Predicting the NFL teams likeliest to decline: Barnwell picks five for 2019

SmashMouth · 08-06-2019, 07:53 AM

New Orleans Saints (13-3)

Point differential in 2018: plus-151
Pythagorean expectation: 11.2 wins
Record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 5-1 (.833)
FPI projected strength of schedule: 11th-toughest

Let's add the other team from the NFC Championship Game into the mix, because the Saints are in a similar situation to the Rams. Nobody doubts they are a wildly talented team. They have probably the deepest roster in football and an excellent coach in Sean Payton. Even as I'm projecting a decline into the 10-win range, I would be shocked if New Orleans missed the playoffs.

To get to 13-3, though, a lot has to go right. Teams have to win a lot of close games, which is tough to do. The Saints went 5-1 in those one-score games a year ago, and some of those wins were pretty narrow. In Week 2, they beat the Browns by three points on a late field goal in a game in which kicker Zane Gonzalez missed two extra points and a potential game-tying field goal. In Week 3, they beat the Falcons in overtime after a late comeback, and New Orleans only failed to go to overtime against the Ravens in Week 7 because Justin Tucker, of all people, missed an extra point with 24 seconds left in a 24-23 game. A fourth-quarter fumble by backup running back Stevan Ridley with the Steelers up four points in Week 16 stopped a likely scoring drive in a game the Saints eventually won with a late touchdown pass.

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st thomas · 08-06-2019, 08:30 AM

Originally Posted by SmashMouth

New Orleans Saints (13-3)

Point differential in 2018: plus-151

Pythagorean expectation: 11.2 wins

Record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 5-1 (.833)

FPI projected strength of schedule: 11th-toughest

Let's add the other team from the NFC Championship Game into the mix, because the Saints are in a similar situation to the Rams. Nobody doubts they are a wildly talented team. They have probably the deepest roster in football and an excellent coach in Sean Payton. Even as I'm projecting a decline into the 10-win range, I would be shocked if New Orleans missed the playoffs.

To get to 13-3, though, a lot has to go right. Teams have to win a lot of close games, which is tough to do. The Saints went 5-1 in those one-score games a year ago, and some of those wins were pretty narrow. In Week 2, they beat the Browns by three points on a late field goal in a game in which kicker Zane Gonzalez missed two extra points and a potential game-tying field goal. In Week 3, they beat the Falcons in overtime after a late comeback, and New Orleans only failed to go to overtime against the Ravens in Week 7 because Justin Tucker, of all people, missed an extra point with 24 seconds left in a 24-23 game. A fourth-quarter fumble by backup running back Stevan Ridley with the Steelers up four points in Week 16 stopped a likely scoring drive in a game the Saints eventually won with a late touchdown pass.

more on ESPN

Kind of reminds me of the patriots . Great teams get breaks, makes their own breaks and don’t break . Go saints

neugey · 08-06-2019, 12:35 PM

The article does have a point in that 13+ is a pretty tough task to back up. We could certainly do it. But if we face some adversity and have to go on the road in the post-season then so be it, then we have an opportunity to prove we don't need the Superdome to excel and shut up some critics.

K Major · 08-06-2019, 12:49 PM

Stay under the radar all season long, then hit em "up side" the head come playoffs.

The Dude · 08-06-2019, 03:25 PM

Originally Posted by K Major

Stay under the radar all season long, then hit em "up side" the head come playoffs.

How are we supposed to fly “under the radar”? Most publications have us as the favorite to win the NFC. Every team on our schedule has the Saints circled as the team to beat. I think you are confused as to what the term “ under the radar” means. We are on every teams radar. Like Payton says “Prove them right”.

K Major · 08-06-2019, 03:38 PM

Originally Posted by The Dude

How are we supposed to fly “under the radar”? Most publications have us as the favorite to win the NFC. Every team on our schedule has the Saints circled as the team to beat. I think you are confused as to what the term “ under the radar” means. We are on every teams radar. Like Payton says “Prove them right”.

Teams aren't overly concerned about the Saints. They (most) still feel we'll find a way to repeat last two season's misery close game losses. Jason Whitlock, Pete Prisco, Coherd, ESPN and CBS'S of the world aren't buying this team.

If anyone on this board knows what "flying under the radar" means, it's me. I flew a Grumman F-14 Tomcat during the Gulf War code name Desert Shield on a escort mission back in 1991.

I'm hardly confused on the term. Don't get it twisted.

AsylumGuido · 08-06-2019, 04:33 PM

Originally Posted by K Major

Teams aren't overly concerned about the Saints. They (most) still feel we'll find a way to repeat last two season's misery close game losses. Jason Whitlock, Pete Prisco, Coherd, ESPN and CBS'S of the world aren't buying this team.

If anyone on this board knows what "flying under the radar" means, it's me. I flew a Grumman F-14 Tomcat during the Gulf War code name Desert Shield on a escort mission back in 1991.

I'm hardly confused on the term. Don't get it twisted.

By the way, K, thanks for your service. My dad was 30+years USAF. Tail gunner on a B-52, then Wing Gunner (still flew missions, but handled all the assignments), and retired as 8th Air Force Gunner. Two stints in Guam during Viet Nam and was actually the first enlisted USAF man to step foot in Viet Nam. His B-52 got commandeered by a General early in the conflict and had them land in Saigon.

K Major · 08-06-2019, 04:39 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

By the way, K, thanks for your service. My dad was 30+years USAF. Tail gunner on a B-52, then Wing Gunner (still flew missions, but handled all the assignments), and retired as 8th Air Force Gunner. Two stints in Guam during Viet Nam and was actually the first enlisted USAF man to step foot in Viet Nam. His B-52 got commandeered by a General early in the conflict and had them land in Saigon.

This ^^ ^^ is awesome stuff AsylumGuido.

The Dude · 08-06-2019, 04:50 PM

Originally Posted by K Major

Teams aren't overly concerned about the Saints. They (most) still feel we'll find a way to repeat last two season's misery close game losses. Jason Whitlock, Pete Prisco, Coherd, ESPN and CBS'S of the world aren't buying this team.

If anyone on this board knows what "flying under the radar" means, it's me. I flew a Grumman F-14 Tomcat during the Gulf War code name Desert Shield on a escort mission back in 1991.

I'm hardly confused on the term. Don't get it twisted.

So you know that under the radar means executing an offensive undetected. Nobody is going to sleep on them. Not at this level.
Flying under the radar as you did literally can’t be compared to flying under the radar figuratively because every individual has a different opinion as to What is above or under the radar.
It’s not a known fact. As a pilot you know or at least have intel that tells you an Iraqi radar is a Firefinder that was stolen or some piece of Russian trash.

AsylumGuido · 08-06-2019, 04:52 PM

Originally Posted by K Major

This ^^ ^^ is awesome stuff AsylumGuido.

Yeah. He never mentioned it until many years later. He was offered SAC Gunner's position near the end of his career, but didn't want to serve his last leg at Offutt. LOL. That's why he took the 8th AF job, instead. That way he got to retire in Louisiana that he loved. Not even from here.

08-06-2019, 07:53 AM	#1
SmashMouth I donated, did you? Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Mandeville, LA Posts: 38,125 Blog Entries: 29	Predicting the NFL teams likeliest to decline: Barnwell picks five for 2019 New Orleans Saints (13-3) Point differential in 2018: plus-151 Pythagorean expectation: 11.2 wins Record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 5-1 (.833) FPI projected strength of schedule: 11th-toughest Let's add the other team from the NFC Championship Game into the mix, because the Saints are in a similar situation to the Rams. Nobody doubts they are a wildly talented team. They have probably the deepest roster in football and an excellent coach in Sean Payton. Even as I'm projecting a decline into the 10-win range, I would be shocked if New Orleans missed the playoffs. To get to 13-3, though, a lot has to go right. Teams have to win a lot of close games, which is tough to do. The Saints went 5-1 in those one-score games a year ago, and some of those wins were pretty narrow. In Week 2, they beat the Browns by three points on a late field goal in a game in which kicker Zane Gonzalez missed two extra points and a potential game-tying field goal. In Week 3, they beat the Falcons in overtime after a late comeback, and New Orleans only failed to go to overtime against the Ravens in Week 7 because Justin Tucker, of all people, missed an extra point with 24 seconds left in a 24-23 game. A fourth-quarter fumble by backup running back Stevan Ridley with the Steelers up four points in Week 16 stopped a likely scoring drive in a game the Saints eventually won with a late touchdown pass. more on ESPN

08-06-2019, 08:30 AM	#2
st thomas Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: lafayette Posts: 7,753	Re: Predicting the NFL teams likeliest to decline: Barnwell picks five for 2019 Originally Posted by SmashMouth New Orleans Saints (13-3) Point differential in 2018: plus-151 Pythagorean expectation: 11.2 wins Record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 5-1 (.833) FPI projected strength of schedule: 11th-toughest Let's add the other team from the NFC Championship Game into the mix, because the Saints are in a similar situation to the Rams. Nobody doubts they are a wildly talented team. They have probably the deepest roster in football and an excellent coach in Sean Payton. Even as I'm projecting a decline into the 10-win range, I would be shocked if New Orleans missed the playoffs. To get to 13-3, though, a lot has to go right. Teams have to win a lot of close games, which is tough to do. The Saints went 5-1 in those one-score games a year ago, and some of those wins were pretty narrow. In Week 2, they beat the Browns by three points on a late field goal in a game in which kicker Zane Gonzalez missed two extra points and a potential game-tying field goal. In Week 3, they beat the Falcons in overtime after a late comeback, and New Orleans only failed to go to overtime against the Ravens in Week 7 because Justin Tucker, of all people, missed an extra point with 24 seconds left in a 24-23 game. A fourth-quarter fumble by backup running back Stevan Ridley with the Steelers up four points in Week 16 stopped a likely scoring drive in a game the Saints eventually won with a late touchdown pass. more on ESPN Kind of reminds me of the patriots . Great teams get breaks, makes their own breaks and don’t break . Go saints Crusader, saintsfan1976 and jeanpierre like this.

08-06-2019, 12:35 PM	#3
neugey Hu Dat! Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 6,697 Blog Entries: 13	Re: Predicting the NFL teams likeliest to decline: Barnwell picks five for 2019 The article does have a point in that 13+ is a pretty tough task to back up. We could certainly do it. But if we face some adversity and have to go on the road in the post-season then so be it, then we have an opportunity to prove we don't need the Superdome to excel and shut up some critics.

08-06-2019, 12:49 PM	#4
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,619 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Predicting the NFL teams likeliest to decline: Barnwell picks five for 2019 Stay under the radar all season long, then hit em "up side" the head come playoffs. jnormand and SmashMouth like this.

08-06-2019, 03:25 PM	#5
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,048	Re: Predicting the NFL teams likeliest to decline: Barnwell picks five for 2019 Originally Posted by K Major Stay under the radar all season long, then hit em "up side" the head come playoffs. How are we supposed to fly “under the radar”? Most publications have us as the favorite to win the NFC. Every team on our schedule has the Saints circled as the team to beat. I think you are confused as to what the term “ under the radar” means. We are on every teams radar. Like Payton says “Prove them right”.
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,048

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08-06-2019, 03:38 PM	#6
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,619 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Predicting the NFL teams likeliest to decline: Barnwell picks five for 2019 Originally Posted by The Dude How are we supposed to fly “under the radar”? Most publications have us as the favorite to win the NFC. Every team on our schedule has the Saints circled as the team to beat. I think you are confused as to what the term “ under the radar” means. We are on every teams radar. Like Payton says “Prove them right”. Teams aren't overly concerned about the Saints. They (most) still feel we'll find a way to repeat last two season's misery close game losses. Jason Whitlock, Pete Prisco, Coherd, ESPN and CBS'S of the world aren't buying this team. If anyone on this board knows what "flying under the radar" means, it's me. I flew a Grumman F-14 Tomcat during the Gulf War code name Desert Shield on a escort mission back in 1991. I'm hardly confused on the term. Don't get it twisted. jnormand, Crusader, AsylumGuido and 3 others like this.

08-06-2019, 04:33 PM	#7
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,220	Re: Predicting the NFL teams likeliest to decline: Barnwell picks five for 2019 Originally Posted by K Major Teams aren't overly concerned about the Saints. They (most) still feel we'll find a way to repeat last two season's misery close game losses. Jason Whitlock, Pete Prisco, Coherd, ESPN and CBS'S of the world aren't buying this team. If anyone on this board knows what "flying under the radar" means, it's me. I flew a Grumman F-14 Tomcat during the Gulf War code name Desert Shield on a escort mission back in 1991. I'm hardly confused on the term. Don't get it twisted. By the way, K, thanks for your service. My dad was 30+years USAF. Tail gunner on a B-52, then Wing Gunner (still flew missions, but handled all the assignments), and retired as 8th Air Force Gunner. Two stints in Guam during Viet Nam and was actually the first enlisted USAF man to step foot in Viet Nam. His B-52 got commandeered by a General early in the conflict and had them land in Saigon. jnormand, neugey, Rugby Saint II and 1 others like this.

08-06-2019, 04:39 PM	#8
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,619 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Predicting the NFL teams likeliest to decline: Barnwell picks five for 2019 Originally Posted by AsylumGuido By the way, K, thanks for your service. My dad was 30+years USAF. Tail gunner on a B-52, then Wing Gunner (still flew missions, but handled all the assignments), and retired as 8th Air Force Gunner. Two stints in Guam during Viet Nam and was actually the first enlisted USAF man to step foot in Viet Nam. His B-52 got commandeered by a General early in the conflict and had them land in Saigon. This ^^ ^^ is awesome stuff AsylumGuido. jnormand and AsylumGuido like this.

08-06-2019, 04:50 PM	#9
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,048	Re: Predicting the NFL teams likeliest to decline: Barnwell picks five for 2019 Originally Posted by K Major Teams aren't overly concerned about the Saints. They (most) still feel we'll find a way to repeat last two season's misery close game losses. Jason Whitlock, Pete Prisco, Coherd, ESPN and CBS'S of the world aren't buying this team. If anyone on this board knows what "flying under the radar" means, it's me. I flew a Grumman F-14 Tomcat during the Gulf War code name Desert Shield on a escort mission back in 1991. I'm hardly confused on the term. Don't get it twisted. So you know that under the radar means executing an offensive undetected. Nobody is going to sleep on them. Not at this level. Flying under the radar as you did literally can’t be compared to flying under the radar figuratively because every individual has a different opinion as to What is above or under the radar. It’s not a known fact. As a pilot you know or at least have intel that tells you an Iraqi radar is a Firefinder that was stolen or some piece of Russian trash.
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,048

08-06-2019, 04:52 PM	#10
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,220	Re: Predicting the NFL teams likeliest to decline: Barnwell picks five for 2019 Originally Posted by K Major This ^^ ^^ is awesome stuff AsylumGuido. Yeah. He never mentioned it until many years later. He was offered SAC Gunner's position near the end of his career, but didn't want to serve his last leg at Offutt. LOL. That's why he took the 8th AF job, instead. That way he got to retire in Louisiana that he loved. Not even from here. K Major likes this.

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