And so it begins...

Beastmode · 08-13-2019, 12:39 PM

The third to last column is RB performance based on his current age.

K Major · 08-13-2019, 12:46 PM

I don't think this was posted so thought I'd share RB stats from p/s game #1.

Dwayne Washington 8 att 36 yards yds/att 4.5 Long - 12
Jaquizz Rodgers 5 att 15 yards yds/att 3.0 Long - 5
Alvin Kamara 4 att 11 yards yds/att 2.8 Long - 5
Devin Ozigbo 3 att 20 yards yds/att 6.7 Long - 11
Mr. Hurt (Murray) 3 att 14 yards yds/att 4.7 Long - 6

AsylumGuido · 08-13-2019, 01:14 PM

Originally Posted by Beastmode

He's hurt now and at an age associated with RB decline / slower recovery.

Nothing personal. Hope he beats the the odds but those odds are low.

What makes you think he's hurt now? He had a minor ankle procedure done just after the end of last season. Probably cleaning up some old scar tissue or such. That doesn't make him hurt. Recovering is not being hurt, but will still have a player miss some practice time. He's obviously recovered to the point that Payton has given him the go. It doesn't mean "he's hurt now".

Well, do we have the bet? If you're so positive Murray won't last the season then you should be confident that Ozigbo will have more carries the final eight weeks of the season than Murray, right?

Beastmode · 08-13-2019, 01:27 PM

There is a high probability he will not make it to the finish line. Are you saying that is false. If so, I want to know what data you are using. A rational person, using real data, can see what happens when a RB is closer to 30 at the start of a season. It rarely works out. Almost never.

I don't know what his current ailments are, Payton has been vague about it but he is dealing with something and the season has not started.

If you want to crown him then crown him. I will also let you off the hook if it goes the path of law of averages.

AsylumGuido · 08-13-2019, 02:45 PM

Originally Posted by Beastmode

The third to last column is RB performance based on his current age.

Here's where your interpretation of the data is skewed. This chart demonstrates performance by season. This is Latavius Murray's SIXTH NFL season. According to your chart he has this season AND next season, his SEVENTH, to fall within the high performance area of the data distribution.

Edit: Actually, I was incorrect ... according to your chart this should be basically tied for the third most production season of his career (the 6th column). So, according to your chart he has two full seasons of high production AFTER 2019!

AsylumGuido · 08-13-2019, 02:52 PM

Originally Posted by Beastmode

There is a high probability he will not make it to the finish line. Are you saying that is false. If so, I want to know what data you are using. A rational person, using real data, can see what happens when a RB is closer to 30 at the start of a season. It rarely works out. Almost never.

I don't know what his current ailments are, Payton has been vague about it but he is dealing with something and the season has not started.

If you want to crown him then crown him. I will also let you off the hook if it goes the path of law of averages.

Payton is vague about everything this time of year. But, the fact is he is practicing now and played in the first preseason game. If he was truly still dealing with an injury there is no way he would have been out there on the field. You stated "he is dealing with something," but that is where you are wrong. "he was dealing with something". Big difference.

AsylumGuido · 08-13-2019, 02:59 PM

One more thing, Beast ... what is the source for your data chart? What time period does it cover? Is it based upon all RB's, starting RB's, RB's that share carries via committee? Murray has been in a committee based offense his entire career. FAR less wear and tear. I have worked with data and numbers for decades and know how misleading data can be if not observed in the proper context.

Beastmode · 08-13-2019, 03:24 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

One more thing, Beast ... what is the source for your data chart? What time period does it cover? Is it based upon all RB's, starting RB's, RB's that share carries via committee? Murray has been in a committee based offense his entire career. FAR less wear and tear. I have worked with data and numbers for decades and know how misleading data can be if not observed in the proper context.

I'm a project manager. All I do is work with data, risks and probability. Has nothing to do with anything though because if you do a basic search for the performance of RB's by age, it will bring up 50 sites stating the same thing; Once they hit 29 plus their performance drops off a cliff, not some gradual slope. Some have bunked that but it's almost nobody. The probability of him making it the whole season and killing it is almost zero. It's maybe 3-4% that happens but go ahead and believe what you want.

You are betting on the 5th horse in the 6th race. There is a song about it called Chips Ahoy.

AsylumGuido · 08-13-2019, 03:37 PM

Originally Posted by Beastmode

I'm a project manager. All I do is work with data, risks and probability. Has nothing to do with anything though because if you do a basic search for the performance of RB's by age, it will bring up 50 sites stating the same thing; Once they hit 29 plus their performance drops off a cliff, not some gradual slope. Some have bunked that but it's almost nobody. The probability of him making it the whole season and killing it is almost zero. It's maybe 3-4% that happens but go ahead and believe what you want.

Well, I was a senior systems analyst (also wearing a senior business analyst's hat) with a degree in accounting. I actually dealt hands on with data for years "slicing and dicing" to fit the project manager's needs. I managed my share of projects, as well. I know probabilities as well as most and have dealt with health related probability data extensively given I designed all of the reporting for a HMO/PPO company for almost twenty years.

Without knowing strict input parameters your chart is meaningless. There are far too many variables involved. But, even if accurate, your chart shows a high probability that Murray should have one of his four most productive NFL seasons (his 6th) in 2019 and still perform at a high level for the two seasons following.

AsylumGuido · 08-13-2019, 03:50 PM

Originally Posted by Beastmode

You are betting on the 5th horse in the 6th race. There is a song about it called Chips Ahoy.

Once again, could you supply us all with the source of the chart that you posted? I see it was made using google charts.

08-13-2019, 12:39 PM	#301
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126	Re: And so it begins... The third to last column is RB performance based on his current age.
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126

08-13-2019, 12:46 PM	#302
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,051 Blog Entries: 3	Re: And so it begins... I don't think this was posted so thought I'd share RB stats from p/s game #1. Dwayne Washington 8 att 36 yards yds/att 4.5 Long - 12 Jaquizz Rodgers 5 att 15 yards yds/att 3.0 Long - 5 Alvin Kamara 4 att 11 yards yds/att 2.8 Long - 5 Devin Ozigbo 3 att 20 yards yds/att 6.7 Long - 11 Mr. Hurt (Murray) 3 att 14 yards yds/att 4.7 Long - 6

08-13-2019, 01:14 PM	#303
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,394	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by Beastmode He's hurt now and at an age associated with RB decline / slower recovery. Nothing personal. Hope he beats the the odds but those odds are low. What makes you think he's hurt now? He had a minor ankle procedure done just after the end of last season. Probably cleaning up some old scar tissue or such. That doesn't make him hurt. Recovering is not being hurt, but will still have a player miss some practice time. He's obviously recovered to the point that Payton has given him the go. It doesn't mean "he's hurt now". Well, do we have the bet? If you're so positive Murray won't last the season then you should be confident that Ozigbo will have more carries the final eight weeks of the season than Murray, right?
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

08-13-2019, 01:27 PM	#304
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126	Re: And so it begins... There is a high probability he will not make it to the finish line. Are you saying that is false. If so, I want to know what data you are using. A rational person, using real data, can see what happens when a RB is closer to 30 at the start of a season. It rarely works out. Almost never. I don't know what his current ailments are, Payton has been vague about it but he is dealing with something and the season has not started. If you want to crown him then crown him. I will also let you off the hook if it goes the path of law of averages.
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126

08-13-2019, 02:45 PM	#305
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,394	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by Beastmode The third to last column is RB performance based on his current age. Here's where your interpretation of the data is skewed. This chart demonstrates performance by season. This is Latavius Murray's SIXTH NFL season. According to your chart he has this season AND next season, his SEVENTH, to fall within the high performance area of the data distribution. Edit: Actually, I was incorrect ... according to your chart this should be basically tied for the third most production season of his career (the 6th column). So, according to your chart he has two full seasons of high production AFTER 2019!

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08-13-2019, 02:52 PM	#306
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,394	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by Beastmode There is a high probability he will not make it to the finish line. Are you saying that is false. If so, I want to know what data you are using. A rational person, using real data, can see what happens when a RB is closer to 30 at the start of a season. It rarely works out. Almost never. I don't know what his current ailments are, Payton has been vague about it but he is dealing with something and the season has not started. If you want to crown him then crown him. I will also let you off the hook if it goes the path of law of averages. Payton is vague about everything this time of year. But, the fact is he is practicing now and played in the first preseason game. If he was truly still dealing with an injury there is no way he would have been out there on the field. You stated "he is dealing with something," but that is where you are wrong. "he was dealing with something". Big difference.

08-13-2019, 02:59 PM	#307
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,394	Re: And so it begins... One more thing, Beast ... what is the source for your data chart? What time period does it cover? Is it based upon all RB's, starting RB's, RB's that share carries via committee? Murray has been in a committee based offense his entire career. FAR less wear and tear. I have worked with data and numbers for decades and know how misleading data can be if not observed in the proper context.

08-13-2019, 03:24 PM	#308
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by AsylumGuido One more thing, Beast ... what is the source for your data chart? What time period does it cover? Is it based upon all RB's, starting RB's, RB's that share carries via committee? Murray has been in a committee based offense his entire career. FAR less wear and tear. I have worked with data and numbers for decades and know how misleading data can be if not observed in the proper context. I'm a project manager. All I do is work with data, risks and probability. Has nothing to do with anything though because if you do a basic search for the performance of RB's by age, it will bring up 50 sites stating the same thing; Once they hit 29 plus their performance drops off a cliff, not some gradual slope. Some have bunked that but it's almost nobody. The probability of him making it the whole season and killing it is almost zero. It's maybe 3-4% that happens but go ahead and believe what you want. You are betting on the 5th horse in the 6th race. There is a song about it called Chips Ahoy.
Beastmode 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 9,126

08-13-2019, 03:37 PM	#309
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,394	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by Beastmode I'm a project manager. All I do is work with data, risks and probability. Has nothing to do with anything though because if you do a basic search for the performance of RB's by age, it will bring up 50 sites stating the same thing; Once they hit 29 plus their performance drops off a cliff, not some gradual slope. Some have bunked that but it's almost nobody. The probability of him making it the whole season and killing it is almost zero. It's maybe 3-4% that happens but go ahead and believe what you want. Well, I was a senior systems analyst (also wearing a senior business analyst's hat) with a degree in accounting. I actually dealt hands on with data for years "slicing and dicing" to fit the project manager's needs. I managed my share of projects, as well. I know probabilities as well as most and have dealt with health related probability data extensively given I designed all of the reporting for a HMO/PPO company for almost twenty years. Without knowing strict input parameters your chart is meaningless. There are far too many variables involved. But, even if accurate, your chart shows a high probability that Murray should have one of his four most productive NFL seasons (his 6th) in 2019 and still perform at a high level for the two seasons following.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

08-13-2019, 03:50 PM	#310
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,394	Re: And so it begins... Originally Posted by Beastmode You are betting on the 5th horse in the 6th race. There is a song about it called Chips Ahoy. Once again, could you supply us all with the source of the chart that you posted? I see it was made using google charts.

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