disappointing. So if we go 2-2 after 4, I expect 8-4 after that easily (barring excessive injuries like last year) WillMacKenzie likes this.

08-28-2017, 06:10 PM	#3
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,789	Re: It's still just the preseason, but the Saints have played three quality games now; Is it OK to hope? Originally Posted by Danno Looking at the schedule objectively 2-2 after four is probably the odds on bet. Probably, even though the best 2-2 would be losses in the 2 AFC games, which I believe is unlikely. I also wouldn't be thrilled with either starting 0-2 with a must win situation on the road against Carolina, or any scenario that includes a Carolina loss. So while 2-2 may be an objective peak, I'm pinning my hopes on a 3-1 start with wins both in Minnesota and Carolina. I'm thinking 10-6 is likely, 11-5 wouldn't surprise me, 9-7 would be disappointing. Agreed. 9-7 means faltering down the stretch. That would not be good. So if we go 2-2 after 4, I expect 8-4 after that easily (barring excessive injuries like last year) I'm going with 3-1 to start and 9-3 to finish with at least a 5-1 record in the division. I agree with others that the defense is passing the eyeball test. I don't see the Saints having 4 minute drill problems this season as in the past. More of those "Oops!" losses will be "Yeah Baby!" wins. SFIAH
	Super Bowl Championships: New Orleans Saints:1, Carolina:0, Atlanta Chokers: STILL ZERO Only Atlanta choked in an unchokable situation... Life is definitely good.

08-28-2017, 06:14 PM	#4
WillMacKenzie 1000 Posts + Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 1,627	Re: It's still just the preseason, but the Saints have played three quality games now; Is it OK to hope? Originally Posted by Danno Looking at the schedule objectively 2-2 after four is probably the odds on bet. I'm thinking 10-6 is likely, 11-5 wouldn't surprise me, 9-7 would be disappointing. So if we go 2-2 after 4, I expect 8-4 after that easily (barring excessive injuries like last year) I think 2-2 out of the gate is the key, no less for sure. And I think they may even surprise with more, the way they're improved on special teams as well!

08-28-2017, 06:26 PM	#5
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,789	Re: It's still just the preseason, but the Saints have played three quality games now; Is it OK to hope? Originally Posted by WillMacKenzie I think 2-2 out of the gate is the key, no less for sure. And I think they may even surprise with more, the way they're improved on special teams as well! Maybe some are giving Miami more props than they deserve. I just don't chalk up playing Cutler on a neutral field as an L. Given that, and the presumption of a L to the Pats (which personally I'm not ready to concede), then a 2-2 record means a loss to either the Panthers or the Vikes. Both are tough as they are road games. And both have formidable defenses. But what exactly do the 2-2 callers see in these two squads that chalks up either as a definite loss? That's why I believe in the 3-1 start. While I concede that the game against the Pats is going to be tough, I'm not giving up on any of the three road games until the final score is in. Looks to 2013. Brees' offense + improved defense = wins. 3 road wins point up with a bullet. SFIAH spkb25 likes this.
	Super Bowl Championships: New Orleans Saints:1, Carolina:0, Atlanta Chokers: STILL ZERO Only Atlanta choked in an unchokable situation... Life is definitely good.

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