SmashMouth

New Orleans Saints (13-3)

Point differential in 2018: plus-151
Pythagorean expectation: 11.2 wins
Record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 5-1 (.833)
FPI projected strength of schedule: 11th-toughest

Let's add the other team from the NFC Championship Game into the mix, because the Saints are in a similar situation to the Rams. Nobody doubts they are a wildly talented team. They have probably the deepest roster in football and an excellent coach in Sean Payton. Even as I'm projecting a decline into the 10-win range, I would be shocked if New Orleans missed the playoffs.

To get to 13-3, though, a lot has to go right. Teams have to win a lot of close games, which is tough to do. The Saints went 5-1 in those one-score games a year ago, and some of those wins were pretty narrow. In Week 2, they beat the Browns by three points on a late field goal in a game in which kicker Zane Gonzalez missed two extra points and a potential game-tying field goal. In Week 3, they beat the Falcons in overtime after a late comeback, and New Orleans only failed to go to overtime against the Ravens in Week 7 because Justin Tucker, of all people, missed an extra point with 24 seconds left in a 24-23 game. A fourth-quarter fumble by backup running back Stevan Ridley with the Steelers up four points in Week 16 stopped a likely scoring drive in a game the Saints eventually won with a late touchdown pass.

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